GE Aerospace (GE)

NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-10-15

$313.83+0.59%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge GE Aerospace’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.2%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

9.10 → 9.12 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 10 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
EPS at least $7.1 per share	A supporting condition in GE Aerospace's published investment case. The stated target is >= $7.1 per share.	Under Pressure	EPS falls below $7.1 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $2.26 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $7.1 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 16, 20262.26 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: fe6534af-b595-49f6-ba13-3c82dabe1f25. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Free cash flow at least $8 billion	Free cash flow is solid at about $8 billion.	Intact	Free cash flow falls below $8 billion in FY26	Free cash flow: $2.86B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $8 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 16, 20262,860,000,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating margin at least 21.4%	A primary condition in GE Aerospace's published investment case. The stated target is >= 21.4%.	Under Pressure	Operating margin falls below 21.4% in FY26	Operating margin: 18.65% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= 21.4%. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 16, 202618.645591 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Full-year revenue at least $42.3 billion	A primary condition in GE Aerospace's published investment case. The stated target is >= $42.3 billion.	Improving	Full-year revenue falls below $42.3 billion in FY26	Revenue: $13.349B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $42.3 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 16, 202613,349,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: fe6534af-b595-49f6-ba13-3c82dabe1f25. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$9.12

$8.97 → $9.12 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$55.85B

$55.47B → $55.85B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$8.97	$55,467,740,178	10 / 12
2026-07-25	$9.75	$55,560,857,830	12 / 17
2026-07-26	$9.02	$55,359,591,124	10 / 13
2026-07-27	$9.75	$55,560,857,830	12 / 17
2026-07-28	$9.02	$55,359,591,124	10 / 13
2026-07-29	$9.72	$55,675,430,070	13 / 17
2026-07-30	$9.72	$55,675,430,070	13 / 17
2026-07-31	$9.04	$55,474,173,615	11 / 13
2026-08-01	$9.04	$55,474,173,615	11 / 13
2026-08-02	$9.11	$55,851,746,966	11 / 13
2026-08-03	$9.72	$55,675,424,190	13 / 17
2026-08-04	$9.72	$55,675,424,190	13 / 17
2026-08-05	$9.72	$55,675,424,190	13 / 17
2026-08-06	$9.11	$55,851,746,966	11 / 13
2026-08-07	$9.11	$55,851,746,966	11 / 13
2026-08-08	$9.72	$55,675,424,190	13 / 17
2026-08-09	$9.72	$55,675,424,190	13 / 17
2026-08-10	$9.72	$55,675,424,190	13 / 17
2026-08-12	$9.72	$55,675,424,190	13 / 17
2026-08-13	$9.11	$55,851,746,966	11 / 13
2026-08-14	$9.11	$55,851,746,966	11 / 13
2026-08-15	$9.11	$55,851,746,966	11 / 13
2026-08-16	$9.11	$55,851,746,966	11 / 13
2026-08-17	$9.11	$55,851,746,966	11 / 13
2026-08-18	$9.11	$55,851,746,966	11 / 13
2026-08-19	$9.11	$55,851,746,966	11 / 13
2026-08-20	$9.11	$55,851,746,967	11 / 13
2026-08-21	$9.11	$55,851,746,967	11 / 13
2026-08-22	$9.11	$55,851,746,967	11 / 13
2026-08-23	$9.11	$55,851,746,967	11 / 13
2026-08-24	$9.11	$55,851,746,967	11 / 13
2026-08-25	$9.11	$55,851,746,967	11 / 13
2026-08-26	$9.11	$55,851,746,967	11 / 13
2026-08-27	$9.11	$55,851,746,967	11 / 13
2026-08-28	$9.11	$55,851,746,967	11 / 13
2026-08-29	$9.11	$55,851,746,967	11 / 13
2026-08-30	$9.11	$55,851,746,967	11 / 13
2026-08-31	$9.11	$55,851,746,967	11 / 13
2026-09-01	$9.11	$55,851,746,967	11 / 13
2026-09-02	$9.11	$55,851,746,967	11 / 13
2026-09-03	$9.11	$55,851,746,967	11 / 13
2026-09-04	$9.11	$55,851,746,967	11 / 13
2026-09-05	$9.11	$55,851,746,967	11 / 13
2026-09-06	$9.11	$55,851,746,967	11 / 13
2026-09-07	$9.11	$55,851,746,967	11 / 13
2026-09-08	$9.11	$55,851,746,967	11 / 13
2026-09-09	$9.11	$55,851,739,318	11 / 13
2026-09-10	$9.10	$55,782,401,711	10 / 12
2026-09-11	$9.10	$55,782,401,711	11 / 12
2026-09-12	$9.10	$55,782,401,711	10 / 12
2026-09-13	$9.10	$55,782,401,711	10 / 12
2026-09-14	$9.10	$55,782,401,711	10 / 12
2026-09-15	$9.10	$55,772,920,881	10 / 12
2026-09-16	$9.10	$55,772,920,881	10 / 12
2026-09-17	$9.10	$55,772,914,999	10 / 12
2026-09-18	$9.10	$55,772,914,999	10 / 12
2026-09-19	$9.10	$55,772,914,999	10 / 12
2026-09-20	$9.10	$55,772,920,881	10 / 12
2026-09-21	$9.10	$55,772,920,880	10 / 12
2026-09-22	$9.10	$55,772,920,880	10 / 12
2026-09-23	$9.10	$55,772,920,880	10 / 12
2026-09-24	$9.10	$55,772,920,880	10 / 12
2026-09-25	$9.10	$55,785,733,962	10 / 12
2026-09-26	$9.10	$55,785,733,962	10 / 12
2026-09-27	$9.10	$55,785,733,962	10 / 12
2026-09-28	$9.10	$55,785,733,962	10 / 12
2026-09-29	$9.09	$55,775,339,734	10 / 12
2026-09-30	$9.09	$55,775,339,734	10 / 12
2026-10-01	$9.09	$55,775,339,734	10 / 12
2026-10-02	$9.09	$55,775,339,734	10 / 12
2026-10-03	$9.09	$55,775,339,733	10 / 12
2026-10-04	$9.09	$55,775,339,733	10 / 12
2026-10-05	$9.09	$55,775,339,733	10 / 12
2026-10-06	$9.10	$55,823,633,851	10 / 12
2026-10-07	$9.10	$55,823,651,498	10 / 12
2026-10-08	$9.10	$55,823,710,323	10 / 12
2026-10-09	$9.11	$55,823,710,323	10 / 12
2026-10-10	$9.11	$55,823,710,323	10 / 12
2026-10-11	$9.12	$55,851,475,029	10 / 11
2026-10-12	$9.12	$55,851,475,029	10 / 11
2026-10-13	$9.12	$55,851,475,029	10 / 11
2026-10-14	$9.12	$55,851,475,029	10 / 11
2026-10-15	$9.12	$55,851,475,029	10 / 11

