Howmet Aerospace (HWM)

NYSE MKTIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-10-15

$220.96+0.57%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Howmet Aerospace’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

6.50 → 6.51 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 13 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 13 to 13; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Complete and integrate Consolidated Aerospace acquisition	The acquisition of Consolidated Aerospace adds new products and sales.	Intact	acquisition integration delays or revenue contribution miss in 2026	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. The $1.8 billion CAM acquisition was completed in 2026-Q2 and integration is on track. Fastening Systems segment revenue grew 37% YoY to $589 million in 2026-Q2, reflecting CAM contributions. Management is delivering on acquisition completion and integration. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Generate free cash flow about $1.75 billion in 2026	Free cash flow is strong at $1.75 billion.	Intact	free cash flow falls below $1.5 billion in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Free cash flow increased from $134M in 2025-Q1 to $479M in 2026-Q2. Year to date through July 2026, $800M of common stock repurchases were completed, exceeding 2025 total. Management is delivering strong cash generation and disciplined capital allocation. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Maintain gross margin near 30.3% in 2026	A supporting condition in Howmet Aerospace's published investment case. The stated target is ~30.3%.	Intact	gross margin falls below 28% in FY26	Gross margin: 37.34% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~30.3%. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 202637.338045 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Grow revenue about 10% in 2026	A primary condition in Howmet Aerospace's published investment case. The stated target is >=10% YoY growth.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 7% in FY26	Revenue growth: 24.06% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=10% YoY growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 202624.062348 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 76749cbc-2dc3-427e-abe0-4da3eb59dff7. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Revenue grew from $1.94B in 2025-Q1 to $2.55B in 2026-Q2 (+24% YoY in 2026-Q2). Full year 2026 revenue guidance is approximately $10.05B, up about 10% year over year. Management consistently emphasizes growth across all major markets and the trajectory is delivering. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$6.51

