Regal Rexnord (RRX)

NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-10-23

$147.92-0.53%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Regal Rexnord’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-1.2%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

12.96 → 12.80 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	1.6B
EPS	—	2.788
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	6.19B
EPS	$10.6non-GAAP $5.42–$5.92GAAP	10.596
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	7.06B
EPS	—	12.801

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain dividend at $0.35 per share	The company keeps paying a $0.35 dividend per share.	Intact	Dividend per share falls below $0.35	Dividend per share: $0.35 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Dividend per share = $0.35. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 5, 20260.35 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 0928c369-9fee-4338-a7e6-f04b0b052023. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Maintained as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Dividend per share has consistently been $0.35 from 2025-Q1 through 2026-Q2. This steady dividend payment reflects management's commitment to capital return, with no changes reported, indicating delivery on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue growth near 12% in next 12 months	A primary condition in Regal Rexnord's published investment case. The stated target is >=11.7% YoY revenue growth.	Broken	YoY revenue growth falls below 7% next year	Revenue growth: 4.16% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=11.7% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 20264.16416 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 0928c369-9fee-4338-a7e6-f04b0b052023. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
EPS around $10.6 in fiscal 2026	A primary condition in Regal Rexnord's published investment case. The stated target is EPS ~10.6 USD per share.	Broken	EPS falls below $9.5 in fiscal 2026	Diluted EPS: $1.74 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS ~10.6 USD per share. Target period ends 2026-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q2. Source published Aug 5, 20261.74 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 0928c369-9fee-4338-a7e6-f04b0b052023. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Improve or maintain operating income near $153M	A supporting condition in Regal Rexnord's published investment case. The stated target is Operating income >= $153 million.	Under Pressure	Operating income falls below $150 million	Operating income: $215.2M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating income >= $153 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 5, 2026215,200,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 0928c369-9fee-4338-a7e6-f04b0b052023. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Operating income increased from $182.3M in 2025-Q2 to $215.2M in 2026-Q2, showing improvement despite inflationary pressures. However, operating income declined slightly from $159.7M in 2025-Q1 to $152.7M in 2026-Q1. Management reports margins resilient and EPS increasing, indicating mixed but generally positive delivery on operating income and margin resilience. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$12.80

