Kirby Corporation (KEX)

NYSEIndustrialsMarine ShippingSnapshot 2026-10-23

$133.15+1.25%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Kirby Corporation’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	924.69M
EPS	—	1.946
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	3.63B
EPS	—	7.117
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	3.87B
EPS	—	8.288

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain disciplined capital allocation and manage debt	A supporting condition in Kirby Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is No material increase in net debt beyond current levels.	Intact	Net debt materially increases beyond current levels	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Free cash flow of at least $575 million	Free cash flow is strong, guided between $575 million and $675 million in 2026.	Intact	Free cash flow falls below $575 million in FY26	Free cash flow: $890,000 FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=575 million USD. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 2026890,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income growth and margin improvement	Profit margins are stable with operating income slightly up to $107.7 million.	Broken	Operating income fails to increase YoY next year	Operating income: $122.357M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating income increases YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 2026122,357,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 85fc5e3e-1048-48bb-8315-6a3a5aa52199. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Marine transportation operating margin declined from 20.1% in 2025-Q2 to 16.4% in 2026-Q2, impacted by fuel cost headwinds and shipyard activity. Distribution and services margins remained stable around 9.9%. Management acknowledges cost pressures but maintains focus on operational excellence. The trajectory shows limited margin improvement amid cost challenges. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue growth to at least 6% YoY	A primary condition in Kirby Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is >=6% YoY.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 6% next year	Revenue growth: 7.83% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=6% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 20267.825543 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 85fc5e3e-1048-48bb-8315-6a3a5aa52199. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$8.29

$8.26 → $8.29 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

$3.79B → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$8.26	$3,785,482,900	6 / 5
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-07-26	$8.26	$3,785,482,900	6 / 5
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-07-29	$8.26	$3,785,482,900	6 / 5
2026-07-30	$8.26	$3,785,482,900	6 / 5
2026-07-31	$8.30	$3,840,874,520	6 / 5
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-02	$8.34	$3,865,407,440	6 / 5
2026-08-03	$8.34	$3,865,407,440	6 / 5
2026-08-04	$8.34	$3,865,407,440	6 / 5
2026-08-05	$8.34	$3,865,407,440	6 / 5
2026-08-06	$8.34	$3,865,407,440	6 / 5
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-08	$8.34	$3,865,407,440	6 / 5
2026-08-09	$8.34	$3,865,407,440	6 / 5
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-18	$8.29	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-19	$8.29	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-20	$8.29	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-21	$8.29	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-22	$8.29	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-23	$8.29	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-24	$8.29	Unavailable	5 / 4

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	6	0
2026-06-01	6	0
2026-07-01	6	0
2026-08-01	6	0
2026-09-01	6	0
2026-10-01	7	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain disciplined capital allocation and manage debtQualitative condition
Free cash flow of at least $575 millionFree cash flow: $890,000
Operating income growth and margin improvementPublished status: Broken
Revenue growth to at least 6% YoYRevenue growth: 7.83%

Next proof point

Oct 28, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-15.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Kirby Corporation outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a stable, long-term thesis focused on a company with solid management and consistent revenue growth. The current state reflects a mix of neutral recent performance and a favorable management execution track record.

What's priced into Kirby Corporation

The market appears to have priced in a neutral valuation compared to peers, with expectations slightly below average. The current valuation suggests that investors are not overly optimistic or pessimistic about KEX's future performance.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is on track with priorities like revenue growth in marine transportation and disciplined capital spending. Recent financial performance has been neutral, with a low probability of missing earnings expectations, although there is a history of earnings misses.

What Kirby Corporation hinges on

The thesis hinges on sector performance, particularly the results of key competitors like MATX and SMHI. If these companies continue to perform well, it could support KEX's growth; however, any negative guidance from them could impact KEX adversely.