$6.06 → $6.51 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$11.58B

$11.04B → $11.58B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$6.06	$11,038,125,519	13 / 14
2026-07-25	$6.05	$11,036,549,730	20 / 19
2026-07-26	$6.06	$11,038,125,519	13 / 14
2026-07-27	$6.05	$11,036,549,730	20 / 19
2026-07-28	$6.06	$11,038,125,519	13 / 14
2026-07-29	$6.05	$11,037,844,460	20 / 19
2026-07-30	$6.06	$11,039,365,519	13 / 14
2026-07-31	$6.06	$11,039,365,519	13 / 14
2026-08-01	$6.06	$11,039,365,519	13 / 14
2026-08-02	$6.06	$11,039,365,519	13 / 14
2026-08-03	$6.06	$11,039,365,519	13 / 14
2026-08-04	$6.05	$11,037,844,460	20 / 19
2026-08-05	$6.06	$11,039,365,519	13 / 14
2026-08-06	$6.05	$11,037,844,460	20 / 19
2026-08-07	$6.06	$11,039,815,519	13 / 14
2026-08-08	$6.06	$11,039,815,519	13 / 14
2026-08-09	$6.15	$11,173,544,100	18 / 17
2026-08-10	$6.15	$11,173,544,100	18 / 17
2026-08-12	$6.06	$11,039,815,519	13 / 14
2026-08-13	$6.06	$11,039,815,519	13 / 14
2026-08-14	$6.06	$11,039,815,519	13 / 14
2026-08-15	$6.06	$11,039,815,519	13 / 14
2026-08-16	$6.06	$11,039,815,519	13 / 14
2026-08-17	$6.06	$11,039,815,519	13 / 14
2026-08-18	$6.06	$11,039,815,519	13 / 14
2026-08-19	$6.06	$11,039,815,519	13 / 14
2026-08-20	$6.41	$11,403,579,402	13 / 14
2026-08-21	$6.42	$11,426,929,402	13 / 14
2026-08-22	$6.42	$11,426,929,402	13 / 14
2026-08-23	$6.42	$11,426,929,402	13 / 14
2026-08-24	$6.42	$11,426,929,402	13 / 14
2026-08-25	$6.43	$11,435,129,402	13 / 14
2026-08-26	$6.43	$11,435,129,402	13 / 14
2026-08-27	$6.43	$11,435,129,402	13 / 14
2026-08-28	$6.43	$11,435,129,402	13 / 14
2026-08-29	$6.46	$11,435,129,402	13 / 14
2026-08-30	$6.46	$11,435,129,402	13 / 14
2026-08-31	$6.46	$11,435,129,402	13 / 14
2026-09-01	$6.46	$11,435,129,402	13 / 14
2026-09-02	$6.46	$11,435,129,402	13 / 14
2026-09-03	$6.46	$11,435,129,402	13 / 14
2026-09-04	$6.51	$11,466,943,269	13 / 14
2026-09-05	$6.51	$11,466,943,269	13 / 14
2026-09-06	$6.51	$11,466,943,269	13 / 14
2026-09-07	$6.51	$11,466,943,269	13 / 14
2026-09-08	$6.51	$11,466,943,269	13 / 14
2026-09-09	$6.51	$11,466,943,269	13 / 14
2026-09-10	$6.51	$11,466,943,271	13 / 14
2026-09-11	$6.51	$11,466,943,271	13 / 14
2026-09-12	$6.50	$11,466,943,271	13 / 13
2026-09-13	$6.50	$11,466,943,271	13 / 13
2026-09-14	$6.50	$11,466,943,271	13 / 13
2026-09-15	$6.50	$11,466,943,271	13 / 13
2026-09-16	$6.51	$11,492,760,258	14 / 14
2026-09-17	$6.51	$11,492,760,258	14 / 14
2026-09-18	$6.51	$11,492,760,258	14 / 14
2026-09-19	$6.51	$11,492,760,258	14 / 14
2026-09-20	$6.51	$11,492,760,258	14 / 14
2026-09-21	$6.51	$11,492,760,258	14 / 14
2026-09-22	$6.51	$11,492,760,258	14 / 14
2026-09-23	$6.51	$11,492,760,258	14 / 14
2026-09-24	$6.51	$11,492,760,258	14 / 14
2026-09-25	$6.51	$11,492,760,258	14 / 14
2026-09-26	$6.51	$11,492,760,258	14 / 14
2026-09-27	$6.51	$11,492,760,258	14 / 14
2026-09-28	$6.51	$11,492,760,258	14 / 14
2026-09-29	$6.52	$11,494,187,315	14 / 14
2026-09-30	$6.52	$11,496,021,985	14 / 14
2026-10-01	$6.52	$11,496,021,985	14 / 14
2026-10-02	$6.52	$11,496,021,985	14 / 14
2026-10-03	$6.52	$11,496,021,985	14 / 14
2026-10-04	$6.52	$11,496,021,985	14 / 14
2026-10-05	$6.52	$11,496,021,985	14 / 14
2026-10-06	$6.52	$11,496,831,509	14 / 14
2026-10-07	$6.52	$11,494,257,537	14 / 14
2026-10-08	$6.52	$11,495,211,879	14 / 14
2026-10-09	$6.51	$11,488,830,926	13 / 14
2026-10-10	$6.51	$11,488,830,926	13 / 14
2026-10-11	$6.54	$11,565,354,736	13 / 14
2026-10-12	$6.54	$11,565,354,736	13 / 14
2026-10-13	$6.55	$11,573,743,831	13 / 14
2026-10-14	$6.51	$11,575,298,355	13 / 14
2026-10-15	$6.51	$11,575,298,355	13 / 14

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	20	3
2026-06-01	19	3
2026-07-01	19	3
2026-08-01	19	3
2026-09-01	20	3
2026-10-01	20	3

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 20 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

BernsteinOct 7 · prior Aug 24

$328.00 → $298.00-9.1%

$0$180.40$360.80

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Complete and integrate Consolidated Aerospace acquisitionQualitative condition
Generate free cash flow about $1.75 billion in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Maintain gross margin near 30.3% in 2026Gross margin: 37.34%
Grow revenue about 10% in 2026Revenue growth: 24.06%

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-25.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Howmet Aerospace outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on consistent revenue growth and strong cash flow. The current thesis state is intact, supported by recent earnings beats and successful integration of acquisitions.

What's priced into Howmet Aerospace

The market appears to be pricing in a justified valuation, though it is considered expensive compared to peers. There is a low expectations gap, indicating that investors are not overly optimistic about future performance.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to remain strong, as management is on track to achieve revenue growth targets and maintain free cash flow. However, there is a moderate risk due to the sector backdrop, which could impact future performance.

What Howmet Aerospace hinges on

The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like SPCX, GE, and RTX. If these companies continue to perform well, it could support HWM's growth, but any negative guidance from them could pose risks.