HubSpot Inc (HUBS)
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-09
$230.19-4.26%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-09
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Achieve $762M-$766M operating income in 2026: FY26 operating income guidance $764M vs target $762M-$766M.
HubSpot grows revenue to about $3.7 billion in 2026. Profit rises toward $762 million. The company shows steady customer growth and strong earnings beats. Its valuation is cheaper than peers with solid free cash flow.
AI disruption fears and new competitors may slow growth. Recent selloff and soft guidance raise doubts. Revenue growth could fall below analyst expectations.
The price is about 12% below our fair value near $230. Analysts expect 19% revenue growth. The market partly prices in AI disruption risks that may not materialize.
Breaks if: significant management turnover or negative leadership news
Breaks if: operating income falls below $574M in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on consistent revenue and operating income growth. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance, but it carries high risk due to its loss-making status.
The market appears to be pricing in a premium compared to peers, reflecting expectations of continued growth and execution on management's targets. There is a slight expectations gap, indicating that some future performance may already be anticipated.
Management is on track to achieve its revenue and operating income goals for 2026, which suggests a positive fundamental trajectory. However, there is a near-term risk of earnings misses, particularly as industry peers have been struggling recently.
The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to meet its guidance and the broader tech sector's performance. Key factors include potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and the earnings results of sector bellwethers like SAP, CRM, and NOW.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. HubSpot reported Q2 2026 subscription revenues of $894 million, up 20% year over year, exceeding expectations. However, the company cut its customer growth forecast, which could impact revenue growth. Stronger competitive performance by peers like Salesforce and Microsoft indicates a robust demand environment.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
HubSpot aims for non-GAAP operating income to be in the range of $762.0 million to $766.0 million for the fiscal year 2026.
Target non-GAAP operating income of approximately $762 million to $766 million for fiscal year 2026, improving profitability.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Non-GAAP operating income increased from $100.3 million in 2025-Q1 to $185.3 million in 2026-Q2. Full year 2026 guidance targets $762 million to $766 million non-GAAP operating income, indicating management is delivering improved profitability consistent with stated goals.
“Full Year 2026: Non-GAAP operating income is expected to be in the range of $762.0 million to $766.0 million”
“Full Year 2026: Non-GAAP operating income is expected to be in the range of $762.0 million to $766.0 million”
“Full Year 2026: Non-GAAP operating income is expected to be in the range of $736.0 million to $740.0 million”
Breaks if: revenue falls below $3.1B in FY26
Continue to grow total revenue to approximately $3.7 billion in fiscal year 2026, reflecting strong year-over-year growth.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $714.1 million in 2025-Q1 to $911.7 million in 2026-Q2. Management's full year 2026 revenue guidance ranges from $3.678 billion to $3.686 billion, reflecting 18% year-over-year growth. The trajectory is delivering consistent growth aligned with stated targets.
“Full Year 2026: Total revenue is expected to be in the range of $3.678 billion to $3.686 billion”
“Full Year 2026: Total revenue is expected to be in the range of $3.700 billion to $3.708 billion”
“Full Year 2026: Total revenue is expected to be in the range of $3.69 billion to $3.70 billion”
In the next 1 to 3 years, HUBS will need to navigate its high valuation and execution risks while capitalizing on favorable market conditions. Not investment advice.