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NYSEIndustrialsSpecialty Industrial MachinerySnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong. Earnings quality is fragile, which is a concern. Management's recent track record has been steady. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, ITW is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair, but weakening. If ITW cuts guidance on the next call, that could be negative.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $265.86. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $263 ITW trades at 24× p/e, in line with its 24× p/e peer median. Our $265 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Analysts: $254–$272. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 1% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 11%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated strong grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=3696).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.01x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated fragile grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $2.80 → $2.79 (-0.2% / 30d). 5 raised, 7 cut, 14 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 11% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$90.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$192.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,745.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A drop in operating margin means profits may fall. It also shows less efficiency.
Confirms:Operating margin was below 26.5% in Q2.
Disproves:Operating margin reported at 26.5% or higher for Q2.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ITW yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers On May 19, 2026, Randall J. Scheuneman, Vice President & Chief Accounting Officer and Principal Accounting Officer of Illinois Tool Works Inc. (the “Company”) notified the Company that he will retire from the Company effective March 1, 2027 and that he will be stepping down from his current role effective June 30, 2026. Mr. Scheuneman will remain wi…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$254.00 – $272.00 (median $255.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-05-11
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ITW Illinois Tool Works | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 88 of 100 | fair | moderate |
PH Parker Hannifin | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 74 of 100 | full | moderate |
GWW W. W. Grainger | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 76 of 100 | full | moderate |
DOV Dover Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 64 of 100 | fair | low |
IR Ingersoll Rand | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 49 of 100 | fair | moderate |
6 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1113).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Met or beat guidance 88% of the last 8 guided quarters · -10.1% avg surprise
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
ITW aims to achieve revenue growth of 2-4% for the fiscal year 2026.
ITW has raised its full year 2026 GAAP EPS guidance to a range of $11.10 to $11.50.
ITW projects free cash flow to exceed net income for the fiscal year 2026.
Why it matters: Earnings per share below guidance may show problems in making money.
Confirms:Q2 GAAP EPS reported below $2.77.
Disproves:Q2 GAAP EPS meets or exceeds $2.77.
Why it matters: Weak organic growth would challenge ITW's ability to meet its revenue growth target.
Confirms:Q2 organic revenue growth reported at less than 1%.
Disproves:Q2 organic revenue growth reported at 1% or higher.
Why it matters: If EPS guidance goes up, it shows stronger profits and management's confidence.
Confirms:Management raises GAAP EPS guidance above $11.50. This shows better performance than expected.
Disproves:EPS guidance stays at or below $11.50. This suggests limited growth.
Why it matters: This shows the company is making cash well. It matches management's goals for spending.
Confirms:Free cash flow reported in Q2 exceeds net income.
Disproves:Free cash flow reported in Q2 is less than net income.
Why it matters: If EPS guidance drops, it means profits may be lower. This can hurt investor trust.
Confirms:Full year EPS guidance revised down to below $11.10.
Disproves:Full year EPS guidance remains at $11.10 or higher.
Why it matters: Lower conversion shows cash flow problems. This might change how money is spent.
Confirms:Free cash flow conversion reported below 100% of net income.
Disproves:Free cash flow conversion reported at 100% or higher.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 30, 2026 , Illinois Tool Works Inc. (the "Company") announced its 2026 first quarter results of operations in the press release furnished as Exhibit 99.1. Non-GAAP Financial Measures The Company uses free cash flow to measure cash flow generated by operations that is available for dividends, share repurchases, acquisitions and debt repayment. The Company believes this non-GAAP financial measure, along with free cash flow to net income con…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement On February 20, 2026, Illinois Tool Works Inc. (the “Company”) entered into a $3.0 billion, five-year credit agreement (the “Credit Agreement”) with JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., as Agent, Citibank, N.A. as Syndication Agent, both of which served as Joint Lead Arrangers and Joint Bookrunners, and a syndicate of lenders, that replaces the Company’s existing revolver that was scheduled to terminate on October 21, 2027. As of February 20, 2026, no amounts…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of the Registrant The information set forth in
Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement On February 20, 2026, in connection with the Company’s entry into the Credit Agreement, the existing credit agreement dated October 21, 2022, as amended, by and among the Company, the lenders named therein, and JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., as Agent, was terminated.