Reading PH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PH free→Reading PH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PH free→NYSEIndustrialsSpecialty Industrial MachinerySnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality and management's recent track record are neutral. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, although PH trades above typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 27% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. This assessment hinges on guidance changes and sector trends, particularly the performance of bellwethers like GEV, ETN, and CMI. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $938.64. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $903 PH trades at 29× p/e, in line with its 24× p/e peer median. Our $739 fair value reflects that, low confidence. Analysts: $950–$1,147. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 27% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about 13%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated strong grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=3696).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.18x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=4440).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $8.26 → $8.26 (+0.0% / 30d). 8 raised, 13 cut, 23 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 78% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 11.4% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$129.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$225.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,952.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Keeping or raising EPS guidance shows strong earnings growth and trust from investors.
Confirms:EPS guidance for Q4 remains at or above $27.10.
Disproves:EPS guidance drops below $27.10.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Insider selling may signal caution about future performance.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 30, 2026, Parker-Hannifin Corporation issued a press release announcing results of operations for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$950.00 – $1147.00 (median $1044.00) · 8 analysts · as of 2026-06-09
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
PH Parker Hannifin | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 74 of 100 | full | moderate |
ITW Illinois Tool Works | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | fair | moderate |
GWW W. W. Grainger | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 76 of 100 | full | moderate |
DOV Dover Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 63 of 100 | fair | low |
IR Ingersoll Rand | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 49 of 100 | fair | moderate |
8 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1113).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Parker Hannifin aims to achieve mid-teens adjusted EPS growth for the fiscal year.
Parker Hannifin is focused on increasing sales growth, targeting a 7% reported sales growth for the fiscal year.
Parker Hannifin aims to improve its segment operating margin, targeting 23.9% for the fiscal year.
Why it matters: Improved sales growth would show progress in management's goal to increase sales. It could signal a stronger demand environment.
Confirms:Q2 sales growth exceeds 5% compared to Q1.
Disproves:Q2 sales growth remains below 2% compared to Q1.
Why it matters: Higher organic sales growth shows strong demand and good market strategies.
Confirms:Organic sales growth exceeds 5.5% in Q4 results.
Disproves:Organic sales growth falls below 5.5% in Q4 results.
Why it matters: Steady order rates show ongoing demand and chances for future revenue growth.
Confirms:Order rates exceed 6% in Q4.
Disproves:Order rates fall below 6% in Q4.
Why it matters: Better margins show improved cost management. It also shows good pricing power.
Confirms:The segment's operating margin is over 23.9%. This shows higher profits.
Disproves:Segment operating margin is below 23.9%. This suggests there are cost pressures.
Why it matters: A steady or better margin shows good cost control and efficient operations.
Confirms:Operating margin stays above 23.9% in Q4.
Disproves:Operating margin drops below 23.9% in Q4.
Why it matters: New EPS guidance would show if management is on track to achieve mid-teens EPS growth. It reflects confidence in future earnings.
Confirms one read:Management raises EPS growth guidance to above 15% for the year.
Confirms the other:Management lowers EPS growth guidance below 10% for the year.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On March 13, 2026, Kevin A. Lobo notified Parker-Hannifin Corporation (the “Company”) that he will not stand for reelection to the Company’s Board of Directors at the Company’s 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders. Mr. Lobo has served as a Director of the Company since 2013. He noted that his decision not to stand for reelection is a result of his e…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On January 29, 2026, Parker-Hannifin Corporation issued a press release announcing results of operations for the quarter ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On December 10, 2025, Parker-Hannifin Corporation (the “ Company ”) entered into (i) a 364-Day Term Loan Agreement (the “ 364-Day Credit Agreement ”) with Barclays Bank PLC, as administrative agent, and various financial institutions named therein as lenders, which 364-Day Credit Agreement provides for a delayed draw term loan facility in the aggregate principal amount of $5.25 billion (the “ 364-Day Credit Facility ”) and (ii) a Three-Year Term Loa…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The description of the Credit Agreements set forth in