Reading XYL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track XYL free→Reading XYL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track XYL free→NYSEIndustrialsSpecialty Industrial MachinerySnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and the company has a capital-friendly approach to management. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, while compared with sector peers it is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 12% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. If XYL cuts guidance on the next call, that could have a meaningful negative impact. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $112.06. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $111 XYL trades at 21× p/e, below its 24× p/e peer median. Our $126 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $132–$163. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 12% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.34x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=4440).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.34 → $1.34 (+0.0% / 30d). 2 raised, 12 cut, 19 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 65% of analysts rate Buy.
1 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$107.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$222.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,004.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The acquisition will create a stronger platform for Xylem in water solutions. It could enhance revenue and market position.
Confirms:The acquisition will close by mid-2023. All required approvals have been received.
Disproves:The acquisition does not close. This is due to regulatory or shareholder problems.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for XYL yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On May 29, 2026, Xylem Inc. (the “Company”) completed a public offering (the “Offering”) of $500,000,000 aggregate principal amount of 5.200% Senior Notes due 2033 (the “2033 Notes”) and $500,000,000 aggregate principal amount of 5.450% Senior Blue Notes due 2036 (the “2036 Blue Notes” and, together with the 2033 Notes, the “Notes”). The Notes are governed by a senior indenture, dated March 11, 2016 (the “Base Indenture”), as supplemented by the fir…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$132.00 – $163.00 (median $154.00) · 7 analysts · as of 2026-04-29
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
XYL Xylem Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 71 of 100 | fair | moderate |
PH Parker Hannifin | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 78 of 100 | full | moderate |
ITW Illinois Tool Works | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | fair | moderate |
GWW W. W. Grainger | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | full | moderate |
DOV Dover Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 63 of 100 | fair | low |
6 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1113).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing revenue growth through strong execution and demand across key markets.
Continue to maintain and improve adjusted EBITDA margin through operational efficiency.
Focus on sustaining free cash flow margin through disciplined capital allocation.
Why it matters: The buyback can signal management's confidence in the company's value and help support the share price.
Confirms:Management says they have finished a big part of the buyback program.
Disproves:Management delays or cancels the buyback program. This is because of financial issues.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is a key priority for Xylem. Updates could indicate if they are on track to meet their goals.
Confirms one read:Management raises Q2 revenue growth guidance above 3% year over year.
Confirms the other:Management lowers Q2 revenue growth guidance below 1% year over year.
Why it matters: The buyback could support the stock price by reducing share supply and signaling confidence.
Confirms:Stock price shows a positive trend following the buyback announcement.
Disproves:Stock price falls even after the buyback announcement.
Why it matters: Keeping the adjusted EBITDA margin is important for making money. Changes may show problems.
Confirms:Adjusted EBITDA margin exceeds 23.3% for the full year.
Disproves:Adjusted EBITDA margin falls below 22.9% for the full year.
Why it matters: A strong free cash flow margin shows good cash generation and financial health.
Confirms:Free cash flow margin reported above 10.2% for Q2.
Disproves:Free cash flow margin falls below 10.2% for Q2.
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The disclosure under
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 28, 2026, Xylem Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report and is incorporated by reference herein. This information shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act…
Other Events On February 25, 2026, the Board of Directors of Xylem Inc. (the “Company”) approved the adoption of a new share repurchase program. Under the new program, which has no expiration date, the Company is authorized to purchase up to $1.5 billion in shares of the common stock, $0.01 par value, of the Company (“Common Stock”). Repurchases under the new program may be made through open market purchases or otherwise (in compliance with all applicable laws and regulations in effect from t…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On February 10, 2026, Xylem Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter and fiscal year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report and is incorporated by reference herein. This information shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference into any filing un…