RTX Corporation (RTX)

NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-10-15

$193.92+3.73%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge RTX Corporation’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.3%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

7.91 → 7.93 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 14 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 15 to 14; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Adjusted EPS reaches about $6.8 in fiscal 2026	A primary condition in RTX Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is ~$6.8.	Intact	EPS falls below $6.1 in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Management stated this priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Adjusted EPS guidance was raised from $6.70-$6.90 in Q1 2026 to $7.10-$7.25 in Q2 2026, supported by 21% year-over-year adjusted EPS growth to $1.89 in Q2. This reflects operational performance and margin expansion consistent with management's stated focus on EPS growth. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Free cash flow stays between $8.25B and $8.75B in fiscal 2026	Free cash flow stays strong near $8.5 billion.	Intact	Free cash flow falls below $7B in FY26	Free cash flow: $2.82B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $8.25B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 23, 20262,820,000,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Management stated this priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Free cash flow guidance increased from $8.25-$8.75 billion in Q1 2026 to $8.50-$8.75 billion in Q2 2026, supported by $2.9 billion free cash flow generated in Q2. This reflects sustained strong cash generation consistent with management's stated focus on maintaining and growing free cash flow. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Revenue reaches about $93 billion in fiscal 2026	RTX grows revenue about 8% a year, hitting $93 billion in 2026.	Intact	Revenue falls below $86 billion in FY26	Revenue: $24.708B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$93B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 23, 202624,708,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 6a92f181-ab1b-44ef-a3ec-24d46fa266f3. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Management raised full year 2026 adjusted sales guidance from $92.0-$93.5 billion in early 2026 to $95.0-$96.0 billion by Q2 2026, supported by 14% reported sales growth to $24.7 billion in Q2 and a 22% increase in backlog to $289 billion. The trajectory matches management's repeated emphasis on revenue growth and backlog execution, indicating delivery on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$7.93

