Rockwell Automation (ROK)

NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-10-15

$426.23+1.00%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Rockwell Automation’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Dividend per share at least $1.38 in 2026-Q1	Dividends rose from $1.25 to $1.38 per share.	Intact	Dividend per share falls below $1.38 in 2026-Q1	Dividend per share: $1.38 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=1.38 USD per share. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 4, 20261.38 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 37e83d12-e15b-40c0-b287-85b471a511aa. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
EPS guidance for fiscal 2026 at least $11.88 per share	Rockwell Automation grows earnings with raised EPS guidance to $12.18 in 2026.	Under Pressure	EPS guidance falls below $11.88 for FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Fiscal 2026 diluted EPS guidance was raised from $10.75 - $11.55 in 2026-Q1 to $12.72 - $13.02 in 2026-Q2, and Adjusted EPS guidance from $11.40 - $12.20 to $13.00 - $13.30. Management consistently updated EPS guidance upward reflecting strong execution and margin expansion, delivering on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Revenue near $8.9 billion for fiscal 2026	A primary condition in Rockwell Automation's published investment case. The stated target is >=8.9 USD billion.	Under Pressure	Revenue guidance falls below $8.9 billion for FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Reported sales grew from $2.105B in 2026-Q1 to $2.313B in 2026-Q2, with organic sales growth consistently in the high single digits to double digits. Enterprise operating margin expanded from 19.0% in 2025-Q2 to 22.3% in 2026-Q2. Management is delivering on revenue growth and margin expansion. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$16.63

$16.67 → $16.63 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$10.18B

$10.19B → $10.18B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-10-01	$16.67	$10,193,991,247	10 / 18
2026-10-02	$16.67	$10,193,991,247	10 / 19
2026-10-03	$16.67	$10,193,991,247	10 / 19
2026-10-04	$16.67	$10,193,981,630	10 / 19
2026-10-05	$16.67	$10,193,981,630	10 / 19
2026-10-06	$16.67	$10,193,981,630	10 / 19
2026-10-07	$16.67	$10,193,981,630	10 / 19
2026-10-08	$16.67	$10,192,814,963	9 / 19
2026-10-09	$16.67	$10,192,814,963	9 / 19
2026-10-10	$16.67	$10,188,298,386	10 / 20
2026-10-11	$16.67	$10,188,298,386	10 / 20
2026-10-12	$16.67	$10,188,298,386	10 / 20
2026-10-13	$16.67	$10,188,298,386	10 / 20
2026-10-14	$16.67	$10,188,298,386	10 / 20
2026-10-15	$16.63	$10,183,403,650	10 / 20

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	14	13	2
2026-06-01	14	15	1
2026-07-01	13	14	1
2026-08-01	13	14	1
2026-09-01	13	15	2
2026-10-01	12	15	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 12 Buy / Strong Buy · 15 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Mizuho SecuritiesOct 15 · prior May 6

$445.00 → $430.00-3.4%

Wells FargoSep 24

$426.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$244.75$489.50

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Dividend per share at least $1.38 in 2026-Q1Dividend per share: $1.38 per share
EPS guidance for fiscal 2026 at least $11.88 per sharePublished status: Under Pressure
Revenue near $8.9 billion for fiscal 2026Published status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-18.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Rockwell Automation outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a stable growth opportunity with a focus on earnings and margin expansion. The current thesis is intact, supported by management's consistent execution and recent positive earnings results.

What's priced into Rockwell Automation

The market appears to have priced in a stretched valuation compared to peers, with expectations slightly above average. There is a moderate confidence in the current valuation, suggesting that investors are anticipating continued performance without significant downside risk.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are expected to remain stable, as management is on track to achieve its goals for revenue growth and margin expansion. However, there is a moderate risk of missing earnings, given recent trends in the sector.

What Rockwell Automation hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on sector performance, particularly the results of key competitors like GEV, PH, and TT. If these companies continue to perform well, it could positively influence ROK, while any negative shifts could pose risks.

Bottom line

Overall, ROK's fundamentals and management execution appear solid, but sector dynamics will be crucial in the coming years. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.