Woodward, Inc. (WWD)

NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-10-23

$303.55-0.43%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Woodward, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2027 · Q1
Revenue	—	1.08B
EPS	—	2.354
FY 2026 · Annual
EPS	$9.3–$9.5non-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	4.72B
EPS	—	10.728
FY 2028 · Annual
Revenue	—	5.18B
EPS	—	12.684

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Capital expenditures steady near $290M	A supporting condition in Woodward, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~290 million USD.	Intact	Capital expenditures rise above $350M or fall below $250M in FY26	Capital expenditures: $59.617M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~290 million USD. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 202659,617,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q3. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Free cash flow between $300M and $350M	Free cash flow stays healthy near $350M.	Intact	Free cash flow falls below $300M in FY26	Free cash flow: $87.056M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=300 million USD. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 202687,056,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q3. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income at least $167M in Q2 FY26	Profit rises with better price and volume, reaching $167M operating income.	Intact	Operating income falls below $133M in Q2 FY26	Operating income: $194.125M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=167.4 million USD. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 2026194,125,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q3. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue grows at least 20% YoY	A primary condition in Woodward, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=20% YoY.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 14% in FY26	Revenue growth: 21.22% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=20% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 202621.220148 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 794ca40a-05c7-40e5-ad81-881c3136d6c9. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$12.68

$12.70 → $12.68 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$5.18B

$5.19B → $5.18B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-10-01	$12.70	$5,190,258,470	7 / 11
2026-10-02	$12.70	$5,190,258,470	7 / 11
2026-10-03	$12.70	$5,190,258,470	6 / 10
2026-10-04	$12.70	$5,186,332,637	6 / 10
2026-10-05	$12.70	$5,186,332,637	6 / 10
2026-10-06	$12.70	$5,186,332,637	6 / 10
2026-10-07	$12.70	$5,186,666,803	6 / 10
2026-10-08	$12.66	$5,180,142,387	6 / 10
2026-10-09	$12.66	$5,180,142,387	5 / 10
2026-10-10	$12.66	$5,180,142,387	5 / 10
2026-10-11	$12.66	$5,180,142,387	6 / 11
2026-10-12	$12.66	$5,180,011,303	6 / 11
2026-10-13	$12.66	$5,180,011,303	6 / 11
2026-10-14	$12.66	$5,180,011,303	6 / 11
2026-10-15	$12.66	$5,180,011,303	6 / 11
2026-10-16	$12.66	$5,180,011,303	6 / 11
2026-10-17	$12.66	$5,180,011,303	6 / 11
2026-10-18	$12.68	$5,180,009,137	6 / 11
2026-10-19	$12.68	$5,180,009,137	6 / 11
2026-10-20	$12.68	$5,180,009,137	6 / 11
2026-10-21	$12.68	$5,184,086,411	6 / 11
2026-10-22	$12.68	$5,184,086,411	6 / 11
2026-10-23	$12.68	$5,184,086,411	6 / 11
2026-10-24	$12.68	$5,184,086,411	6 / 11

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	10	2
2026-06-01	10	2
2026-07-01	10	2
2026-08-01	10	2
2026-09-01	11	3
2026-10-01	10	3

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 10 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

JefferiesOct 2

$420.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$231.00$462.00

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Capital expenditures steady near $290MCapital expenditures: $59.617M
Free cash flow between $300M and $350MFree cash flow: $87.056M
Operating income at least $167M in Q2 FY26Operating income: $194.125M
Revenue grows at least 20% YoYRevenue growth: 21.22%

Next proof point

Nov 23, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-30.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Woodward, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a durable compounder with a focus on profitable growth and margin enhancement. The current thesis state is intact, although confidence has shifted to medium due to recent events and sector challenges.

What's priced into Woodward, Inc.

The valuation is considered expensive relative to peers, with a slight expectations gap indicating that the market has priced in some positive outcomes. However, the fragility is low, suggesting that the current price reflects justified expectations despite some execution concerns.

What the fundamentals likely do

Recent financial performance has been strong, with revenue and earnings growth. Management is on track with its priorities, but there is a moderate risk due to the potential for guidance cuts in the near term.

What Woodward, Inc. hinges on

The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like SPCX, GE, and RTX. If these companies continue to perform well, it could support WWD's growth. Conversely, any negative guidance from these peers could impact WWD's momentum.

Bottom line

Overall, WWD is navigating a complex environment with solid fundamentals but faces risks from sector dynamics. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.