Parker Hannifin (PH)

NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-10-15

$963.34+0.17%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Parker Hannifin’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+1.9%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

38.69 → 39.42 EPS · FY ending Jun 30, 2028 · 10 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Achieve mid-teens adjusted EPS growth	Parker Hannifin grows sales about 11% yearly and EPS by mid-teens.	Intact	EPS growth falls below mid-teens in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Adjusted EPS grew from $27.33 in 2025-Q4 to $32.31 in 2026-Q4, an 18% increase. Management has consistently raised and reiterated mid-teens adjusted EPS growth guidance, and the financial results show delivering progress on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Improve operating margin to about 23.9%	A supporting condition in Parker Hannifin's published investment case. The stated target is >=23.9% operating margin.	Under Pressure	Operating margin falls below 23.4% in FY26	Operating margin: 25.61% FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >=23.9% operating margin. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Sep 18, 202625.612511 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Date unavailable Source: company_financial_results. Reference: afc4ea9e-1fbf-48e9-8137-596ff09db6b9. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain revenue growth near 7% or higher	A primary condition in Parker Hannifin's published investment case. The stated target is >=7% YoY revenue growth.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 7% in FY26	Revenue growth: 9.76% FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >=7% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 21, 20269.763852 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q4. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Revenue increased from $19.85B in 2025-Q4 to $21.5B in 2026-Q4, with organic sales growth of 6.6%. Fiscal 2027 guidance projects 5.5% to 8.5% sales growth. Management's statements and financials show delivering progress on organic and total sales growth. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$39.42

