Illinois Tool Works (ITW)
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-10-30
$278.55-1.01%
Close 2026-10-30 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-10-30
Research Workspace
Put ITW beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components is in expansion. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
The reason to own it still holds.
View ThesisRevenue is growing steadily — about 5% over the past year.
View GrowthRanks among the strongest in its industry on quality — around the top 20%.
View QualityManagement screens strong on capital allocation, earnings delivery, margins, the balance sheet.
View ManagementExpectations look high — the market is pricing in about 18% growth a year, above the roughly 4% analysts expect, leaving little room for error.
View ValuationModerate volatility — typically moves about 1% a day.
View RiskITW’s appeal rests on durable earnings growth, with 2026 guidance raised despite slowing revenue growth. Revenue growth eased from 6.1% in Q2 to 4.4% in Q3, when EPS was inline. ITW trades at 25× P/E versus a 25× peer median and its 25× historical multiple. The market prices in more growth than our forecast, leaving expectations full. A 20% next-quarter miss probability threatens confidence in raised guidance. The valuation read says peer multiples imply a price about 18% below where it trades; our read remains intact.
Trailing returns as of 2026-10-30. ITW is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 17 analysts currently covering ITW (as of Oct 2026).
Based on 5 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for ITW in the last 4 months.
Continue this research
Compare ITW with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ITW Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 13 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-10-30. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put ITW next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Advances: Increase GAAP EPS guidance to $11.35-$11.55 for 2026
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-10-30. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $278.55
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $278.55.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Bottom 25% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Raises 2026 GAAP EPS midpoint to $11.50 and projects at least 5% Q4 organic growth.
Advances: Increase GAAP EPS guidance to $11.35-$11.55 for 2026
Q3 earnings call is a material update on earnings guidance and operating performance.
Advances: Return capital to shareholders via $1.5B share repurchases in 2026
Increases shareholder returns, aligning with capital allocation goals.
Advances: Increase GAAP EPS guidance to $11.35-$11.55 for 2026
Raised EPS guidance positively impacts growth objectives.
Guidance raise supports revenue growth objectives.
Advances: Achieve revenue growth of 2-4%
Forecasted growth aligns with revenue growth target.
Advances: Achieve revenue growth of 2-4%
Organic growth acceleration supports revenue growth objective.
Advances: Increase EPS guidance to $11.10-$11.50 for 2026
Raised outlook aligns with increased EPS guidance.
