Reading RTX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track RTX free→Reading RTX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track RTX free→NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality and management's track record are neutral. The company has a capital-unfriendly stance, and the sector backdrop presents a headwind, with risk assessed as moderate. Peer multiples imply a price about 14% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. Watching for potential guidance cuts or improvements from sector bellwethers could be significant for RTX's outlook. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $186.85. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $184 RTX trades at 29× p/e, below its 38× p/e peer median. Our $220 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 17% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 14%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated strong grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=3696).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.53x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=4440).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.66 → $1.66 (+0.1% / 30d). 1 raised, 1 cut, 18 covering analysts.
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 0 maintained. 67% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 27.5% above current price.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$111.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$244.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,965.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: An increase in revenue guidance would show strong growth momentum for RTX.
Confirms:Management raises revenue guidance for Q2 by more than 5%.
Disproves:Management keeps revenue guidance the same or lowers it.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for RTX yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 21, 2026, RTX Corporation (the “ Company ”) issued a press release announcing its first quarter 2026 results. The press release issued April 21, 2026 is furnished herewith as Exhibit No. 99 to this Report, and shall not be deemed filed for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “ Exchange Act ”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section and shall not be deemed to be incorporated…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Aerospace & Defense.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
RTX RTX Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 73 of 100 | fair | moderate |
GE GE Aerospace | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 69 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
BA Boeing | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 22 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
LMT Lockheed Martin | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 59 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
HWM Howmet Aerospace | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
8 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1113).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
RTX aims to increase its revenue guidance for the fiscal year 2026.
RTX aims to maintain strong free cash flow for fiscal year 2026.
RTX aims to increase its adjusted EPS guidance for fiscal year 2026.
Why it matters: A rebound in sector growth could benefit RTX's revenue and market position.
Confirms one read:3-year revenue growth in the industrials sector speeds up above 8%.
Confirms the other:3-year revenue growth in the industrials sector slows below 4%.
Why it matters: Strong free cash flow helps with spending and growth plans.
Confirms:Free cash flow for Q2 exceeds $1 billion.
Disproves:Free cash flow drops below $500 million.
Why it matters: Confirming free cash flow guidance shows strong cash generation and supports growth plans.
Confirms:Free cash flow reported at or above $8.25 billion for 2026.
Disproves:Free cash flow reported below $8.25 billion for 2026.
Why it matters: Confirming organic sales growth shows ongoing strength and demand in the market.
Confirms:Organic sales growth reported above 5% for Q2 2026.
Disproves:Organic sales growth reported below 5% for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: A growing backlog shows strong demand and future revenue potential for RTX.
Confirms:Backlog reported above $271 billion in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Backlog reported below $271 billion in Q2 2026.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On March 5, 2026, James A. Winnefeld Jr. notified the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of RTX Corporation (the “Company”) of his intention to resign as a director of the Company, effective as of March 5, 2026. Mr. Winnefeld’s resignation was not the result of any dispute or disagreement with the Company or the Company’s Board on any matter relating…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On January 27, 2026, RTX Corporation (the “ Company ”) issued a press release announcing its fourth quarter 2025 results. The press release issued January 27, 2026 is furnished herewith as Exhibit No. 99 to this Report, and shall not be deemed filed for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “ Exchange Act ”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section and shall not be deemed to be incorpor…
Other Events. On November 7, 2025, RTX Corporation (the “Company”) initiated a buy-out conversion of a group annuity contract purchased by the RTX Consolidated Pension Plan (the “Plan”) from The Prudential Insurance Company of America (“Prudential”). The transaction will result in the transfer of approximately $2.5 billion of gross pension obligations from the Plan to Prudential. Assets from the Plan’s trust were previously used to purchase a group annuity contract with a buy-out conversion o…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 21, 2025, RTX Corporation (the “ Company ”) issued a press release announcing its third quarter 2025 results. The press release issued October 21, 2025 is furnished herewith as Exhibit No. 99 to this Report, and shall not be deemed filed for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “ Exchange Act ”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section and shall not be deemed to be incorpora…