NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-08-31
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Create your account →Warn: Primary pillar under pressure — Operating margin at least 21.4%: FY26 guidance 21.4% vs 21.4% target.
GE Aerospace grows revenue about 7% a year with strong defense contracts. Profit margins stay above 21%. Free cash flow is solid at about $8 billion. New tech deals boost future growth.
Revenue growth slows below 7%. Profit margins shrink under 20%. Free cash flow falls below $7 billion. Guidance cuts show risks to earnings.
The price is about 32% above our fair value near $280. Analysts expect 7% revenue growth. Our fair value is 24% below the Street median, so the market is stretched versus fundamentals.
Breaks if: EPS falls below $7.1 in FY26
Breaks if: Free cash flow falls below $8 billion in FY26
Breaks if: Operating margin falls below 21.4% in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on growth in key segments. The current thesis is stable, supported by strong recent financial performance and consistent management execution.
The valuation is considered expensive compared to peers, reflecting high expectations for continued growth. The market appears to be pricing in a premium due to recent strong results, but there is a notable expectations gap.
Fundamentals are likely to remain strong, as management has consistently raised guidance and delivered solid results in key segments. However, there is a moderate risk due to the potential for sector-wide influences that could impact performance.
The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like SPCX, RTX, and BA. If these companies continue to perform well, it could support GE's growth. Conversely, any negative shifts in their performance could pose risks to GE's momentum.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports this improvement. GE Aerospace won a new contract, boosting revenue and profit expectations. The company is investing in next-generation engine technologies. There are no new threats to the thesis.
as of 2026-08-31
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: Full-year revenue falls below $42.3 billion in FY26
GE Aerospace aims to maintain its full-year revenue guidance, trending toward the high-end of the range.
Overall, GE's position appears solid for the next 1 to 3 years, but it is important to monitor sector trends closely. Not investment advice.
