NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-08-31
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Create your account →Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
TransDigm grows revenue about 15% a year. It raised 2026 revenue guidance to $10.42 billion. The company buys back shares, spending $723 million in Q2 2026. Earnings per share are expected near $34.6 in Q3 2026.
Debt levels rise with new borrowings. Acquisitions may not add expected value. Profit growth could slow below 15%.
The price is about 4% below our fair value near $1387. Analysts expect 15% revenue growth, which matches our view.
Breaks if: Acquisition is delayed or canceled
TransDigm is committed to completing the acquisition of Stellant Systems to enhance its market position.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on growth through acquisitions and share buybacks. The current thesis state is stable, as management is executing on its priorities and maintaining revenue growth expectations.
The market appears to have priced in a neutral valuation, with TDG being seen as cheap compared to its peers. There is a slight expectations gap, indicating that the market may not fully anticipate the potential for revenue growth and successful execution of management's priorities.
Fundamentals are likely to remain stable in the near term, given the low probability of missing earnings expectations. However, there is a history of recent misses that could pose a risk if performance falters.
The long-term thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like SPCX, GE, and RTX. If these companies continue to perform well, it could provide a favorable environment for TDG. Conversely, any negative guidance from these peers could impact TDG's momentum.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports a positive outlook. Increased revenue guidance for fiscal 2026 reinforces growth objectives. There are no new threats to the thesis at this time.
as of 2026-08-31
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: Buybacks fall significantly below $700 million in Q2 2026
Continue returning capital to shareholders through share repurchases, with over $1.8 billion repurchased year-to-date in fiscal 2026.
Management stated this priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Share repurchases totaled approximately $1.8 billion year-to-date through 2026-Q2, including $1.0 billion in 2026-Q2 alone. The company is delivering on its capital return commitment through consistent repurchase activity.
“During the second quarter and continuing into the first week of April, we returned $800 million of capital to our shareholders through share repurchases, bringing the total amount of share repurchase…”
“For the thirty-nine week period ended June 27, 2026, TransDigm repurchased 1,496,383 shares of its common stock for a total amount of $1.8 billion.”
“During fiscal 2025, TransDigm repurchased approximately 400 thousand shares of its common stock at an average price per share of $1,247 for a total amount of approximately $0.5 billion.”
Breaks if: EPS falls below $33.9 in Q3 2026
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $9.75 billion in 2026
Raise full-year fiscal 2026 net sales guidance reflecting strong performance and acquisitions, targeting 19% growth at midpoint over fiscal 2025.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $8,831 million in fiscal 2025 to guidance of $10,470-$10,550 million for fiscal 2026, a 19% increase at midpoint. Management has consistently raised revenue guidance reflecting strong organic growth and acquisitions, delivering on this priority.
“We have significant liquidity and financial flexibility... increasing guidance for sales by $150 million”
“We are pleased to once again raise our full year fiscal 2026 financial guidance... increasing guidance for sales by $420 million”
“We are raising our full year fiscal 2026 financial guidance primarily to reflect our first quarter performance... Net sales are anticipated to be in the range of $9,845 million to $10,035 million”
Overall, TDG's execution on its strategic priorities and the broader industrial sector's performance will be critical in shaping its trajectory over the next few years. Not investment advice.
