NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-08-31
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Create your account →Broken: Primary pillar broken — Achieve 25% operating profit growth year-over-year: Operating profit growth not reported vs 25% target.
Lockheed Martin wins large defense contracts supporting sales growth. Revenue guidance is about $78.75 billion for 2026. The company targets EPS near $29.80 and free cash flow around $6.6 billion. Its valuation is cheaper than peers with a PE of 25.9 versus 38.2.
Recent earnings missed expectations and guidance is soft. Operating profit growth target of 25% year-over-year is not yet met. The sector faces headwinds and the stock is down 16% from highs. Execution risks remain amid macro uncertainty.
The price is about 5% above our fair value near $507 and 15% below the Street median target. Analysts expect roughly 7% revenue growth. Our view aligns with consensus but is more cautious on margin and profit growth.
Breaks if: EPS falls below $29.35 in FY26
Breaks if: Free cash flow falls below $6.0 billion in FY26
Breaks if: Operating profit growth falls below 15% YoY in FY26
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $73.75 billion in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on long-term growth. The current thesis is intact, supported by recent strong financial performance and management's commitment to growth initiatives.
The market appears to have priced in a neutral valuation, with LMT being viewed as cheap compared to its peers. There is an expectations gap, suggesting that the market may not fully account for the company's potential growth trajectory.
Fundamentals are likely to show continued improvement, particularly in sales and free cash flow, although there is some mixed performance in cash flow targets. Management's focus on growth and disciplined capital allocation supports this positive trajectory.
The long-term thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like SPCX, GE, and RTX, which could influence LMT's growth. Additionally, any potential guidance cuts from LMT would negatively impact credibility and investor sentiment.
Overall, LMT is positioned well for the next few years, but external factors and management execution will be critical. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports a positive outlook. Increased forecasts indicate strong sales growth potential. The Pentagon's new agreements boost production rates on missile programs.
as of 2026-08-31
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
