Woodward, Inc. (WWD)
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-09
$337.66-0.47%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-09
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Woodward grows revenue about 20% yearly with strong aerospace demand. Profit rises with better price and volume, reaching $167M operating income. Free cash flow stays healthy near $350M. Dividends rose 14% showing solid capital discipline.
Growth could slow if aerospace demand weakens or inflation pressures rise. Profit margins may shrink if costs outpace price gains. Capital spending or cash flow targets could slip, hurting returns.
The price is about 30% above our fair value, reflecting strong growth expectations. Analysts expect 14% revenue growth, which we see as achievable but already priced in.
Breaks if: Capital expenditures rise above $350M or fall below $250M in FY26
Maintain disciplined capital allocation including steady capital expenditures, free cash flow targets, and dividend payments.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on revenue growth and margin enhancement. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance, but the medium confidence level indicates some volatility in management execution.
The market appears to have priced in a premium compared to peers, reflecting expectations of continued strong performance. However, the valuation is considered expensive, suggesting that any negative news could lead to a reassessment of the stock.
Management is on track to achieve its priorities of increasing revenue and enhancing margins, as evidenced by strong growth in both aerospace and industrial sales. Near-term risks are moderate, with a low probability of missing earnings expectations, although past performance raises caution.
The long-term thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like SPCX, GE, and RTX. If these companies continue to perform well, it could support WWD's growth. Conversely, any negative guidance from these peers could impact WWD's momentum.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports this improvement. There are no new threats impacting the thesis.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: Free cash flow falls below $300M in FY26
Maintain disciplined capital allocation including steady capital expenditures, free cash flow targets, and dividend payments.
Breaks if: Operating income falls below $133M in Q2 FY26
Improve operating income through price realization, higher sales volumes, and operational investments across segments.
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below 14% in FY26
Continue driving strong sales growth across Aerospace and Industrial segments with focus on commercial OEM and transportation markets.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $996M in 2026-Q1 to $1.11B in 2026-Q3 (+11%). Aerospace sales increased 19% year over year to $709M in 2026-Q3, and Industrial sales grew 26% to $401M. Management consistently raised full-year sales guidance reflecting strong demand, indicating delivering trajectory.
“We delivered outstanding third quarter results, including significant sales growth and margin expansion in both segments.”
“We delivered outstanding second quarter results reflecting robust demand and strong execution across both segments.”
“Based on a strong start to the year, we are raising our full-year sales and earnings guidance.”
Overall, WWD's strong fundamentals are currently offset by sector challenges and high valuation. Monitoring sector performance will be crucial for the multi-year view. Not investment advice.