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	19	2	1
2026-06-01	19	2	2
2026-07-01	19	2	2
2026-08-01	19	2	1
2026-09-01	19	3	1
2026-10-01	19	3	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 19 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

JefferiesSep 23 · prior Jul 2

$455.00 → $435.00-4.4%

$0$250.25$500.50

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

EPS at least $7.1 per sharePublished status: Under Pressure
Free cash flow at least $8 billionFree cash flow: $2.86B
Operating margin at least 21.4%Published status: Under Pressure
Full-year revenue at least $42.3 billionRevenue: $13.349B

Next proof point

Oct 20, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-20.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

GE Aerospace outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on growth in key segments. The current thesis state is stable, supported by strong recent financial performance and management's consistent execution on growth priorities.

What's priced into GE Aerospace

The market appears to price in a high valuation, reflecting a premium compared to peers. There is a slight expectations gap, indicating that while the stock is considered expensive, it is justified by the company's recent performance and management's guidance.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to remain strong, as management continues to raise guidance and deliver on growth in the Commercial Engines & Services and Defense & Propulsion Technologies segments. The near-term risk of missing guidance is low, but past performance suggests caution.

What GE Aerospace hinges on

The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like SPCX, RTX, and BA. If these companies continue to perform well, it could provide a favorable backdrop for GE. Conversely, any negative guidance from these peers could impact GE's momentum.