Reading ITT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ITT free→Reading ITT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ITT free→NYSEIndustrialsSpecialty Industrial MachinerySnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality is also neutral. Management's recent track record is neutral. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, ITT is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 18% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. If ITT cuts guidance on the next call, that would be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $195.31. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $195 ITT trades at 28× p/e, in line with its 24× p/e peer median. Our $164 fair value reflects that, low confidence. Analysts: $220–$255. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 19% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 16%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.30x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=4440).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, the US dollar.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.93 → $1.95 (+1.5% / 30d). 3 raised, 3 cut, 13 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 69% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 17.2% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$121.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$278.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,689.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Signal changed from 'mild_favorable' to 'mixed'.
The signal changed to mixed. Risk fell. The sector backdrop remains a headwind. The forward view includes unfavorable scenarios related to potential guidance cuts and sector trends weakening, alongside favorable scenarios if sector bellwethers improve earnings and guidance.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A rise in adjusted EPS guidance shows strong performance after the acquisition.
Confirms:Management raises adjusted EPS guidance above $7.70 for the full year.
Disproves:Guidance remains unchanged or is lowered from the current range of $7.70 to $8.00.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ITT yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers On May 6, 2026, ITT Inc. (the “Company”) announced that Emmanuel Caprais, the Company’s Chief Financial Officer, would leave the Company for personal reasons after almost 14 years of service, effective May 8, 2026. Mr. Caprais’ departure is not the result of any disagreement between Mr. Caprais and the Company with respect to any matter relating to…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$220.00 – $255.00 (median $246.00) · 7 analysts · as of 2026-05-11
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ITT ITT Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 49 of 100 | full | moderate |
PH Parker Hannifin | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 78 of 100 | full | moderate |
ITW Illinois Tool Works | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | fair | moderate |
GWW W. W. Grainger | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | full | moderate |
DOV Dover Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 63 of 100 | fair | low |
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1113).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on integrating SPX FLOW to achieve synergies and enhance revenue growth.
Aim to increase operating margin through productivity and pricing actions.
Improve cash flow from operations despite acquisition-related impacts.
Focus on increasing revenue through strategic initiatives and market expansion.
Continue to focus on maintaining strong operating income through cost management and efficiency.
Why it matters: Guidance will show if the company can keep growing after the SPX FLOW acquisition.
Confirms one read:Management guides for organic revenue growth of 6% or higher for Q2.
Confirms the other:Management cuts organic revenue growth guidance to below 4% for Q2.
Why it matters: Meeting or beating earnings expectations can help investor confidence. It may improve stock performance.
Confirms:Q2 earnings report shows earnings per share (EPS) above $0.75.
Disproves:Q2 earnings report shows EPS below $0.50.
Why it matters: Stabilizing or improving operating income shows ITT is managing costs better. This is key for long-term health.
Confirms:Operating income improves to at least $150M in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Operating income drops below $140M in Q2 2026. This is a further decline.
Why it matters: Better cash flow helps future investments. It also shows the company is financially healthy.
Confirms:Cash flow from operations increases by at least 20% in Q2.
Disproves:Cash flow from operations decreases or remains flat in Q2.
Why it matters: Successful integration will confirm the expected benefits of the SPX FLOW acquisition. This is key for future growth.
Confirms:Management says integration is going well. They are meeting their synergy goals.
Disproves:Management reports delays in integrating SPX FLOW. This affects revenue growth.
Why it matters: Better free cash flow means more cash. It also shows better efficiency.
Confirms:Free cash flow for Q2 exceeds $100 million, showing recovery from Q1.
Disproves:Free cash flow remains below $50 million, indicating ongoing cash flow issues.
Why it matters: The new CEO's direction could change ITT's strategy and performance outlook. This is a key leadership change.
Confirms one read:Positive strategic changes announced by the new CEO that align with growth goals.
Confirms the other:No clear strategic direction or negative changes announced by the new CEO.
Why it matters: Stable margins show good cost control. This is important during acquisition costs.
Confirms:Operating margin is over 12.4% in Q2, showing good cost control.
Disproves:Operating margin is below 11.7%. This shows rising cost pressures.
Why it matters: Improved revenue growth signals progress in ITT's growth initiatives. This could boost investor confidence.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth exceeds 10% year over year, showing strong momentum.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth is below 5% compared to last year. This shows little change.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 6, 2026, ITT Inc. issued a press release reporting the financial results for the first fiscal quarter ended April 4, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached to this Current Report on Form 8-K (“Current Report”) as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated by reference herein solely for purposes of this
After adjustments pursuant to the Purchase Agreement, the net merger consideration paid to the Target was estimated to be approximately $3.0 billion, composed of approximately $2.3 billion in cash and $0.7 billion in shares of ITT common stock as of the date of the Purchase Agreement. The foregoing description of the Purchase Agreement and the transactions contemplated thereby does not purport to be complete and is subject to, and qualified in its entirety by the full text of the Purchase Agr…
Registration Rights Agreement On the Closing Date, ITT entered into a Registration Rights Agreement (the “Registration Rights Agreement”), with the Seller, pursuant to which ITT granted the Seller certain demand, “piggy-back” and shelf registration rights with respect to the Stock Consideration, subject to certain customary thresholds and conditions. No later than 90 days after the closing of the Acquisition, ITT is required to file a shelf registration statement registering the Stock Conside…
of this Current Report, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, is being furnished to the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of such section. This information shall not be incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or the Exchange Act, except as s…