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Track GE free→GE Aerospace (GE)
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-06-15
Intact
$342.35+2.10%
Close 2026-06-15 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and risk is moderate. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and compared with sector peers, GE is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 32% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. If GE cuts guidance on the next call, that's a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-15
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Aerospace & Defense
- Market cap
- $350.33B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 1962-01-02
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $342.35. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$251.69consensus
Range $231.82 – $285.79
vs price: +36% above
Method agreement — · 8 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfair
$432.66consensus
Range $377.47 – $568.23
vs price: -21% below
Method agreement — · 6 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Durable premiumlow confidence
At $342 the market pays 51× p/e — above the 38× p/e peer median but in line with its own 47× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $252 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts: $355–$425. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
50.7x
peer 37.8x · own history 47.2x
Premium
1.3x peer
1.1x its own history
Growth the price needs
36%
our forecast -4%
Our fair value
$251.69
range $208.65 – $285.79
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensivefair — but weakening12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The market is pricing in roughly 36% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about -4%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated strong grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=3696).
73rd pctl · Industrials
Earnings quality
fragileOver the trailing year it converted 1.03x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated fragile grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
21st pctl · Industrials
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
Management & capital allocation
neutralEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Bullish18 analysts, 86% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $1.85 → $1.85 (+0.2% / 30d). 2 raised, 2 cut, 18 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 86% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 21.8% above current price.
Material events
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: industrials is in (~3.2 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$157.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$344.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,085.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-15
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- label change · valuation_labelsmall change
Valuation label changed from 'full' to 'expensive'.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceMonthsactive 18d
Watch for Q2 revenue guidance maintenance
Why it matters: Maintaining revenue guidance shows GE Aerospace can meet its growth goals. This is key for investor confidence.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:GE Aerospace says full-year revenue guidance is the same after the Q2 earnings call.
Disproves:GE Aerospace lowers full-year revenue guidance during the Q2 earnings call.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for GE yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for impacts from upcoming FOMC decisions
- Watch for revenue growth speeding up in Industrials
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like SPCX, RTX, and BA keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Industrials sector momentum should keep lifting GE and other Industrials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If GE raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-04-21), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If GE cuts guidance on the next call (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-04-21), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like SPCX, RTX, and BA start missing or guiding lower, the Industrials tailwind helping GE and other Industrials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits GE and other Industrials names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-116d agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On June 8, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of General Electric Company, operating as GE Aerospace (the “Company”), elected Judson Althoff to the Board, effective June 24, 2026. In connection with this change, the Board will increase its size to accommodate the election of Mr. Althoff. A copy of the press release announcing Mr. Althoff’s…
Executive changeneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
About the same as last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.