Union Pacific Corporation (UNP)

NYSEIndustrialsRailroadsSnapshot 2026-10-15

$289.04+0.11%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Union Pacific Corporation’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.5%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

14.17 → 14.24 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 15 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 16 to 15; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Strong service to meet customer demand	A supporting condition in Union Pacific Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is Maintain high service levels despite muted economy.	Intact	Service levels decline causing customer loss next year	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Operating revenue increased from $6.0B in 2025-Q1 to $6.9B in 2026-Q2 (+15%). Freight revenue excluding fuel grew 4% in both 2026-Q1 and Q2. Management consistently emphasizes meeting customer demand with strong service and operational excellence. The trajectory is delivering. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Achieve mid-single-digit EPS growth	Union Pacific aims for mid-single-digit EPS growth.	Improving	YoY EPS growth falls below 6% in FY26	Diluted EPS growth: 6.67% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=6% YoY EPS growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 23, 20266.666667 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 6ac09839-43eb-4852-ba14-75213f0cdbf4. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Successful merger with Norfolk Southern	The merger with Norfolk Southern could boost growth and pricing.	Improving	Merger fails or faces major regulatory or operational setbacks	Qualitative: Merger active, no major setbacks Sept 2026 conferences highlight merger progress. Aug 2026 fuel surplus noted as minor complication. No major regulatory setbacks reported. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Operating revenue increased from $6.0B in 2025-Q1 to $6.9B in 2026-Q2 (+15%). Freight revenue excluding fuel grew 4% in both 2026-Q1 and Q2. Management consistently emphasizes meeting customer demand with strong service and operational excellence. The trajectory is delivering. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Pricing growth exceeding inflation	A supporting condition in Union Pacific Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is Pricing increases >4.25% inflation rate.	Intact	Pricing growth falls below inflation rate over next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Management consistently affirms pricing dollars exceed inflation, supporting revenue growth and operating ratio improvement. While specific pricing dollar amounts are not disclosed, operating revenue and freight revenue growth support this focus. The trajectory shows persistent emphasis with supporting revenue growth. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$14.24

