Reading RKLB? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track RKLB free→Reading RKLB? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track RKLB free→NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact future performance. If RKLB cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 0 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $104.63. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Not enough valuation methods to set a 12-month read yet.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=3678).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.89x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.07 → $-0.07 (-5.5% / 30d). 1 raised, 5 cut, 11 covering analysts.
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 0 maintained. 79% of analysts rate Buy.
3 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 15.6% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Transition story with positive analyst positioning (often a turnaround setup).
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$430.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$959.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,301.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Achieving this revenue target shows strong growth and demand for services. It is key for investor confidence.
Confirms:Q2 2026 revenue reported in the range of $225M to $240M.
Disproves:Q2 2026 revenue falls below $225M.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Inclusion in Nasdaq-100 boosts visibility and potential investment.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Vice President, Corporate Controller and Chief Accounting Officer — Agostino Ricupati: Rocket Lab Corporation hired Agostino Ricupati as Chief Accounting Officer.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Aerospace & Defense.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
RKLB Rocket Lab Corp. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 36 of 100 | — | high |
GE GE Aerospace | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
RTX RTX Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 73 of 100 | fair | moderate |
BA Boeing | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 22 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
LMT Lockheed Martin | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
14 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Industrials names rated volatile grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=840).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Rocket Lab aims to achieve revenue between $225 million and $240 million for the second quarter of 2026.
Rocket Lab targets GAAP Gross Margins between 33% and 35% for the second quarter of 2026.
Rocket Lab aims to limit its adjusted EBITDA loss to between $20 million and $26 million for the second quarter of 2026.
Why it matters: Meeting this margin target shows better cost control. It also shows efficient operations.
Confirms:GAAP Gross Margins reported in the range of 33% to 35%.
Disproves:GAAP Gross Margins fall below 33%.
Why it matters: Limiting losses is crucial for financial health and investor trust. It reflects cost control.
Confirms:Adjusted EBITDA loss reported within $20M to $26M.
Disproves:Adjusted EBITDA loss exceeds $26M.
Why it matters: A smooth transition helps keep operations steady and financial reports clear. This is key for future plans.
Confirms one read:There are positive comments about the new CFO. They say he helps finances and operations.
Confirms the other:There are worries that the transition may hurt financial reports. It could also affect plans.
Inclusion in Nasdaq-100 may enhance visibility and investor interest.
Advances: Increase revenue to $225M-$240M in Q2 2026
Index upgrade supports growth narrative and revenue objectives.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, Rocket Lab Corporation (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 (the “Section”) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amende…
Other Events. On May 8, 2026, Rocket Lab Corporation (the “Company”) filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) a prospectus supplement to the prospectus included in the Company’s registration statement on Form S-3ASR filed with the SEC on March 11, 2025 (File No. 333-285707), as amended by the Post-Effective Amendment No. 1 filed with the SEC on May 27, 2025 (the “Registration Statement”), covering the resale by certain selling stockholders of up to 2,277,002 shares of the…
Other Items. On April 14, 2026, the Company completed the acquisition of all of the issued and outstanding ordinary shares of Mynaric pursuant to the Stock Purchase Agreement dated September 25, 2025 (together with the ancillary documents thereto and as amended, the “Purchase Agreement”), by and among the Company, Rocket Lab USA, Inc., a Delaware corporation and wholly-owned subsidiary of the Company (“Buyer”), OC III LVS LIII LP, a Delaware limited partnership (“OC III”) and CO Finance II LV…
The Company’s (as defined below) common stock, $0.0001 par value (“Common Stock”), issued in connection with the Acquisition (as defined below) was issued in reliance upon an exemption from the registration requirements of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), pursuant to Section 4(a)(2) thereof and/or Regulation D thereunder, as a transaction by an issuer not involving a public offering.