GE Vernova (GEV)

NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-10-15

$921.20-0.57%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge GE Vernova’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.4%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

24.52 → 24.43 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 20 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 20 to 20; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Free cash flow at least $6.5 billion in FY26	Free cash flow rises to $6.5-$7.5 billion.	Intact	Free cash flow falls below $6.5 billion in FY26	Free cash flow: $5.106B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $6.5 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 22, 20265,106,000,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 4 of last 6 quarters. Free cash flow increased from $0.7B in 2025-Q3 to $5.1B in 2026-Q2, exceeding full-year 2025 levels. Management raised 2026 free cash flow guidance from $6.5-$7.5B to $11.5-$12.5B, reflecting strong cash generation and delivery on capital allocation priorities. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Management maintains stable execution and guidance	The company shows stable management and steady execution.	Intact	Major CEO or executive departures or guidance cuts occur	No guidance cuts; orderly CFO succession CFO retiring with named successor; no major executive disruptions or guidance cuts in recent news. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Adjusted EBITDA margin at least 12% in FY26	A primary condition in GE Vernova's published investment case. The stated target is >= 12%.	Broken	Adjusted EBITDA margin falls below 12% in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 6 of last 6 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA margin improved from 5.7% in 2025-Q1 to 11.3% in 2026-Q2, with management raising 2026 guidance to 12%-14%. Margin expansion driven by volume, price, and productivity gains, indicating delivering on profitability improvement. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Revenue reaches at least $44.5 billion in FY26	A primary condition in GE Vernova's published investment case. The stated target is >= $44.5 billion.	Intact	Revenue falls below $44.5 billion in FY26	Revenue: $11.104B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $44.5 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 22, 202611,104,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: e7030a92-defc-42dd-a7ee-43bcacb4f374. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$24.43

