Reading HWM? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HWM free→Reading HWM? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HWM free→NYSE MKTIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong. Earnings quality is neutral. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive changes. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, HWM is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 74% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified. Rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. If HWM reverses and cuts guidance after recently raising, that would be a credibility hit.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $277.41. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $265 HWM trades at 64× p/e — 1.7× the 38× p/e peer median, and above its own 46× history. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $160 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts: $228–$330. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 65% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 18%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality.
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated strong grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=3696).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.19x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=4440).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.16 → $1.24 (+6.7% / 30d). 6 raised, 0 cut, 16 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 86% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 14.7% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$149.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$285.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,589.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The earnings report will provide insights on revenue growth, margins, and cash flow performance.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows revenue growth above 10% and strong cash flow generation.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows revenue growth below 10% and weak cash flow performance.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for HWM yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Other Events Segment Reorganization Howmet Aerospace Inc. (the “Company” or "Howmet Aerospace") is filing this Current Report on Form 8-K to recast historical segment information as set forth in the Company's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2025, as filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) on February 12, 2026 (“Original Report”). As previously disclosed and as reflected in the Company’s Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarterly period ended M…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$228.00 – $330.00 (median $295.00) · 14 analysts · as of 2026-05-10
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Aerospace & Defense.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
HWM Howmet Aerospace | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 87 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
GE GE Aerospace | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
RTX RTX Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 73 of 100 | fair | moderate |
BA Boeing | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 22 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
LMT Lockheed Martin | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
18 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Industrials names rated volatile grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=840).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 6 guided quarters · 15.1% avg surprise
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Howmet Aerospace aims for a 10% revenue growth for FY 2026.
Complete the acquisition of Consolidated Aerospace Manufacturing to enhance product offerings.
Maintain strong free cash flow performance with guidance set for FY 2026.
Howmet Aerospace projects EPS between $4.88 and $5.00 for FY 2026.
Why it matters: Confirming revenue guidance helps us see growth in aerospace markets.
Confirms:Q2 2026 revenue guidance meets or exceeds $2,400 million.
Disproves:Q2 2026 revenue guidance falls below $2,390 million.
Why it matters: Management aims for about 10% revenue growth. This shows strong market demand.
Confirms:Management confirms revenue growth guidance at or above 10% during the next earnings call.
Disproves:Management lowers revenue growth guidance to below 10% during the next earnings call.
Why it matters: Earnings per share guidance is important for understanding profits. It can impact stock performance.
Confirms:Management raises EPS guidance for FY 2026.
Disproves:Management lowers EPS guidance for FY 2026.
Why it matters: Hitting or beating this EPS target shows good earnings growth and efficiency.
Confirms:Adjusted EPS reported at or above $1.23 for Q2 2026.
Disproves:Adjusted EPS reported below $1.22 for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Free cash flow is vital for funding growth and shareholder returns. Guidance indicates financial health.
Confirms:Management provides free cash flow guidance at or above $1.7 billion for FY 2026.
Disproves:Management lowers free cash flow guidance below $1.7 billion for FY 2026.
Why it matters: Strong free cash flow supports ongoing investments and shareholder returns.
Confirms:Free cash flow exceeds $400 million in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Free cash flow falls below $350 million in Q2 2026.
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liability of that section, and shall not be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document filed under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Completion of Acquisition or Disposition of Assets On April 6, 2026, Howmet Aerospace Inc., a Delaware corporation (“Howmet Aerospace”), completed its previously announced purchase of Consolidated Aerospace Manufacturing, LLC (“Consolidated Aerospace Manufacturing”), a wholly owned subsidiary of Stanley Black & Decker, Inc., a Connecticut corporation (“Stanley Black & Decker”), for a cash purchase price of approximately $1.8 billion, subject to customary adjustments. Howmet Aerospace acquired…
The 2028 Notes will mature on March 3, 2028 and bear interest at a rate of 3.750% per annum, the 2029 Notes will mature on April 15, 2029 and bear interest at a rate of 3.900% per annum and the 2036 Notes will mature on April 15, 2036 and bear interest at a rate of 4.750% per annum. Accrued and unpaid interest on the 2028 Notes will be payable semi-annually in arrears on March 3 and September 3, commencing on September 3, 2026. Accrued and unpaid interest on the 2029 Notes will be payable sem…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of the Registrant Please refer to the discussion under