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Track GEV free→GE Vernova (GEV)
NYSEIndustrialsSpecialty Industrial MachinerySnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$982.60+0.36%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been steady, but risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 49% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified, as it is rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. Key factors to watch include potential guidance cuts and sector trends from bellwethers. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Specialty Industrial Machinery
- Market cap
- $252.77B
- Employees
- 75,000
- IPO date
- 2024-03-13
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-22
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $982.60. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$645.76consensus
Range $536.13 – $900.04
vs price: +52% above
Method agreement — · 6 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfair
$1250.43consensus
Range $908.91 – $1567.89
vs price: -21% below
Method agreement — · 4 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Durable premiumlow confidence
At $980 the market pays 52× p/e — above the 26× p/e peer median but in line with its own 51× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $642 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts: $1,080–$1,400. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
52.1x
peer 26.4x · own history 50.6x
Premium
2.0x peer
1.0x its own history
Growth the price needs
53%
our forecast —
Our fair value
$641.90
range $526.10 – $900.36
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensiveexpensive — growth-justified12-month view
What's priced in
The market is pricing in roughly 53% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Elevated fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
58th pctl · Industrials
Earnings quality
fragileOver the trailing year it converted 0.96x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated fragile grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
18th pctl · Industrials
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
stableEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Bullish16 analysts, 78% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $3.13 → $3.20 (+2.2% / 30d). 4 raised, 10 cut, 16 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 78% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
3 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 26.7% above current price.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: industrials is in maturing, with decelerating (~3.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutralProvisional
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- weak
- Margin discipline
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- strong
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$199.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$447.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,457.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceWeeksactive 18d
Watch for Q1 2026 earnings results on April 25
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if GE Vernova's growth and cash flow trends continue. Strong results could boost investor confidence.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Earnings report shows revenue above $9.3 billion and free cash flow over $4.8 billion.
Disproves:Earnings report shows revenue below $9.3 billion and free cash flow below $4.8 billion.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for GEV yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for impacts from upcoming FOMC decisions
- Watch for revenue growth speeding up in Industrials
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like ETN, PH, and CMI keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Industrials sector momentum should keep lifting GEV and other Industrials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If GEV beats again next quarter like it did this past one (a solid beat of +20% on the 2026-03-31 print), the momentum tends to extend, with Street estimates ratcheting up and the stock typically following.
Downside triggers
- If GEV reverses and cuts guidance after recently raising (RAISED as of 2026-04-22), that's the worst kind of move: a credibility hit on top of the lower number. Stocks usually get punished disproportionately for this.
- If sector bellwethers like ETN, PH, and CMI start missing or guiding lower, the Industrials tailwind helping GEV and other Industrials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits GEV and other Industrials names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-221mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 22, 2026, GE Vernova Inc. (the "Company") released its first-quarter 2026 financial results on its investor relations website at www.gevernova.com/investors. A copy of these is attached as Exhibit 99 and incorporated by reference herein. The information provided pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99, is being furnished and shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the "Excha…
Earnings preannouncementpositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-2.9 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.