$37.61 → $39.42 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$26.81B

$24.41B → $26.81B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$37.61	$24,406,246,712	6 / 12
2026-07-25	$37.61	$24,406,246,712	6 / 12
2026-07-26	$37.59	$24,391,921,712	6 / 12
2026-07-27	$37.59	$24,391,921,712	6 / 12
2026-07-28	$37.59	$24,391,921,712	6 / 12
2026-07-29	$37.59	$24,391,921,712	5 / 11
2026-07-30	$37.59	$24,391,921,712	5 / 11
2026-07-31	$37.59	$24,391,921,712	5 / 11
2026-08-01	$37.59	$24,391,921,712	5 / 11
2026-08-02	$37.59	$24,391,921,712	5 / 11
2026-08-03	$37.59	$24,391,921,712	5 / 11
2026-08-04	$37.59	$24,391,921,712	6 / 12
2026-08-05	$37.59	$24,391,921,712	6 / 12
2026-08-06	$37.59	$24,391,921,712	6 / 12
2026-08-07	$37.32	$24,209,338,379	6 / 12
2026-08-08	$37.85	$24,270,302,780	15 / 15
2026-08-09	$37.85	$24,270,302,780	15 / 15
2026-08-10	$37.32	$24,209,338,379	6 / 12
2026-08-12	$38.27	$24,412,807,470	21 / 19
2026-08-13	$37.32	$24,209,338,379	6 / 12
2026-08-14	$37.32	$24,209,338,379	6 / 12
2026-08-15	$37.32	$24,209,338,379	6 / 12
2026-08-16	$37.32	$24,209,338,379	13 / 15
2026-08-17	$37.32	$24,209,338,379	13 / 15
2026-08-18	$37.32	$24,209,338,379	5 / 8
2026-08-19	$37.32	$24,209,338,379	5 / 8
2026-08-20	$38.67	$24,381,483,843	5 / 6
2026-08-21	$38.67	$24,381,483,843	6 / 6
2026-08-22	$38.67	$24,381,483,843	6 / 7
2026-08-23	$38.68	$24,381,483,843	6 / 7
2026-08-24	$38.68	$24,381,483,843	7 / 7
2026-08-25	$38.68	$24,381,483,843	7 / 7
2026-08-26	$38.67	$24,381,483,843	7 / 7
2026-08-27	$38.67	$24,381,483,843	7 / 7
2026-08-28	$38.67	$24,381,483,843	7 / 7
2026-08-29	$38.68	$24,381,483,843	6 / 6
2026-08-30	$38.68	$24,381,483,843	6 / 6
2026-08-31	$38.68	$24,381,483,843	6 / 6
2026-09-01	$38.57	$24,381,483,843	6 / 6
2026-09-02	$38.57	$24,381,483,843	6 / 6
2026-09-03	$38.57	$24,381,483,843	6 / 6
2026-09-04	$38.57	$24,381,517,672	6 / 6
2026-09-05	$38.67	$24,433,180,517	6 / 6
2026-09-06	$38.67	$24,433,180,517	7 / 7
2026-09-07	$38.67	$24,433,180,517	7 / 7
2026-09-08	$38.67	$24,433,180,517	7 / 7
2026-09-09	$38.67	$24,433,180,517	7 / 7
2026-09-10	$38.67	$24,433,180,517	7 / 7
2026-09-11	$38.67	$24,433,180,517	7 / 7
2026-09-12	$38.67	$24,433,180,517	7 / 7
2026-09-13	$38.67	$24,433,180,517	7 / 7
2026-09-14	$38.67	$24,433,180,517	7 / 7
2026-09-15	$38.69	$24,433,180,517	7 / 7
2026-09-16	$38.69	$24,433,180,517	7 / 7
2026-09-17	$38.69	$24,433,180,517	7 / 7
2026-09-18	$38.69	$24,433,180,517	7 / 7
2026-09-19	$38.69	$24,433,180,517	7 / 7
2026-09-20	$38.77	$24,418,320,560	7 / 8
2026-09-21	$38.77	$24,418,320,560	7 / 8
2026-09-22	$38.77	$24,418,320,560	7 / 8
2026-09-23	$38.77	$24,418,320,560	7 / 8
2026-09-24	$38.77	$24,418,320,560	7 / 8
2026-09-25	$38.77	$24,418,320,560	7 / 8
2026-09-26	$38.82	$24,418,320,560	7 / 8
2026-09-27	$38.82	$24,418,320,560	8 / 8
2026-09-28	$38.82	$24,418,320,560	8 / 8
2026-09-29	$38.82	$24,418,320,560	8 / 8
2026-09-30	$38.96	$24,617,879,589	8 / 8
2026-10-01	$39.04	$26,797,345,136	9 / 10
2026-10-02	$39.04	$26,797,345,136	9 / 10
2026-10-03	$39.01	$26,797,321,752	9 / 11
2026-10-04	$39.01	$26,797,321,752	9 / 11
2026-10-05	$39.01	$26,797,321,752	10 / 11
2026-10-06	$39.01	$26,797,321,752	10 / 11
2026-10-07	$39.06	$26,747,143,156	10 / 12
2026-10-08	$39.19	$26,738,389,068	11 / 13
2026-10-09	$39.19	$26,738,389,068	10 / 13
2026-10-10	$39.19	$26,738,389,068	10 / 13
2026-10-11	$39.33	$26,768,696,463	10 / 12
2026-10-12	$39.33	$26,768,696,463	10 / 11
2026-10-13	$39.38	$26,768,696,463	10 / 11
2026-10-14	$39.38	$26,759,307,773	11 / 12
2026-10-15	$39.42	$26,814,054,375	10 / 13

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	20	5	2
2026-06-01	21	5	2
2026-07-01	19	5	1
2026-08-01	19	5	1
2026-09-01	19	6	1
2026-10-01	19	6	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 19 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Mizuho SecuritiesOct 15 · prior May 1

$1050.00 → $1200.00+14.3%

UBSOct 14 · prior Aug 7

$1250.00 → $950.00-24.0%

Wells FargoSep 24 · prior May 26

$950.00 → $1050.00+10.5%

$0$687.50$1375.00

2 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Achieve mid-teens adjusted EPS growthDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Improve operating margin to about 23.9%Published status: Under Pressure
Maintain revenue growth near 7% or higherRevenue growth: 9.76%

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-19.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Parker Hannifin outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on steady growth. The current thesis state is stable, supported by strong recent financial performance and management's commitment to growth targets.

What's priced into Parker Hannifin

The valuation is considered expensive compared to peers, with a premium of 1.21. The market seems to have priced in a modest expectations gap, indicating that investors are anticipating continued performance in line with management's guidance.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is on track to achieve mid-teens adjusted EPS growth, with strong revenue and margin improvements. However, there is moderate risk due to potential sector headwinds, as recent industry trends have shown some volatility.

What Parker Hannifin hinges on

The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like GEV, TT, and EMR. If these companies continue to report strong earnings, it could support PH's growth. Conversely, if they start to miss expectations, it could negatively impact PH's momentum.