Reading DE? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track DE free→Reading DE? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track DE free→NYSEIndustrialsFarm & Heavy Construction MachinerySnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is mixed, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, contributing to moderate risk. Compared with sector peers, DE trades below typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 23% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $585.53. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $575 DE trades at 33× p/e, in line with its 26× p/e peer median. Our $467 fair value reflects that, low confidence. Analysts: $500–$793. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 23% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about 6%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated strong grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=3696).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.66x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=4440).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $5.09 → $4.71 (-7.3% / 30d). 1 raised, 14 cut, 17 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 5 maintained. 54% of analysts rate Buy.
3 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 33.8% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$125.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$240.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,990.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: An increase in net income guidance would show strong financial health and growth potential.
Confirms:Management raises net income for the next fiscal year.
Disproves:Management lowers or keeps net income the same without change.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for DE yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
No upside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
No downside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On May 26, 2026, Dmitri Stockton notified the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Deere & Company (the “Company”) that he would not stand for re-election as a director at the 2027 annual meeting of stockholders. Mr. Stockton’s decision not to stand for re-election is not the result of any disagreement with the Company, its operations, policies, or…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$500.00 – $793.00 (median $730.00) · 15 analysts · as of 2026-05-27
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Industrials (broad).
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
DE Deere & Company | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 29 of 100 | full | moderate |
CAT Caterpillar Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 50 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
GE GE Aerospace | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 69 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
GEV GE Vernova | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 61 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
RTX RTX Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 69 of 100 | fair | moderate |
10 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Industrials names rated volatile grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=840).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management aims to increase net income guidance for fiscal 2026.
Transition of CFO role to Brent Norwood to strengthen financial leadership.
Why it matters: If the company keeps its net income guidance, it shows confidence in future results. This is true even with market challenges.
Confirms:Net income guidance for fiscal 2026 remains in the range of $4.5 billion to $5.0 billion.
Disproves:Net income guidance is lowered below $4.5 billion.
Why it matters: Earnings results show how the company is doing and what the market is like.
Confirms one read:Earnings are better than expected. This shows strong operations.
Confirms the other:Earnings are worse than expected. This suggests problems with operations or demand.
Why it matters: The new CFO's approach can affect financial transparency and strategy. This may influence investor trust.
Confirms one read:The new CFO presents a clear financial strategy that reassures investors in the next earnings call.
Confirms the other:The new CFO's strategy raises concerns or confusion among investors in the next earnings call.
Why it matters: A rebound in sector revenue growth could signal improved demand for Deere's products.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth speeds up again, reaching above 6%.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth slows down, staying below 6%.
Why it matters: A big drop would show ongoing problems in the agricultural sector.
Confirms:Q3 sales in Production & Precision Agriculture drop more than 10% year over year.
Disproves:Sales in Production & Precision Agriculture stay flat or go up each year.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On Thursday, May 21, 2026, Deere & Company (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its results of operations for the second quarter of fiscal 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Election of Chief Financial Officer On April 28, 2026, the board of directors of Deere & Company (the “Company”) elected T. Brent Norwood, 44, as its Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer (principal financial officer and principal accounting officer) , effective May 1, 2026. Mr. Norwood replaces Ryan D. Campbell, who was acting Chief Fi…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers, Election of Directors, Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On March 12, 2026, upon recommendation of the Compensation Committee, the Board of Directors of Deere & Company (the “Company”) approved grants of one-time awards of performance-based restricted stock units (“PSUs”) to the Company’s named executive officers listed below as well as certain other senior officers, under the John Deere 2020 Equity and…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On Thursday, February 19, 2026, Deere & Company (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its results of operations for the first quarter of fiscal 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.