$13.49 → $12.80 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$7.06B

$7.07B → $7.06B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$13.49	$7,072,423,229	7 / 8
2026-07-25	$13.49	$7,072,419,210	10 / 10
2026-07-26	$13.49	$7,072,419,210	10 / 10
2026-07-27	$13.49	$7,072,419,210	10 / 10
2026-07-28	$13.51	$7,084,330,933	6 / 8
2026-07-29	$13.51	$7,084,327,280	11 / 11
2026-07-30	$13.51	$7,084,327,280	11 / 11
2026-07-31	$13.51	$7,084,327,280	11 / 11
2026-08-01	$13.51	$7,084,330,933	7 / 9
2026-08-02	$13.51	$7,084,330,933	7 / 9
2026-08-03	$13.51	$7,084,330,933	7 / 9
2026-08-04	$13.51	$7,084,293,845	7 / 9
2026-08-05	$13.51	$7,084,327,280	11 / 11
2026-08-06	$13.51	$7,084,327,280	11 / 11
2026-08-08	$13.14	$7,069,954,140	11 / 11
2026-08-09	$13.19	$7,065,673,560	7 / 9
2026-08-10	$13.19	$7,065,673,560	7 / 9
2026-08-12	$13.11	$7,071,499,600	11 / 11
2026-08-13	$13.11	$7,071,499,600	11 / 11
2026-08-14	$13.19	$7,065,673,560	7 / 9
2026-08-15	$13.19	$7,065,673,560	7 / 9
2026-08-16	$13.19	$7,065,673,560	7 / 9
2026-08-17	$13.19	$7,065,673,560	7 / 9
2026-08-18	$13.19	$7,065,673,560	7 / 9
2026-08-19	$13.19	$7,065,673,560	7 / 9
2026-08-20	$13.11	$7,071,526,198	8 / 9
2026-08-21	$13.11	$7,071,526,198	8 / 9
2026-08-22	$12.99	$7,066,746,433	8 / 9
2026-08-23	$12.99	$7,066,746,433	8 / 9
2026-08-24	$12.99	$7,066,746,433	8 / 9
2026-08-25	$12.99	$7,066,746,433	8 / 9
2026-08-26	$12.99	$7,066,746,433	8 / 9
2026-08-27	$12.99	$7,066,746,433	8 / 9
2026-08-28	$12.99	$7,066,746,433	8 / 9
2026-08-29	$12.99	$7,066,746,433	8 / 9
2026-08-30	$12.99	$7,066,746,433	8 / 9
2026-08-31	$12.99	$7,066,746,433	8 / 9
2026-09-01	$12.99	$7,066,746,433	8 / 9
2026-09-02	$12.99	$7,066,746,433	8 / 9
2026-09-03	$12.99	$7,066,746,433	8 / 9
2026-09-04	$12.99	$7,066,746,433	8 / 9
2026-09-05	$12.99	$7,066,746,433	8 / 9
2026-09-06	$12.99	$7,066,746,433	8 / 9
2026-09-07	$12.99	$7,066,746,433	8 / 9
2026-09-08	$12.99	$7,066,746,433	8 / 9
2026-09-09	$12.99	$7,066,746,433	8 / 9
2026-09-10	$12.99	$7,066,746,433	8 / 9
2026-09-11	$12.99	$7,066,746,433	8 / 9
2026-09-12	$12.99	$7,066,746,433	8 / 9
2026-09-13	$12.99	$7,066,746,433	8 / 9
2026-09-14	$12.99	$7,066,746,433	8 / 9
2026-09-15	$12.99	$7,066,746,433	8 / 9
2026-09-16	$12.96	$7,084,246,433	7 / 9
2026-09-17	$12.96	$7,084,246,433	7 / 9
2026-09-18	$12.96	$7,084,246,433	7 / 9
2026-09-19	$12.96	$7,084,246,433	7 / 9
2026-09-20	$12.96	$7,084,246,433	7 / 9
2026-09-21	$12.96	$7,084,246,433	7 / 9
2026-09-22	$12.96	$7,084,246,433	7 / 9
2026-09-23	$12.96	$7,084,246,433	7 / 9
2026-09-24	$12.96	$7,084,246,433	7 / 9
2026-09-25	$12.96	$7,084,246,433	7 / 9
2026-09-26	$12.96	$7,084,246,433	7 / 9
2026-09-27	$12.96	$7,084,246,433	7 / 9
2026-09-28	$12.96	$7,084,246,433	7 / 9
2026-09-29	$12.96	$7,084,246,433	7 / 9
2026-09-30	$12.96	$7,084,246,433	7 / 9
2026-10-01	$12.92	$7,079,146,433	7 / 9
2026-10-02	$12.92	$7,079,146,433	7 / 9
2026-10-03	$12.92	$7,079,146,433	7 / 9
2026-10-04	$12.92	$7,079,146,433	7 / 9
2026-10-05	$12.92	$7,079,146,433	7 / 9
2026-10-06	$12.89	$7,079,146,433	7 / 9
2026-10-07	$12.88	$7,075,446,433	7 / 9
2026-10-08	$12.88	$7,075,446,433	7 / 9
2026-10-09	$12.88	$7,075,446,433	7 / 9
2026-10-10	$12.88	$7,075,446,433	7 / 9
2026-10-11	$12.81	$7,064,278,818	7 / 9
2026-10-12	$12.81	$7,064,278,818	7 / 9
2026-10-13	$12.80	$7,060,355,416	7 / 9
2026-10-14	$12.80	$7,060,355,416	7 / 9
2026-10-15	$12.80	$7,060,355,416	7 / 9
2026-10-16	$12.80	$7,060,355,416	7 / 9
2026-10-17	$12.80	$7,060,355,416	7 / 9
2026-10-18	$12.80	$7,060,355,416	7 / 9
2026-10-19	$12.80	$7,060,355,416	7 / 9
2026-10-20	$12.80	$7,060,355,416	7 / 9
2026-10-21	$12.80	$7,060,355,416	7 / 9
2026-10-22	$12.80	$7,060,355,416	7 / 9
2026-10-23	$12.80	$7,060,355,416	7 / 9
2026-10-24	$12.80	$7,060,355,416	7 / 9

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	9	1
2026-06-01	10	1
2026-07-01	10	1
2026-08-01	10	1
2026-09-01	10	1
2026-10-01	10	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 10 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

OppenheimerOct 8 · prior Jul 10

$255.00 → $200.00-21.6%

Goldman SachsSep 30

$216.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$140.25$280.50

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain dividend at $0.35 per shareDividend per share: $0.35 per share
Revenue growth near 12% in next 12 monthsPublished status: Broken
EPS around $10.6 in fiscal 2026Published status: Broken
Improve or maintain operating income near $153MPublished status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Nov 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.4%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-37.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Regal Rexnord outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on organic sales growth and market expansion. The current thesis state is intact, supported by recent earnings beats, but confidence has shifted to medium due to sector challenges.

What's priced into Regal Rexnord

The market appears to have a neutral valuation for RRX, with expectations slightly below peers. The current pricing reflects a justified valuation, indicating that while RRX is considered cheap compared to its peers, there is an expectations gap that could influence future performance.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to remain strong, with management focused on accelerating organic sales growth and maintaining a steady dividend. However, there is mixed progress in enhancing operating income and margin resilience, and recent financial performance has been strong despite some near-term risks.

What Regal Rexnord hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on sector performance, particularly the results and guidance of major players like GEV, PH, and TT. If these companies continue to perform well, it could provide a favorable backdrop for RRX, while any negative guidance could pose risks.