Xylem Inc. (XYL)

NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-10-15

$104.05+0.66%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Xylem Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.4%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

6.23 → 6.21 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 13 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 13 to 13; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Consistent earnings beats and guidance reaffirmations	The company buys back shares and beats earnings estimates consistently.	Intact	Fails to beat EPS or cuts guidance in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Free cash flow margin near 10.2% to 11.0%	Free cash flow margin stays strong around 10%.	Intact	Free cash flow margin falls below 9% in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Sustained priority stated in 6 of last 6 quarters. Free cash flow margin guidance remains steady at approximately 10.2% to 11.0% for 2026, up slightly from 9-10% in 2025. Operating cash flow was $290 million in 2026-Q2. Management is maintaining focus on disciplined cash flow generation with a stable trajectory. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Gross margin near 23%	A primary condition in Xylem Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is 22.9% to 23.3%.	Intact	Gross margin falls below 22% in FY26	Gross margin: 41.22% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 22.9% to 23.3%. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 28, 202641.224315 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: ffd70e63-901c-4187-b523-a03f0fbe0e02. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Annual revenue growth near 4% or higher	A primary condition in Xylem Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=3.9% YoY.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 3% in FY26	Revenue growth: 1.52% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=3.9% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 28, 20261.521078 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: ffd70e63-901c-4187-b523-a03f0fbe0e02. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Revenue grew from $2.1 billion in 2026-Q1 to $2.3 billion in 2026-Q2, with full-year 2026 revenue guidance at approximately $9.2 billion, up 2% from 2025's $9.0 billion. Management has consistently emphasized revenue growth and the trajectory is delivering. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$6.21

