NYSEIndustrialsRailroadsSnapshot 2026-08-31
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Create your account →Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Union Pacific aims for mid-single-digit EPS growth. It beat EPS by 2.4% in Q1 2026. The merger with Norfolk Southern could boost growth and pricing. Rail volumes are rising, supporting higher earnings.
Merger uncertainty could hurt growth and cause operational risks. EPS growth is behind management's high-single to low-double digit target. Economic weakness may reduce customer demand and pricing power.
The price is about 13% above our fair value near $250. Analysts expect about 7% revenue growth. Our fair value is 14% below the Street median, which is more optimistic.
Breaks if: Service levels decline causing customer loss next year
Breaks if: YoY EPS growth falls below 6% in FY26
Merger fails or faces major regulatory or operational setbacks
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on consistent earnings growth and operational excellence. The current thesis state is stable, supported by recent financial results and management priorities.
The market appears to have a neutral view on valuation, with expectations slightly above the average compared to peers. There is a low level of fragility in the current pricing, suggesting that the stock is not overly sensitive to negative news.
Management has shown a commitment to achieving earnings per share growth and meeting customer demand, which aligns with their stated priorities. Recent financial performance has been positive, with earnings beats in the last two quarters, although there is a moderate risk of missing future estimates.
The long-term thesis hinges on the successful completion of the merger to create a transcontinental railroad and the performance of sector peers like CSX and NSC. Any changes in guidance or performance from these companies could significantly impact UNP's outlook.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. The latest earnings beat supports earnings growth targets. However, a reported fuel surcharge surplus may complicate merger negotiations with Norfolk Southern.
as of 2026-08-31
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: Pricing growth falls below inflation rate over next year
Overall, UNP's fundamentals are on track, but the investment thesis will need to navigate sector dynamics and management execution over the next few years. Not investment advice.
