Reading HZO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HZO free→Reading HZO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HZO free→NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and management's recent track record has been fairly steady. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Peer multiples imply a price about 67% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified, as it is rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. If HZO cuts guidance on the next call, that's a meaningful negative, as the Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $34.03. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $34 HZO trades at 0× p/s, below its 1× p/s peer median. Our $21 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 62% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about -4%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 48% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=3804).
Over the trailing year it converted -3.44x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=646).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.75 → $0.83 (+10.7% / 30d). 3 raised, 3 cut, 9 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 78% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$180.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$446.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,385.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Staying in this range shows that operations are stable during market challenges.
Confirms:Adjusted EBITDA remains within the $110 million to $125 million range in Q3.
Disproves:Adjusted EBITDA falls below $110 million in Q3.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for HZO yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
and shall not be deemed to be "filed" for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section. The information in this Current Report shall not be incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, whether made before or after the date of this Current Report, regardless of any general incorporation language in the filing.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Consumer Discretionary (broad).
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
HZO MarineMax, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 48 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
BURL Burlington Stores | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
DKS Dick's Sporting Goods | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 43 of 100 | full | moderate |
SN SharkNinja | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 55 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
H Hyatt | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 24 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management aims to enhance operating income through cost management and efficiency improvements.
Management is committed to improving cash flow from operations to support financial stability.
Management aims to improve gross profit margins through strategic pricing and cost control.
Why it matters: A gross profit margin over 34% shows good cost control and strong high-margin sales.
Confirms:Gross profit margin in Q2 exceeds 34%, up from 31.8% in Q1.
Disproves:Gross profit margin falls below 31.8% in Q2.
Why it matters: Lower inventory levels can help cash flow and lower financing costs.
Confirms:Inventories fell by over $128 million compared to last year in Q3.
Disproves:Inventories go up or drop less than $128 million year-over-year in Q3.
Why it matters: Steady or lower inventory levels mean better demand matching and more cash flow.
Confirms:Inventory levels decrease further from $845 million in Q1.
Disproves:Inventory levels increase from $845 million in Q1.
Why it matters: Better cash flow means stronger finances. It also shows more efficient operations.
Confirms:Cash flow from operations increases by more than 10% quarter over quarter.
Disproves:Cash flow from operations is down or stays the same from one quarter to the next.
Why it matters: A drop in sector revenue growth could signal broader market issues. It affects MarineMax's performance.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth drops below its median.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains above its median.
Why it matters: Improving same-store sales would show recovery in consumer demand for boats. This is key for MarineMax's revenue.
Confirms:Same-store sales growth in Q2 exceeds 0% after a 15% decline in Q1.
Disproves:Same-store sales continue to decline year over year in Q2.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. As described below in
Other Events. On March 4, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing a new stock repurchase program. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and is incorporated by reference herein.
and shall not be deemed to be "filed" for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section. The information in this Current Report shall not be incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, whether made before or after the date of this Current Report, regardless of any general incorporation language in the filing.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On October 9, 2025, Charles A. Cashman transitioned from his role as Chief Revenue Officer to Senior Vice President of Global Yacht Sales of MarineMax, Inc. (the “Company”), effective immediately.