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FORGENT POWER SOLUTIONS INC (FPS)
NYSEIndustrialsElectrical Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-07-06
Intact
$47.47+1.30%
Close 2026-07-06 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
The thesis is that FPS's strong recent performance supports its growth potential. Revenue growth is expected to continue, but there is no recent earnings release to confirm this. The stock trades at a low confidence valuation, with peer multiples implying a price about 18% above where it trades. The risk is that FPS might cut guidance after recently raising it, which could hurt credibility. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-07-06
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Electrical Equipment & Parts
- Market cap
- $14.27B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2026-01-09
- Next earnings
- 2026-09-02
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $47.47. As of 2026-07-06. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Fair value· primary
$58.00
Range $58.00 – $58.00
vs price: -18% below
Method agreement : high · 1 method
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
3-year
—consensus
Range — – —
vs price: —
Method agreement —
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
5-year
—consensus
Range — – —
vs price: —
Method agreement —
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
high confidence
We can't anchor a clean multiple for FPS right now, so treat our $58 fair value as low-confidence. Analysts target $51–$63. Not investment advice.
Multiple (multiple)
—
peer — · own history —
Premium
—
Growth the price needs
-14%
our forecast —
Our fair value
$58.00
range $58.00 – $58.00
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is in the analyst range
(median $58.00) · 6 analysts · as of 2026-05-29
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
12-month view
What's priced in
The price sits about 14% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Compared to peers
Not enough peers to compare yet.
Compared to its own history
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
Not enough signal yet.
Earnings quality
Not enough signal yet.
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
stable4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Industrials names rated stable grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=2463).
74th pctl · Industrials
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bullish3 analysts, 89% Buyfor period ending 2026-09-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.25 → $0.26 (+2.4% / 30d). 2 raised, 0 cut, 3 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 89% of analysts rate Buy.
Material events
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: industrials is in (~3.2 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Provisional
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-07-06
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
- #1
Raise revenue guidance for fiscal 2026
GrowthManagement is focused on growing revenue and has raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance to reflect accelerating demand.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$347.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$879.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,745.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-07-06
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. The recent sharp drop in FPS's price suggests that the market may be repricing the reasons to own the stock. This decline of 27% from its recent high indicates a significant shift in sentiment, which could reflect concerns about the company's future performance.
as of 2026-07-06
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 17d
Watch for revenue guidance increase for fiscal 2026
Why it matters: An increase in revenue guidance shows management's confidence in demand. This could signal growth momentum.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Management expects revenue to be over $1,370M for fiscal 2026.
Disproves:Revenue guidance remains at or below $1,370M for fiscal 2026.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-05-151mo agoInvesting.com UK
Advances: Raise revenue guidance for fiscal 2026
Price target increase reflects strong bookings strength.
Strongly reinforcesUnconfirmed report
This sector is also watching
- Watch for faster revenue growth in Industrials.
- Watch for impacts from upcoming FOMC meetings
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like VRT, BE, and HUBB keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Industrials sector momentum should keep lifting FPS and other Industrials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
Downside triggers
- If FPS reverses and cuts guidance after recently raising (RAISED as of 2026-05-14), that's the worst kind of move: a credibility hit on top of the lower number. Stocks usually get punished disproportionately for this.
- If sector bellwethers like VRT, BE, and HUBB start missing or guiding lower, the Industrials tailwind helping FPS and other Industrials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.7% (say, below 2%), it hits FPS and other Industrials names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
- If FPS misses again next quarter like this past one (a big miss of -65% on the 2026-03-31 print), expect continued pressure. The Street usually keeps walking estimates down after consecutive misses.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-2611d agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On June 23, 2026, Forgent Power LLC (the “ Parent Borrower ”), a subsidiary of Forgent Power Solutions, Inc. (the “ Company ”), entered into that certain Amendment No. 1 (“ Amendment No. 1 ”) to its Credit Agreement, dated as of December 19, 2025 (the “ Existing Credit Agreement ”; as amended by Amendment No. 1, the “ Amended Credit Agreement ,” and the credit facilities thereunder, the “ Senior Credit Facilities ”), by and among Forgent Intermediat…
Capital allocationneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
No score history yet for this stock.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.