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Rockwell Automation (ROK)
NYSEIndustrialsSpecialty Industrial MachinerySnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$466.43+0.62%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality and management's track record are neutral. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with ROK trading above typical levels compared to its peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 14% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, priced roughly in line with peer multiples. Key factors to watch include potential guidance cuts and sector trends, as these could significantly impact ROK's performance. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Specialty Industrial Machinery
- Market cap
- $51.11B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 1996-12-19
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-05
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $466.43. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfull
$407.28consensus
Range $382.30 – $425.12
vs price: +15% above
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfair
$606.74consensus
Range $569.55 – $617.65
vs price: -23% below
Method agreement — · 6 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Aligned with peersmedium confidence
At $459 ROK trades at 38× p/e, in line with its 32× p/e peer median. Our $392 fair value reflects that, medium confidence. Analysts: $445–$525. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
37.8x
peer 32.2x · own history 30.4x
Premium
1.2x peer
1.2x its own history
Growth the price needs
17%
our forecast 19%
Our fair value
$391.62
range $380.00 – $408.19
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fullfair12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The market is pricing in roughly 14% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 19%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated strong grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=3696).
81st pctl · Industrials
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 1.41x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=4440).
48th pctl · Industrials
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
Management & capital allocation
neutralEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bullishEPS revised +9.1% / 30d, n=22for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $3.09 → $3.37 (+9.1% / 30d). 20 raised, 0 cut, 22 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 48% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 8.3% above current price.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: is in (~3.2 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- strong
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$115.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$258.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,872.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- DownsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 4d
Watch for Q3 organic sales growth below 5%
Why it matters: This would signal a slowdown in demand and could impact future earnings guidance.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q3 organic sales growth was less than 5%.
Disproves:Q3 organic sales growth was more than 5%.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-06-116d agoYahoo! Finance
Advances: Increase EPS guidance for fiscal 2026
Major target hike indicates improved growth expectations.
Strongly reinforcesUnconfirmed report
This sector is also watching
- Watch for impacts from upcoming FOMC decisions
- Watch for revenue growth speeding up in Industrials
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like GEV, ETN, and PH keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Industrials sector momentum should keep lifting ROK and other Industrials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If ROK beats again next quarter like it did this past one (a solid beat of +15% on the 2026-03-31 print), the momentum tends to extend, with Street estimates ratcheting up and the stock typically following.
Downside triggers
- If ROK reverses and cuts guidance after recently raising (RAISED as of 2026-05-05), that's the worst kind of move: a credibility hit on top of the lower number. Stocks usually get punished disproportionately for this.
- If sector bellwethers like GEV, ETN, and PH start missing or guiding lower, the Industrials tailwind helping ROK and other Industrials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits ROK and other Industrials names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-051mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. Registrant's press release dated May 5, 2026, announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026, is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99 and is incorporated herein by reference.
Earnings preannouncementpositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-1.0 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.