Reading RRX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track RRX free→Reading RRX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track RRX free→NYSEIndustrialsSpecialty Industrial MachinerySnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been neutral, while risk is elevated and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 39% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as both could significantly impact RRX's performance. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $222.60. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $219 RRX trades at 31× p/e, below its 33× p/e peer median. Our $339 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 35% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 11%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
Over the trailing year it converted 3.15x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $2.68 → $2.59 (-3.5% / 30d). 0 raised, 10 cut, 10 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 90% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 18.8% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$195.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$466.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,172.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows financial stability. This can make investors feel good about the company.
Confirms:The dividend remains at $0.35 per share for the next quarter.
Disproves:The dividend is cut below $0.35 per share.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for RRX yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On May 26, 2026, Jerry Morton, Executive Vice President & President, Industrial Powertrain Solutions, informed Regal Rexnord Corporation (the “Company”) of his intention to retire from the Company, effective after the close of business on December 31, 2026 (the “Retirement Date”). During a transitional period beginning June 1, 2026 through the Reti…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Electrical Components & Equipment.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
RRX Regal Rexnord | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 63 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
ETN Eaton Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 72 of 100 | full | moderate |
VRT Vertiv | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 65 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
EMR Emerson Electric | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 64 of 100 | fair | moderate |
BE Bloom Energy Corp. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 42 of 100 | expensive | high |
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1113).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on strategies to enhance revenue growth across business segments.
Commitment to maintaining a stable dividend payout of $0.35 per share.
Focus on improving operating income through strategic initiatives and cost management.
Why it matters: A new CEO can change company direction and strategy. This could affect growth.
Confirms:Aamir Paul officially starts as CEO by July 1, 2026.
Disproves:Aamir Paul's start date is delayed beyond July 1, 2026.
Why it matters: Better sales growth shows stronger demand and good work in all areas.
Confirms:Q2 organic sales growth exceeds 1.6% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 organic sales growth remains at or below 1.6% year over year.
Why it matters: A clear strategy from the new CEO can impact future growth and stability. Investors will look for direction.
Confirms one read:A public announcement will explain the new CEO's plan.
Confirms the other:No clear strategy is communicated by the new CEO within three months.
Why it matters: High growth in AMC orders shows strong demand in important markets like aerospace and data centers.
Confirms:AMC orders growth remains above 34% year over year.
Disproves:AMC orders growth drops below 34% year over year.
Why it matters: Higher operating income shows better cost management. This is important for making more money.
Confirms:Q2 operating income went up to $152.7 million.
Disproves:Q2 operating income decreases or stays the same.
Why it matters: Q2 results will show if the growth trend continues after a strong Q1.
Confirms:Q2 earnings report shows sales growth above 4.3% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 earnings report shows sales growth below 4.3% year over year.
Why it matters: Backlog growth shows strong future sales and demand for the business.
Confirms:Backlog increases by more than 6.7% sequentially in Q2.
Disproves:Backlog growth is less than 6.7% sequentially in Q2.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 6, 2026, Regal Rexnord Corporation issued a press release announcing its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On April 22, 2026, Regal Rexnord Corporation (the “Company”) announced that Aamir Paul will succeed Louis V. Pinkham as the Company’s Chief Executive Officer, effective no later than July 1, 2026, upon the conclusion of his responsibilities with his current employer, Schneider Electric SE (“Schneider”). The Board of Directors (the “Board”) of the C…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. As previously disclosed on October 29, 2025, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Regal Rexnord Corporation (the “Company”) is engaged in a search process to identify a successor to current Chief Executive Officer, Louis V. Pinkham. The CEO Search Committee is comprised of three independent directors and the committee is being assisted by a lead…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 4, 2026, Regal Rexnord Corporation issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2025. A copy is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report.