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TransDigm Group (TDG)
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$1301.20+1.87%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes, while the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, TDG is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair, but weakening. If TDG reverses and cuts guidance after recently raising, that could lead to a credibility hit. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Aerospace & Defense
- Market cap
- $70.26B
- Employees
- 16,500
- IPO date
- 2005-12-20
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-04
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $1301.20. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfair
$1311.28consensus
Range $1208.15 – $1383.13
vs price: -1% below
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$2627.83consensus
Range $2260.50 – $2779.68
vs price: -50% below
Method agreement — · 6 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peershigh confidence
At $1,278 TDG trades at 37× p/e, below its 38× p/e peer median. Our $1,315 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $1,350–$1,680. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
36.7x
peer 37.8x · own history 40.6x
Premium
1.0x peer
0.9x its own history
Growth the price needs
-3%
our forecast 19%
Our fair value
$1315.36
range $1212.72 – $1389.14
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is in the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fairfair — but weakening12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 3% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 19%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated strong grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=3696).
81st pctl · Industrials
Earnings quality
fragileOver the trailing year it converted 1.01x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated fragile grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
19th pctl · Industrials
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
Management & capital allocation
volatileEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
BullishEPS revised +3.0% / 30d, n=18for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $9.96 → $10.25 (+3.0% / 30d). 11 raised, 2 cut, 18 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 68% of analysts rate Buy.
Transition story with positive analyst positioning (often a turnaround setup).
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: industrials is in maturing, with decelerating (~3.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-15
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$123.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$259.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,528.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- Either wayHigh confidenceWeeksactive 22d
Watch for Q2 earnings results on May 5, 2026
Why it matters: Earnings results will show the company's financial health and growth path.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms one read:Q2 earnings show revenue growth exceeding 10% year over year.
Confirms the other:Q2 earnings report shows revenue growth below 0% year over year.
Material event
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for TDG yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for impacts from upcoming FOMC decisions
- Watch for revenue growth speeding up in Industrials
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like SPCX, GE, and RTX keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Industrials sector momentum should keep lifting TDG and other Industrials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If TDG beats again next quarter like it did this past one (a beat of +8% on the 2026-03-31 print), the momentum tends to extend, with Street estimates ratcheting up and the stock typically following.
Downside triggers
- If TDG reverses and cuts guidance after recently raising (RAISED as of 2026-05-05), that's the worst kind of move: a credibility hit on top of the lower number. Stocks usually get punished disproportionately for this.
- If sector bellwethers like SPCX, GE, and RTX start missing or guiding lower, the Industrials tailwind helping TDG and other Industrials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits TDG and other Industrials names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-051mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 5, 2026, TransDigm Group Incorporated (“TransDigm Group” or the “Company”) issued a press release (the “Press Release”) announcing its financial results for its second quarter ended March 28, 2026 and certain other information. A copy of this press release is furnished with this Current Report as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information contained in this item and in the accompanying exhibit shall not be incorpo…
Earnings preannouncementneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-4.1 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.