Reading HUBS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HUBS free→Reading HUBS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HUBS free→NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, while earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, and it has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is elevated, but the sector backdrop is a tailwind, supporting HUBS. Peer multiples imply a price about 17% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. If HUBS cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $186.12. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $186 HUBS trades at 17× p/e, below its 21× p/e peer median. Our $225 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $190–$382. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 17% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 22%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 68% for the rest of the cohort, n=3704).
Over the trailing year it converted 7.96x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated robust grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=2129).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $3.02 → $3.02 (+0.0% / 30d). 27 raised, 2 cut, 30 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 75% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 3 guided quarters · 5.8% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$256.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$727.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,809.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Revenue growth trends are key for HubSpot's performance. A drop signals weakening demand.
Confirms:HubSpot's revenue growth drops below its median over the past year.
Disproves:Revenue growth stays above its median for the next quarter.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for HUBS yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, HubSpot, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results and other information for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. The full text of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and incorporated herein by reference. The information under this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, is intended to be furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securit…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$190.00 – $382.00 (median $260.00) · 19 analysts · as of 2026-05-11
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Application Software.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
HUBS HubSpot Inc | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 68 of 100 | fair | elevated |
ORCL Oracle Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 66 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
PLTR Palantir Technologies | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
SAP SAP SE | — | — | elevated |
APP AppLovin | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 60 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Information Technology names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=797).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
HubSpot aims to achieve total revenue in the range of $3.700 billion to $3.708 billion for the fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue grew from $703.178 million in 2024-Q4 to $880.995 million in 2026-Q1. The trajectory is delivering towards the $3.7 billion target for 2026.
“Total revenue is expected to be in the range of $3.700 billion to $3.708 billion.”
“Total revenue is expected to be in the range of $3.69 billion to $3.70 billion.”
HubSpot aims for non-GAAP operating income to be in the range of $762.0 million to $766.0 million for the fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Operating income increased from $11.234 million in 2025-Q3 to $27.943 million in 2026-Q1. The trajectory is moving towards the $762M-$766M target for 2026.
“Non-GAAP operating income is expected to be in the range of $762.0 million to $766.0 million.”
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (b) Resignation of Director On March 27, 2026, Ron Gill notified the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of HubSpot, Inc. (the “Company”), that he will resign as a director effective June 30, 2026. Mr. Gill’s resignation was not due to any disagreement with the Company. (d) Election of Director On March 31, 2026, the Board unanimously approved an incr…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 11, 2026, HubSpot, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results and other information for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. The full text of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and incorporated herein by reference. The information under this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, is intended to be furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 5, 2025, HubSpot, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results and other information for the quarter ended September 30, 2025. The full text of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and incorporated herein by reference. The information under this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, is intended to be furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of th…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (d) Election of Director On November 3, 2025, the Board of Directors (the "Board") unanimously approved an increase to the size of the Board to 11 directors and the appointment of Clara Shih as a Class III director of the Company to fill the vacancy created by the increase in the size of the Board. The effective date of Ms. Shih’s appointment was N…
“Non-GAAP operating income is expected to be in the range of $736.0 million to $740.0 million.”