$14.05 → $14.24 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$28.36B

$27.75B → $28.36B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$14.05	$27,753,198,951	15 / 16
2026-07-25	$14.05	$27,753,198,951	15 / 16
2026-07-26	$14.08	$27,851,262,260	23 / 21
2026-07-27	$14.12	$27,853,023,060	24 / 22
2026-07-28	$14.12	$27,853,023,060	24 / 22
2026-07-29	$14.13	$27,870,833,789	15 / 16
2026-07-30	$14.12	$27,853,023,060	24 / 22
2026-07-31	$14.12	$27,853,023,060	24 / 22
2026-08-01	$14.13	$27,870,832,898	16 / 16
2026-08-02	$14.12	$27,853,023,060	24 / 22
2026-08-03	$14.15	$27,920,056,317	16 / 16
2026-08-04	$14.12	$27,853,023,060	24 / 22
2026-08-05	$14.15	$27,920,056,317	16 / 16
2026-08-06	$14.15	$27,920,056,317	16 / 16
2026-08-08	$14.15	$27,920,056,317	16 / 16
2026-08-09	$14.15	$27,923,827,240	24 / 22
2026-08-10	$14.15	$27,920,056,317	16 / 16
2026-08-12	$14.15	$27,934,170,140	24 / 22
2026-08-13	$14.15	$27,920,056,317	16 / 16
2026-08-14	$14.15	$27,920,056,317	16 / 16
2026-08-15	$14.15	$27,920,056,317	16 / 16
2026-08-16	$14.15	$27,920,056,317	16 / 16
2026-08-17	$14.15	$27,920,056,317	16 / 16
2026-08-18	$14.15	$27,920,056,317	16 / 16
2026-08-19	$14.15	$27,920,056,317	16 / 16
2026-08-20	$14.17	$27,955,844,126	16 / 16
2026-08-21	$14.17	$27,955,844,126	16 / 16
2026-08-22	$14.17	$27,955,844,126	16 / 16
2026-08-23	$14.17	$27,955,844,126	16 / 16
2026-08-24	$14.17	$27,955,844,126	16 / 16
2026-08-25	$14.17	$27,955,844,126	16 / 16
2026-08-26	$14.17	$27,955,844,126	16 / 16
2026-08-27	$14.17	$27,955,844,126	16 / 16
2026-08-28	$14.17	$27,955,844,126	16 / 16
2026-08-29	$14.17	$27,955,844,126	16 / 16
2026-08-30	$14.17	$27,955,844,126	16 / 16
2026-08-31	$14.17	$27,955,844,126	16 / 16
2026-09-01	$14.17	$27,955,844,126	16 / 16
2026-09-02	$14.17	$27,955,844,126	16 / 16
2026-09-03	$14.17	$27,955,844,126	16 / 17
2026-09-04	$14.17	$27,955,844,126	16 / 17
2026-09-05	$14.17	$27,955,844,126	16 / 17
2026-09-06	$14.17	$27,955,844,126	16 / 17
2026-09-07	$14.17	$27,955,844,126	16 / 17
2026-09-08	$14.17	$27,955,844,126	16 / 17
2026-09-09	$14.17	$27,955,844,126	16 / 17
2026-09-10	$14.17	$27,955,844,126	16 / 17
2026-09-11	$14.17	$27,955,844,126	16 / 17
2026-09-12	$14.17	$27,955,844,126	16 / 17
2026-09-13	$14.17	$27,955,844,126	16 / 17
2026-09-14	$14.17	$27,955,844,126	16 / 17
2026-09-15	$14.17	$27,955,844,126	16 / 17
2026-09-16	$14.17	$27,955,844,126	16 / 17
2026-09-17	$14.18	$28,178,652,588	16 / 16
2026-09-18	$14.18	$28,178,652,588	16 / 16
2026-09-19	$14.18	$28,178,652,588	16 / 16
2026-09-20	$14.17	$28,204,056,013	15 / 16
2026-09-21	$14.17	$28,204,056,013	15 / 16
2026-09-22	$14.17	$28,204,056,013	15 / 16
2026-09-23	$14.17	$28,204,056,013	15 / 16
2026-09-24	$14.17	$28,204,056,013	15 / 16
2026-09-25	$14.17	$28,217,127,441	15 / 16
2026-09-26	$14.17	$28,217,127,441	15 / 15
2026-09-27	$14.17	$28,217,127,441	15 / 15
2026-09-28	$14.17	$28,217,127,441	15 / 15
2026-09-29	$14.17	$28,217,127,441	15 / 15
2026-09-30	$14.17	$28,217,127,441	15 / 15
2026-10-01	$14.19	$28,092,175,060	15 / 16
2026-10-02	$14.19	$28,107,069,098	15 / 16
2026-10-03	$14.20	$28,161,307,193	15 / 16
2026-10-04	$14.20	$28,161,307,193	15 / 16
2026-10-05	$14.20	$28,161,307,193	15 / 16
2026-10-06	$14.20	$28,160,651,366	15 / 16
2026-10-07	$14.21	$28,249,426,090	15 / 16
2026-10-08	$14.22	$28,273,898,815	15 / 16
2026-10-09	$14.22	$28,273,898,815	15 / 17
2026-10-10	$14.22	$28,273,898,815	15 / 17
2026-10-11	$14.23	$28,333,258,350	15 / 17
2026-10-12	$14.23	$28,333,258,350	15 / 17
2026-10-13	$14.24	$28,362,163,112	15 / 16
2026-10-14	$14.24	$28,362,163,112	15 / 17
2026-10-15	$14.24	$28,362,163,112	15 / 17

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	16	7	1
2026-06-01	15	7	1
2026-07-01	17	7	1
2026-08-01	17	7	1
2026-09-01	18	7	1
2026-10-01	18	6	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 18 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

1 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 4 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Raymond JamesOct 15 · prior Jul 13

$363.00 → $350.00-3.6%

RBC CapitalSep 24 · prior Jul 24

$339.00 → $326.00-3.8%

UBSSep 16 · prior Jul 24

$310.00 → $339.00+9.4%

$0$199.65$399.30

1 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Strong service to meet customer demandQualitative condition
Achieve mid-single-digit EPS growthDiluted EPS growth: 6.67%
Pricing growth exceeding inflationDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Oct 22, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-13.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Union Pacific Corporation outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment is a stable long-term thesis focused on a company undergoing a significant merger. The current state reflects a mixed outlook, with management priorities showing progress but facing sector headwinds.

What's priced into Union Pacific Corporation

The market currently reflects a neutral valuation for UNP, with expectations that are slightly above average compared to peers. There is a low fragility tier, indicating that the stock is not overly sensitive to immediate changes.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to remain stable as management continues to focus on achieving earnings per share growth and meeting customer demand. Recent financial performance has been neutral, with a low probability of missing expectations in the near term.

What Union Pacific Corporation hinges on

The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like CSX, NSC, and WAB, as their earnings results will influence UNP's trajectory. Additionally, any changes in guidance from UNP could significantly impact market perceptions.