Deere & Company (DE)

NYSEIndustrialsAgricultural - MachinerySnapshot 2026-10-15

$641.86-1.35%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Deere & Company’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.9%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

22.48 → 22.68 EPS · FY ending Nov 2, 2027 · 18 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 18 to 18; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Successful CFO transition to Brent Norwood	A supporting condition in Deere & Company's published investment case. The stated target is CFO transition completed with stable financial leadership.	Intact	CFO transition causes financial leadership disruption	CFO transition completed (qualitative) Norwood promoted to CFO May 2026; Q2/Q3 FY26 earnings beats; no reported financial leadership disruption. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Net income guidance at $4.5B or higher	Profit margins stay healthy with net income guidance raised to $4.5 billion.	Intact	net income guidance falls below $4.5 billion	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Net income guidance for fiscal 2026 improved from a range of $4.00-$4.75 billion in 2025-Q4 to $4.75-$5.00 billion in 2026-Q3. Actual net income for first nine months of 2026 was $3.808 billion. Management consistently emphasizes 2026 as the bottom of the ag equipment cycle, and the trajectory shows delivering on improved guidance. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Maintain stable profit margins near recent levels	Profit margins stay healthy with net income guidance raised to $4.5 billion.	Improving	profit margins decline significantly below recent levels	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth at or above consensus	A primary condition in Deere & Company's published investment case. The stated target is >= -1.7% YoY revenue growth.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below -1.7% next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Net income guidance for fiscal 2026 improved from a range of $4.00-$4.75 billion in 2025-Q4 to $4.75-$5.00 billion in 2026-Q3. Actual net income for first nine months of 2026 was $3.808 billion. Management consistently emphasizes 2026 as the bottom of the ag equipment cycle, and the trajectory shows delivering on improved guidance. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-11-02 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$22.68