$6.10 → $6.21 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$9.60B

$9.61B → $9.60B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$6.10	$9,614,831,400	22 / 21
2026-07-25	$6.10	$9,614,831,400	22 / 21
2026-07-26	$6.10	$9,614,831,400	22 / 21
2026-07-27	$6.10	$9,614,831,400	22 / 21
2026-07-28	$6.10	$9,614,831,400	22 / 21
2026-07-29	$6.18	$9,566,155,867	15 / 17
2026-07-30	$6.17	$9,551,120,351	14 / 17
2026-07-31	$6.20	$9,560,798,830	21 / 21
2026-08-01	$6.18	$9,549,622,164	14 / 17
2026-08-02	$6.18	$9,549,622,164	14 / 17
2026-08-03	$6.19	$9,560,798,830	22 / 21
2026-08-04	$6.19	$9,560,798,830	22 / 21
2026-08-05	$6.19	$9,560,798,830	22 / 21
2026-08-06	$6.19	$9,560,798,830	22 / 21
2026-08-08	$6.18	$9,549,622,164	14 / 17
2026-08-09	$6.19	$9,555,365,470	22 / 21
2026-08-10	$6.18	$9,549,622,164	14 / 17
2026-08-12	$6.18	$9,549,622,164	14 / 17
2026-08-13	$6.18	$9,549,622,164	14 / 17
2026-08-14	$6.18	$9,549,622,164	14 / 17
2026-08-15	$6.18	$9,549,622,164	14 / 17
2026-08-16	$6.18	$9,549,622,164	14 / 17
2026-08-17	$6.18	$9,549,622,164	14 / 17
2026-08-18	$6.18	$9,549,622,164	14 / 17
2026-08-19	$6.18	$9,549,622,164	14 / 17
2026-08-20	$6.19	$9,584,262,961	15 / 17
2026-08-21	$6.19	$9,584,262,961	15 / 17
2026-08-22	$6.19	$9,584,262,961	15 / 17
2026-08-23	$6.23	$9,616,792,179	14 / 17
2026-08-24	$6.23	$9,616,792,179	14 / 16
2026-08-25	$6.23	$9,621,759,527	14 / 16
2026-08-26	$6.23	$9,621,769,071	13 / 15
2026-08-27	$6.23	$9,621,769,071	13 / 15
2026-08-28	$6.23	$9,621,769,071	13 / 15
2026-08-29	$6.23	$9,621,769,071	13 / 15
2026-08-30	$6.23	$9,621,769,071	13 / 15
2026-08-31	$6.23	$9,621,769,071	13 / 15
2026-09-01	$6.23	$9,621,769,071	13 / 15
2026-09-02	$6.23	$9,621,769,071	13 / 15
2026-09-03	$6.23	$9,621,769,071	13 / 15
2026-09-04	$6.23	$9,621,769,071	13 / 15
2026-09-05	$6.23	$9,621,769,071	13 / 15
2026-09-06	$6.23	$9,621,769,071	13 / 15
2026-09-07	$6.23	$9,621,769,071	13 / 15
2026-09-08	$6.23	$9,621,769,071	13 / 15
2026-09-09	$6.23	$9,621,769,071	13 / 15
2026-09-10	$6.23	$9,621,769,071	13 / 15
2026-09-11	$6.23	$9,621,769,071	13 / 15
2026-09-12	$6.23	$9,621,769,071	13 / 15
2026-09-13	$6.23	$9,621,769,071	13 / 15
2026-09-14	$6.23	$9,621,769,071	13 / 15
2026-09-15	$6.23	$9,621,769,071	13 / 15
2026-09-16	$6.23	$9,621,769,071	13 / 15
2026-09-17	$6.23	$9,621,769,071	13 / 15
2026-09-18	$6.23	$9,621,769,071	13 / 15
2026-09-19	$6.23	$9,621,769,071	13 / 15
2026-09-20	$6.23	$9,621,769,071	13 / 15
2026-09-21	$6.23	$9,621,769,071	13 / 15
2026-09-22	$6.23	$9,621,769,071	13 / 15
2026-09-23	$6.23	$9,621,769,071	13 / 15
2026-09-24	$6.23	$9,621,769,071	13 / 15
2026-09-25	$6.23	$9,621,769,071	13 / 15
2026-09-26	$6.23	$9,621,769,071	13 / 15
2026-09-27	$6.23	$9,621,769,071	13 / 15
2026-09-28	$6.23	$9,621,769,071	13 / 15
2026-09-29	$6.23	$9,621,769,071	13 / 15
2026-09-30	$6.23	$9,621,769,071	13 / 15
2026-10-01	$6.23	$9,621,769,071	13 / 15
2026-10-02	$6.23	$9,621,769,071	13 / 15
2026-10-03	$6.23	$9,623,380,183	13 / 15
2026-10-04	$6.23	$9,623,380,183	13 / 15
2026-10-05	$6.23	$9,623,380,183	13 / 15
2026-10-06	$6.23	$9,623,380,183	13 / 15
2026-10-07	$6.21	$9,613,873,838	13 / 15
2026-10-08	$6.21	$9,612,707,171	13 / 15
2026-10-09	$6.21	$9,612,693,805	13 / 15
2026-10-10	$6.21	$9,612,693,805	13 / 15
2026-10-11	$6.21	$9,612,693,805	13 / 15
2026-10-12	$6.21	$9,612,693,805	13 / 15
2026-10-13	$6.21	$9,612,693,805	13 / 15
2026-10-14	$6.21	$9,604,844,133	13 / 15
2026-10-15	$6.21	$9,598,627,466	13 / 15

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	15	9
2026-06-01	16	8
2026-07-01	15	9
2026-08-01	15	9
2026-09-01	14	8
2026-10-01	14	7

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 14 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades5 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 5 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

BarclaysOct 13 · prior Jul 29

$159.00 → $139.00-12.6%

UBSOct 5 · prior Aug 13

$138.00 → $112.00-18.8%

$0$87.45$174.90

0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Consistent earnings beats and guidance reaffirmationsDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Free cash flow margin near 10.2% to 11.0%Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Gross margin near 23%Gross margin: 41.22%
Annual revenue growth near 4% or higherRevenue growth: 1.52%

Next proof point

Oct 27, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-33.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Xylem Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment is characterized as a durable compounder with a focus on steady revenue and margin growth. The current thesis state is stable, though recent confidence has shifted to medium.

What's priced into Xylem Inc.

The market appears to price in a low level of fragility, reflecting weak execution quality but not a full concentration of risks. Valuation is considered cheap compared to peers, with a slight expectations gap.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is on track to increase revenue growth and maintain adjusted EBITDA margins, with recent results showing positive trends. However, free cash flow margin performance is mixed, indicating some uncertainty.

What Xylem Inc. hinges on

The thesis hinges on sector performance, particularly the results of major players like GEV, PH, and TT. If these companies continue to perform well, it could support XYL's growth; conversely, any downturn in their performance could negatively impact XYL.