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Lockheed Martin (LMT)
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$536.14+1.09%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality and management's track record are neutral. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop presents a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 36% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. Key factors to watch include any potential guidance cuts from LMT and the performance of sector bellwethers like SPCX, GE, and RTX. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Aerospace & Defense
- Market cap
- $124.58B
- Employees
- 123,000
- IPO date
- 1995-05-15
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-28
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $536.14. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryinexpensive
$856.95consensus
Range $793.49 – $1090.27
vs price: -37% below
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$1568.23consensus
Range $1086.32 – $2447.47
vs price: -66% below
Method agreement — · 6 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peerslow confidence
At $531 LMT trades at 26× p/e, below its 38× p/e peer median. Our $844 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $575–$700. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
25.7x
peer 37.8x · own history 20.7x
Premium
0.7x peer
1.2x its own history
Growth the price needs
-37%
our forecast 6%
Our fair value
$844.04
range $796.08 – $1113.71
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is above the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
inexpensivecheap — quality intact12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 37% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 6%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated strong grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=3696).
96th pctl · Industrials
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 1.54x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=4440).
57th pctl · Industrials
Macro sensitivity
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
neutral10 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1113).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Neutral16 analysts, 29% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $7.19 → $7.21 (+0.4% / 30d). 3 raised, 2 cut, 16 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 29% of analysts rate Buy.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: industrials is in maturing, with decelerating (~3.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: Growth by revenue growth · theme aerospace-recovery.headwind
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 40.4% avg surprise
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$114.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$238.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,515.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- DownsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 22d
Watch for Q2 free cash flow below $1.5 billion
Why it matters: Free cash flow is key for funding growth and returning cash to shareholders. A drop signals issues.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q2 free cash flow reported below $1.5 billion.
Disproves:Q2 free cash flow reported above $1.5 billion.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-06-1617h agoFox Business
Partnership enhances defense capabilities and sales growth potential.
Strongly reinforcesUnconfirmed report
This sector is also watching
- Watch for impacts from upcoming FOMC decisions
- Watch for revenue growth speeding up in Industrials
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like SPCX, GE, and RTX keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Industrials sector momentum should keep lifting LMT and other Industrials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If LMT raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-04-23), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If LMT cuts guidance on the next call (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-04-23), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like SPCX, GE, and RTX start missing or guiding lower, the Industrials tailwind helping LMT and other Industrials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits LMT and other Industrials names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-231mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 23, 2026 , Lockheed Martin Corporation issued a news release reporting its financial results for the quarter ended March 29, 2026. A copy of the news release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended.
Earnings preannouncementneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-0.7 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.