Reading HEI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HEI free→Reading HEI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HEI free→NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and management's recent track record has been steady. Earnings quality is neutral, and risk is moderate, while the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 58% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. If HEI cuts guidance on the next call, that's a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $336.49. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $336 HEI trades at 60× p/e — 1.6× the 38× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $215 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts: $350–$410. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 56% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 27%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality.
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated strong grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=3696).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.26x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=4440).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.44 → $1.48 (+3.1% / 30d). 11 raised, 2 cut, 19 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 6 maintained. 65% of analysts rate Buy.
4 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 14.1% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$140.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$279.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,711.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Key reports on retail sales and the FOMC could impact market sentiment and HEICO's outlook.
Confirms one read:Retail sales report shows growth above 1% month over month.
Confirms the other:Retail sales report shows a decline or flat growth month over month.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for HEI yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
No upside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
No downside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 27, 2026, HEICO Corporation (the "Company") issued a press release announcing its results of operations for the three and six months ended April 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information furnished pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchange Act”) or…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$350.00 – $410.00 (median $375.00) · 5 analysts · as of 2026-06-01
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Aerospace & Defense.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
HEI HEICO CORP NEW | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 71 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
GE GE Aerospace | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 69 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
RTX RTX Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 69 of 100 | fair | moderate |
BA Boeing | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 22 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
LMT Lockheed Martin | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 59 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Industrials names rated stable grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=792).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing net sales in both the Flight Support Group and Electronic Technologies Group through organic demand and recent acquisitions.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $1030.2M in 2025-Q1 to $1375.7M in 2026-Q2, indicating strong growth trajectory. Management's focus on increasing net sales through organic demand and acquisitions is delivering results.
“We expect increased net sales at both the Flight Support Group and Electronic Technologies Group...”
“We expect continued sales momentum across both the Flight Support Group and the Electronic Technologies Group...”
“We anticipate net sales growth across both the Flight Support Group and Electronic Technologies Group...”
Continue to forecast and maintain strong cash flow from operations to support business activities.
Newly stated in 2025-Q3. Cash from operations increased from $203.0M in 2025-Q1 to $291.9M in 2026-Q2, showing a positive trajectory. The company is delivering on its commitment to maintain strong cash flow from operations.
“We continue to forecast strong cash flow from operations for fiscal 2025.”
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it signals a positive shift in the industrials sector. This could benefit HEICO's performance.
Confirms:3-year revenue growth in the industrials sector rises above 7%.
Disproves:3-year revenue growth in the industrials sector remains below 5%.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 25, 2026, HEICO Corporation (the "Company") issued a press release announcing its results of operations for the three months ended January 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information furnished pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchange Act”) or…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On December 18, 2025, HEICO Corporation (the "Company") issued a press release announcing its results of operations for the fiscal year ended October 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information furnished pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchange Act”) or o…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On December 18, 2025, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of HEICO Corporation (the “Company”) appointed Nanda Kumar Cheruvatath to serve as an independent director of the Company, effective December 24, 2025. There were no arrangements or understandings pursuant to which Mr. Cheruvatath was appointed as a director, and there are no related party…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. HEICO Corporation (the “Company”) regrets to report that Laurans A. Mendelson, Executive Chairman of the Board of Directors, passed away on September 27, 2025, at the age of 87. Mr. Mendelson served the Company in numerous leadership roles during his tenure, including as Chairman and Chief Executive Officer from 1990 until earlier this year. Follow…