$7.72 → $7.93 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$103.65B

$101.97B → $103.65B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$7.72	$101,972,655,325	15 / 17
2026-07-25	$7.72	$101,972,655,325	15 / 17
2026-07-26	$7.76	$102,499,484,170	23 / 22
2026-07-27	$7.83	$102,880,512,052	15 / 17
2026-07-28	$7.78	$102,652,347,810	23 / 22
2026-07-29	$7.80	$102,901,666,900	23 / 22
2026-07-30	$7.80	$102,901,666,900	23 / 22
2026-07-31	$7.88	$103,252,514,064	15 / 17
2026-08-01	$7.88	$103,252,514,064	15 / 17
2026-08-02	$7.81	$102,901,666,900	23 / 22
2026-08-03	$7.89	$103,252,514,064	15 / 17
2026-08-04	$7.89	$103,252,514,064	15 / 17
2026-08-05	$7.89	$103,252,514,064	15 / 17
2026-08-06	$7.89	$103,252,514,064	15 / 17
2026-08-08	$7.85	$103,136,202,870	23 / 22
2026-08-09	$7.85	$103,136,202,870	23 / 22
2026-08-10	$7.89	$103,252,514,064	15 / 17
2026-08-12	$7.89	$103,252,514,064	15 / 17
2026-08-13	$7.85	$103,136,202,870	23 / 22
2026-08-14	$7.89	$103,252,514,064	15 / 17
2026-08-15	$7.89	$103,252,514,064	15 / 17
2026-08-16	$7.89	$103,252,514,064	15 / 17
2026-08-17	$7.89	$103,252,514,064	15 / 17
2026-08-18	$7.89	$103,252,514,064	15 / 17
2026-08-19	$7.89	$103,252,514,064	15 / 17
2026-08-20	$7.91	$103,364,383,063	15 / 17
2026-08-21	$7.91	$103,364,383,063	15 / 17
2026-08-22	$7.91	$103,364,383,063	15 / 17
2026-08-23	$7.91	$103,364,383,063	15 / 17
2026-08-24	$7.91	$103,364,383,063	15 / 17
2026-08-25	$7.91	$103,364,383,063	15 / 17
2026-08-26	$7.91	$103,364,383,063	15 / 17
2026-08-27	$7.91	$103,364,383,063	15 / 17
2026-08-28	$7.91	$103,364,383,063	15 / 17
2026-08-29	$7.91	$103,364,383,063	15 / 17
2026-08-30	$7.91	$103,364,383,063	15 / 17
2026-08-31	$7.91	$103,364,383,063	15 / 17
2026-09-01	$7.91	$103,364,383,063	15 / 17
2026-09-02	$7.91	$103,364,383,063	15 / 17
2026-09-03	$7.91	$103,364,383,063	15 / 17
2026-09-04	$7.91	$103,364,369,522	15 / 17
2026-09-05	$7.91	$103,364,369,522	15 / 17
2026-09-06	$7.91	$103,364,369,522	15 / 17
2026-09-07	$7.91	$103,364,369,522	15 / 17
2026-09-08	$7.91	$103,364,369,522	15 / 17
2026-09-09	$7.91	$103,364,369,522	15 / 17
2026-09-10	$7.91	$103,364,369,522	15 / 17
2026-09-11	$7.91	$103,364,369,522	15 / 17
2026-09-12	$7.91	$103,364,369,522	15 / 17
2026-09-13	$7.91	$103,364,369,522	15 / 17
2026-09-14	$7.91	$103,364,369,522	15 / 17
2026-09-15	$7.91	$103,364,369,522	15 / 17
2026-09-16	$7.91	$103,364,369,522	15 / 17
2026-09-17	$7.90	$103,368,608,591	15 / 17
2026-09-18	$7.90	$103,368,608,591	15 / 17
2026-09-19	$7.90	$103,368,608,591	15 / 17
2026-09-20	$7.90	$103,368,608,591	15 / 17
2026-09-21	$7.90	$103,368,608,591	15 / 17
2026-09-22	$7.90	$103,368,608,591	15 / 17
2026-09-23	$7.90	$103,368,608,591	15 / 17
2026-09-24	$7.90	$103,368,608,591	15 / 17
2026-09-25	$7.90	$103,368,622,132	15 / 17
2026-09-26	$7.90	$103,368,622,132	15 / 17
2026-09-27	$7.90	$103,368,622,132	15 / 17
2026-09-28	$7.90	$103,368,622,132	15 / 17
2026-09-29	$7.90	$103,368,622,132	15 / 17
2026-09-30	$7.91	$103,451,200,422	15 / 17
2026-10-01	$7.91	$103,451,200,422	15 / 17
2026-10-02	$7.92	$103,544,657,017	15 / 17
2026-10-03	$7.92	$103,544,657,017	15 / 17
2026-10-04	$7.92	$103,544,657,017	15 / 17
2026-10-05	$7.92	$103,544,657,017	15 / 17
2026-10-06	$7.92	$103,542,439,625	15 / 17
2026-10-07	$7.92	$103,542,439,625	15 / 17
2026-10-08	$7.92	$103,542,439,625	15 / 17
2026-10-09	$7.93	$103,564,061,280	15 / 17
2026-10-10	$7.93	$103,564,061,280	15 / 17
2026-10-11	$7.93	$103,654,233,062	14 / 16
2026-10-12	$7.93	$103,654,233,062	14 / 16
2026-10-13	$7.93	$103,654,233,062	14 / 16
2026-10-14	$7.93	$103,654,233,062	14 / 16
2026-10-15	$7.93	$103,654,233,062	14 / 16

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	15	8	1
2026-06-01	16	8	0
2026-07-01	15	8	0
2026-08-01	15	8	0
2026-09-01	16	8	0
2026-10-01	17	8	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 17 Buy / Strong Buy · 8 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

RBC CapitalOct 15 · prior Jul 24

$250.00 → $235.00-6.0%

BernsteinOct 15 · prior Sep 23

$223.00 → $214.00-4.0%

Deutsche BankOct 13 · prior Jul 27

$238.00 → $208.00-12.6%

BarclaysOct 8

$223.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$137.50$275.00

0 raises · 3 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Adjusted EPS reaches about $6.8 in fiscal 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Free cash flow stays between $8.25B and $8.75B in fiscal 2026Free cash flow: $2.82B
Revenue reaches about $93 billion in fiscal 2026Revenue: $24.708B

Next proof point

Oct 20, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-20.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

RTX Corporation outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a stable industrial player focused on growth and cash flow. The current thesis is intact, supported by management's consistent priorities and recent financial performance.

What's priced into RTX Corporation

The market currently reflects a neutral valuation, with RTX priced slightly below its peers. There is a small expectations gap, suggesting that the market does not fully anticipate significant upside from management's guidance.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to remain stable, as management is on track with revenue, free cash flow, and adjusted EPS growth. However, there is a moderate risk due to the potential for sector headwinds.

What RTX Corporation hinges on

The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like SPCX, GE, and BA. If these companies continue to perform well, it could provide a favorable backdrop for RTX; conversely, any negative guidance from them could pose risks.