Lockheed Martin (LMT)

NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-10-15

$552.09+3.65%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Lockheed Martin’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

32.71 → 32.75 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 15 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 16 to 15; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Deliver EPS between $29.35 and $30.25 in FY26	A primary condition in Lockheed Martin's published investment case. The stated target is EPS between $29.35 and $30.25.	Under Pressure	EPS falls below $29.35 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $7.94 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS between $29.35 and $30.25. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 23, 20267.94 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 28, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: dfafb85a-c096-4b2e-8bc3-518a5e0d91dd. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Generate free cash flow near $6.6B in FY26	The company targets EPS near $29.80 and free cash flow around $6.6 billion.	Improving	Free cash flow falls below $6.0 billion in FY26	Free cash flow: $2.917B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$6.6 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 23, 20262,917,000,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 28, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve 25% operating profit growth year-over-year	A primary condition in Lockheed Martin's published investment case. The stated target is 25% YoY operating profit growth.	Broken	Operating profit growth falls below 15% YoY in FY26	Operating margin: 11.45% FY2026-Q1; GAAP. Published target: 25% YoY operating profit growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Apr 23, 202611.447755 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q1 · Period ending Mar 29, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: f913d8d1-8fea-45d8-a7d9-e23a58fc6fcd. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Sales grew from $18.2B in 2025-Q2 to $20.1B in 2026-Q2 (+11%). Management raised 2026 segment operating profit guidance from $8.4B-$8.7B to $8.5B-$8.7B, reflecting a 25-28% expected increase year-over-year. The trajectory matches management's stated accelerated growth focus, delivering on volume ramps and backlog expansion. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Achieve revenue near $78.75B in FY26	A primary condition in Lockheed Martin's published investment case. The stated target is ~$78.75 billion.	Under Pressure	Revenue falls below $73.75 billion in FY26	Revenue: $20.063B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$78.75 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 23, 202620,063,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 28, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: dfafb85a-c096-4b2e-8bc3-518a5e0d91dd. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Sales grew from $18.2B in 2025-Q2 to $20.1B in 2026-Q2 (+11%). Management raised 2026 segment operating profit guidance from $8.4B-$8.7B to $8.5B-$8.7B, reflecting a 25-28% expected increase year-over-year. The trajectory matches management's stated accelerated growth focus, delivering on volume ramps and backlog expansion. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$32.75