$22.53 → $22.68 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$45.01B

$44.80B → $45.01B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$22.53	$44,802,648,316	17 / 12
2026-07-25	$22.53	$44,802,648,316	17 / 12
2026-07-26	$22.53	$44,802,648,316	17 / 12
2026-07-27	$22.53	$44,802,648,316	17 / 12
2026-07-28	$22.53	$44,802,648,316	17 / 12
2026-07-29	$22.53	$44,802,648,316	17 / 12
2026-07-30	$22.53	$44,802,648,316	17 / 12
2026-07-31	$22.48	$44,767,177,728	17 / 12
2026-08-01	$22.48	$44,767,177,728	17 / 12
2026-08-02	$22.48	$44,767,177,728	17 / 12
2026-08-03	$22.48	$44,767,177,728	17 / 12
2026-08-04	$22.48	$44,767,177,728	17 / 12
2026-08-05	$22.48	$44,767,177,728	17 / 12
2026-08-06	$22.48	$44,767,177,728	17 / 12
2026-08-07	$22.48	$44,767,177,728	17 / 12
2026-08-08	$22.48	$44,767,177,728	17 / 12
2026-08-09	$22.48	$44,767,177,728	17 / 12
2026-08-10	$22.48	$44,767,177,728	17 / 12
2026-08-11	$22.48	$44,767,177,728	17 / 12
2026-08-12	$22.48	$44,767,177,728	17 / 12
2026-08-13	$22.48	$44,767,177,728	17 / 12
2026-08-14	$22.48	$44,767,177,728	17 / 12
2026-08-15	$22.48	$44,767,177,728	17 / 12
2026-08-16	$22.48	$44,767,177,728	17 / 12
2026-08-17	$22.48	$44,767,177,728	17 / 12
2026-08-18	$22.48	$44,767,177,728	17 / 12
2026-08-19	$22.48	$44,767,177,728	17 / 12
2026-08-20	$22.19	$44,729,154,931	17 / 12
2026-08-21	$22.37	$44,851,244,342	17 / 12
2026-08-22	$22.22	$44,842,225,827	17 / 11
2026-08-23	$22.22	$44,760,990,533	17 / 11
2026-08-24	$22.22	$44,760,990,533	17 / 11
2026-08-25	$22.24	$44,756,184,651	17 / 11
2026-08-26	$22.24	$44,756,199,356	17 / 11
2026-08-27	$22.24	$44,756,199,356	17 / 11
2026-08-28	$22.24	$44,756,199,356	17 / 11
2026-08-29	$22.23	$44,733,611,121	17 / 11
2026-08-30	$22.23	$44,733,611,121	17 / 11
2026-08-31	$22.23	$44,733,611,121	17 / 12
2026-09-01	$22.23	$44,725,434,651	17 / 12
2026-09-02	$22.23	$44,725,434,651	18 / 12
2026-09-03	$22.23	$44,725,434,651	18 / 12
2026-09-04	$22.45	$44,725,434,651	18 / 12
2026-09-05	$22.45	$44,725,434,651	18 / 12
2026-09-06	$22.45	$44,725,434,651	18 / 12
2026-09-07	$22.45	$44,725,434,651	18 / 12
2026-09-08	$22.45	$44,725,434,651	18 / 12
2026-09-09	$22.45	$44,725,434,651	18 / 12
2026-09-10	$22.45	$44,725,434,651	18 / 12
2026-09-11	$22.45	$44,725,434,651	18 / 12
2026-09-12	$22.45	$44,725,434,651	18 / 12
2026-09-13	$22.45	$44,725,434,651	18 / 12
2026-09-14	$22.45	$44,725,434,651	18 / 12
2026-09-15	$22.48	$44,725,411,121	18 / 12
2026-09-16	$22.48	$44,725,411,121	18 / 12
2026-09-17	$22.48	$44,725,411,121	18 / 12
2026-09-18	$22.48	$44,725,411,121	18 / 12
2026-09-19	$22.48	$44,725,411,121	18 / 12
2026-09-20	$22.48	$44,725,411,121	18 / 12
2026-09-21	$22.48	$44,725,411,121	18 / 12
2026-09-22	$22.48	$44,725,411,121	18 / 12
2026-09-23	$22.48	$44,725,411,121	18 / 12
2026-09-24	$22.48	$44,725,411,121	18 / 12
2026-09-25	$22.48	$44,725,411,121	18 / 12
2026-09-26	$22.62	$44,879,766,545	18 / 12
2026-09-27	$22.62	$44,879,766,545	18 / 12
2026-09-28	$22.62	$44,879,766,545	18 / 12
2026-09-29	$22.62	$44,879,766,545	18 / 12
2026-09-30	$22.62	$44,879,766,545	18 / 12
2026-10-01	$22.62	$44,879,766,545	18 / 12
2026-10-02	$22.62	$44,879,766,545	18 / 12
2026-10-03	$22.62	$44,879,766,545	18 / 12
2026-10-04	$22.62	$44,879,766,545	18 / 12
2026-10-05	$22.62	$44,879,766,545	18 / 12
2026-10-06	$22.62	$44,918,439,454	18 / 11
2026-10-07	$22.62	$44,943,590,074	18 / 11
2026-10-08	$22.62	$44,943,590,074	18 / 11
2026-10-09	$22.68	$45,006,551,501	18 / 11
2026-10-10	$22.68	$45,006,551,501	18 / 11
2026-10-11	$22.68	$45,006,551,501	18 / 11
2026-10-12	$22.68	$45,006,551,501	18 / 11
2026-10-13	$22.68	$45,006,536,795	18 / 11
2026-10-14	$22.68	$45,006,536,795	18 / 11
2026-10-15	$22.68	$45,006,536,795	18 / 11

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	13	11	0
2026-06-01	13	11	0
2026-07-01	13	11	0
2026-08-01	14	11	0
2026-09-01	16	11	1
2026-10-01	16	9	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 16 Buy / Strong Buy · 9 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Net income guidance at $4.5B or higherDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Maintain stable profit margins near recent levelsDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Revenue growth at or above consensusDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 25, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-19.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Deere & Company outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on long-term growth through innovation and improved guidance. The current thesis state is intact, supported by recent earnings beats, but faces sector headwinds.

What's priced into Deere & Company

The market appears to price in a neutral valuation, with a premium compared to peers. However, there is an expectations gap, indicating that some future performance improvements may not be fully reflected in the current valuation.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is focused on increasing net income guidance and investing in innovation, though execution quality remains fragile. Recent financial performance has been neutral, with a low probability of missing estimates in the near term.

What Deere & Company hinges on

The thesis hinges on sector performance, particularly the actions of key competitors like CAT, CNH, and OSK. Positive earnings from these peers could bolster DE, while negative guidance could create headwinds.