$24.76 → $24.43 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$53.11B

$52.66B → $53.11B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$24.76	$52,661,412,432	22 / 27
2026-07-25	$24.76	$52,661,412,432	22 / 27
2026-07-26	$24.88	$52,734,697,068	22 / 27
2026-07-27	$24.85	$52,498,702,310	28 / 36
2026-07-28	$24.88	$52,734,697,068	22 / 27
2026-07-29	$24.89	$52,798,486,888	22 / 27
2026-07-30	$24.86	$52,489,966,940	28 / 36
2026-07-31	$24.86	$52,489,966,940	28 / 36
2026-08-01	$24.89	$52,798,486,888	22 / 27
2026-08-02	$24.85	$52,485,908,610	28 / 36
2026-08-03	$24.85	$52,485,908,610	28 / 36
2026-08-04	$24.89	$52,798,486,888	22 / 27
2026-08-05	$24.89	$52,798,486,888	22 / 27
2026-08-06	$24.89	$52,798,486,888	22 / 27
2026-08-07	$24.81	$52,875,467,766	22 / 27
2026-08-08	$24.89	$52,507,072,500	28 / 36
2026-08-09	$24.89	$52,507,072,500	28 / 36
2026-08-10	$24.81	$52,875,467,766	22 / 27
2026-08-12	$24.90	$52,519,021,660	28 / 36
2026-08-13	$24.81	$52,875,467,766	22 / 27
2026-08-14	$24.81	$52,875,467,766	22 / 27
2026-08-15	$24.81	$52,875,467,766	22 / 27
2026-08-16	$24.81	$52,875,467,766	22 / 27
2026-08-17	$24.81	$52,875,467,766	22 / 27
2026-08-18	$24.81	$52,875,467,766	22 / 27
2026-08-19	$24.81	$52,875,467,766	22 / 27
2026-08-20	$24.93	$53,047,451,638	23 / 27
2026-08-21	$24.93	$53,056,173,649	22 / 27
2026-08-22	$24.93	$53,056,173,649	22 / 27
2026-08-23	$24.89	$53,075,694,062	22 / 27
2026-08-24	$24.89	$53,075,694,062	21 / 27
2026-08-25	$24.75	$53,075,694,062	21 / 27
2026-08-26	$24.70	$53,111,342,547	21 / 26
2026-08-27	$24.70	$53,111,342,547	21 / 26
2026-08-28	$24.70	$53,111,342,547	21 / 26
2026-08-29	$24.70	$53,087,703,252	21 / 26
2026-08-30	$24.70	$53,087,703,252	21 / 26
2026-08-31	$24.70	$53,087,703,252	21 / 26
2026-09-01	$24.70	$53,087,703,252	21 / 26
2026-09-02	$24.70	$53,087,703,252	21 / 26
2026-09-03	$24.70	$53,062,626,076	21 / 26
2026-09-04	$24.70	$53,062,626,076	21 / 26
2026-09-05	$24.70	$53,062,626,076	21 / 26
2026-09-06	$24.70	$53,062,626,076	21 / 26
2026-09-07	$24.70	$53,062,626,076	20 / 26
2026-09-08	$24.70	$53,062,626,076	20 / 26
2026-09-09	$24.69	$53,062,626,076	20 / 26
2026-09-10	$24.69	$53,062,626,076	20 / 26
2026-09-11	$24.69	$53,062,626,076	20 / 26
2026-09-12	$24.71	$53,075,216,701	20 / 26
2026-09-13	$24.71	$53,075,216,701	20 / 26
2026-09-14	$24.71	$53,075,216,701	20 / 26
2026-09-15	$24.52	$52,993,422,255	20 / 26
2026-09-16	$24.53	$52,990,694,982	20 / 26
2026-09-17	$24.53	$52,990,694,982	20 / 26
2026-09-18	$24.53	$52,990,694,982	20 / 26
2026-09-19	$24.53	$52,990,694,982	20 / 26
2026-09-20	$24.53	$52,990,695,322	20 / 26
2026-09-21	$24.53	$52,990,695,322	20 / 26
2026-09-22	$24.53	$52,990,695,322	20 / 26
2026-09-23	$24.54	$52,990,695,322	20 / 26
2026-09-24	$24.54	$52,990,695,322	20 / 26
2026-09-25	$24.54	$52,990,695,322	20 / 26
2026-09-26	$24.54	$52,990,695,322	20 / 26
2026-09-27	$24.54	$52,990,695,322	20 / 26
2026-09-28	$24.54	$52,990,695,322	20 / 26
2026-09-29	$24.54	$52,990,695,322	20 / 26
2026-09-30	$24.56	$52,990,695,322	20 / 26
2026-10-01	$24.51	$53,021,858,111	21 / 26
2026-10-02	$24.51	$53,069,100,535	20 / 26
2026-10-03	$24.51	$53,069,100,535	20 / 26
2026-10-04	$24.51	$53,069,100,535	20 / 26
2026-10-05	$24.51	$53,069,100,535	20 / 26
2026-10-06	$24.51	$53,069,100,535	20 / 26
2026-10-07	$24.51	$53,069,091,180	20 / 26
2026-10-08	$24.51	$53,069,091,180	20 / 26
2026-10-09	$24.51	$53,069,091,180	19 / 26
2026-10-10	$24.49	$53,074,403,566	20 / 25
2026-10-11	$24.49	$53,074,403,566	20 / 25
2026-10-12	$24.49	$53,074,403,566	20 / 25
2026-10-13	$24.49	$53,074,403,566	20 / 25
2026-10-14	$24.43	$53,107,380,245	20 / 25
2026-10-15	$24.43	$53,107,471,154	20 / 26

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	29	7
2026-06-01	30	8
2026-07-01	30	8
2026-08-01	30	8
2026-09-01	30	7
2026-10-01	30	7

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 30 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

SusquehannaOct 14 · prior Apr 23

$1300.00 → $1270.00-2.3%

Evercore ISIOct 1

$1350.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$742.50$1485.00

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Free cash flow at least $6.5 billion in FY26Free cash flow: $5.106B
Adjusted EBITDA margin at least 12% in FY26Published status: Broken
Revenue reaches at least $44.5 billion in FY26Revenue: $11.104B

Next proof point

Oct 28, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-25.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

GE Vernova outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a stable growth opportunity with a focus on the Power and Electrification segments. The current thesis is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance, but faces sector-related challenges.

What's priced into GE Vernova

The market appears to have priced in a premium compared to peers, reflecting justified expectations based on recent performance. However, there is a slight expectations gap, indicating that some caution is warranted.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is on track with priorities to accelerate growth and increase free cash flow, which bodes well for the fundamentals. However, there is a near-term risk of missing estimates, as the company has shown erratic earnings surprises recently.

What GE Vernova hinges on

The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like PH, TT, and EMR. Positive guidance from these companies could support GEV, while any negative shifts could pose risks to its momentum.