$32.25 → $32.75 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$85.88B

$83.74B → $85.88B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$32.25	$83,742,308,061	15 / 15
2026-07-25	$32.38	$84,293,102,080	21 / 20
2026-07-26	$32.39	$84,704,144,062	16 / 15
2026-07-27	$32.39	$84,704,144,062	16 / 15
2026-07-28	$32.39	$84,704,144,062	16 / 15
2026-07-29	$32.65	$85,185,258,920	21 / 21
2026-07-30	$32.65	$85,185,258,920	21 / 21
2026-07-31	$32.63	$85,418,731,808	16 / 16
2026-08-01	$32.63	$85,418,731,808	16 / 16
2026-08-02	$32.65	$85,185,258,920	21 / 21
2026-08-03	$32.65	$85,185,277,050	21 / 21
2026-08-04	$32.65	$85,185,277,050	21 / 21
2026-08-05	$32.65	$85,185,258,920	21 / 21
2026-08-06	$32.65	$85,185,258,920	21 / 21
2026-08-07	$32.63	$85,418,828,494	16 / 16
2026-08-08	$32.65	$85,185,258,920	21 / 21
2026-08-09	$32.63	$85,418,828,494	16 / 16
2026-08-10	$32.63	$85,418,828,494	16 / 16
2026-08-12	$32.69	$85,308,163,680	21 / 21
2026-08-13	$32.63	$85,418,828,494	16 / 16
2026-08-14	$32.63	$85,418,828,494	16 / 16
2026-08-15	$32.63	$85,418,828,494	16 / 16
2026-08-16	$32.63	$85,418,828,494	16 / 16
2026-08-17	$32.63	$85,418,828,494	16 / 16
2026-08-18	$32.63	$85,418,828,494	16 / 16
2026-08-19	$32.63	$85,418,828,494	16 / 16
2026-08-20	$32.67	$85,525,464,351	16 / 16
2026-08-21	$32.67	$85,525,477,189	16 / 16
2026-08-22	$32.67	$85,525,477,189	16 / 16
2026-08-23	$32.67	$85,525,477,189	16 / 16
2026-08-24	$32.67	$85,525,477,189	16 / 16
2026-08-25	$32.67	$85,525,477,189	16 / 16
2026-08-26	$32.67	$85,525,477,189	16 / 15
2026-08-27	$32.67	$85,525,477,189	16 / 15
2026-08-28	$32.67	$85,525,477,189	16 / 15
2026-08-29	$32.67	$85,525,477,189	16 / 15
2026-08-30	$32.67	$85,525,477,189	16 / 15
2026-08-31	$32.67	$85,525,477,189	16 / 15
2026-09-01	$32.67	$85,525,477,189	16 / 15
2026-09-02	$32.67	$85,525,477,189	16 / 15
2026-09-03	$32.67	$85,525,477,189	16 / 15
2026-09-04	$32.67	$85,525,464,351	16 / 15
2026-09-05	$32.67	$85,525,464,351	16 / 15
2026-09-06	$32.67	$85,525,464,351	16 / 15
2026-09-07	$32.67	$85,525,464,351	16 / 15
2026-09-08	$32.67	$85,525,464,351	16 / 15
2026-09-09	$32.68	$85,565,287,209	16 / 15
2026-09-10	$32.68	$85,565,287,209	16 / 15
2026-09-11	$32.68	$85,565,287,208	16 / 15
2026-09-12	$32.68	$85,565,287,208	16 / 15
2026-09-13	$32.68	$85,565,287,208	16 / 15
2026-09-14	$32.68	$85,565,287,208	16 / 15
2026-09-15	$32.71	$85,657,477,684	16 / 15
2026-09-16	$32.71	$85,657,477,684	16 / 15
2026-09-17	$32.71	$85,657,477,684	16 / 15
2026-09-18	$32.71	$85,657,477,684	16 / 15
2026-09-19	$32.71	$85,657,477,684	16 / 15
2026-09-20	$32.71	$85,657,477,684	16 / 15
2026-09-21	$32.71	$85,657,477,684	16 / 15
2026-09-22	$32.71	$85,657,477,684	16 / 15
2026-09-23	$32.71	$85,657,477,684	16 / 15
2026-09-24	$32.71	$85,657,476,236	16 / 15
2026-09-25	$32.71	$85,657,476,236	16 / 15
2026-09-26	$32.71	$85,657,476,236	16 / 15
2026-09-27	$32.71	$85,783,181,862	16 / 15
2026-09-28	$32.71	$85,783,181,862	16 / 15
2026-09-29	$32.71	$85,783,181,862	16 / 15
2026-09-30	$32.71	$85,783,181,862	16 / 15
2026-10-01	$32.71	$85,783,181,862	16 / 15
2026-10-02	$32.71	$85,783,181,862	16 / 15
2026-10-03	$32.71	$85,783,181,862	16 / 15
2026-10-04	$32.71	$85,783,181,862	16 / 15
2026-10-05	$32.71	$85,783,181,862	16 / 15
2026-10-06	$32.72	$85,789,713,680	16 / 15
2026-10-07	$32.70	$85,794,773,222	16 / 16
2026-10-08	$32.70	$85,786,512,352	16 / 16
2026-10-09	$32.72	$85,776,262,460	16 / 16
2026-10-10	$32.76	$85,881,740,721	16 / 15
2026-10-11	$32.76	$85,881,740,721	16 / 15
2026-10-12	$32.76	$85,881,740,721	15 / 15
2026-10-13	$32.75	$85,875,102,504	15 / 15
2026-10-14	$32.75	$85,875,102,504	15 / 15
2026-10-15	$32.75	$85,875,102,504	15 / 15

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	7	14	1
2026-06-01	6	14	1
2026-07-01	7	14	1
2026-08-01	7	14	1
2026-09-01	8	13	1
2026-10-01	10	13	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 10 Buy / Strong Buy · 13 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Vertical ResearchOct 14

$600.00New observation · no comparable prior

BernsteinOct 14

$564.00New observation · no comparable prior

BarclaysOct 8

$554.00New observation · no comparable prior

Redburn PartnersOct 6

$650.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$357.50$715.00

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 4 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Deliver EPS between $29.35 and $30.25 in FY26Published status: Under Pressure
Generate free cash flow near $6.6B in FY26Free cash flow: $2.917B
Achieve 25% operating profit growth year-over-yearPublished status: Broken
Achieve revenue near $78.75B in FY26Published status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Oct 22, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-27.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Lockheed Martin outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on growth and cash flow generation. The current thesis is stable, supported by recent strong financial results and management's commitment to growth.

What's priced into Lockheed Martin

The valuation suggests that LMT is considered cheap compared to its peers, with a low expectations gap. The market seems to have priced in a level of fragility due to past execution issues, but not to an extreme degree.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to show continued strength, as management is focused on achieving accelerated sales and profit growth. Recent financial performance has been strong, although there is a moderate risk of missing future guidance.

What Lockheed Martin hinges on

The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like SPCX, GE, and RTX. If these companies continue to perform well, it could support LMT's growth. Conversely, any negative guidance from these peers could pose a risk to LMT's momentum.