HubSpot Inc (HUBS)

NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-10-23

$270.88+1.38%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge HubSpot Inc’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

16.87 → 16.90 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 19 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 19 to 19; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q3
Revenue	$924M–$925M	—
Operating income	$187M–$188Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	964.98M
EPS	—	4.094
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$3.68B–$3.69B	3.68B
EPS	—	13.304
Operating income	$762M–$766Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	4.2B
EPS	—	16.896

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain stable management and execution	A supporting condition in HubSpot Inc's published investment case. The stated target is No major management disruptions or negative changes.	Under Pressure	significant management turnover or negative leadership news	7.0% workforce cut vs 0.0% disruption target HubSpot cut 7% of workforce (660 jobs) and CLO resigned in Oct 2026, signaling major structural and leadership changes. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve $762M-$766M operating income in 2026	A primary condition in HubSpot Inc's published investment case. The stated target is $762M to $766M operating income.	Broken	operating income falls below $574M in FY26	Operating income: $43.319M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $762M to $766M operating income. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 202643,319,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: e2306a0e-0424-4556-91ce-b2848bed9c20. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Non-GAAP operating income increased from $229.4 million in first half 2025 to $342.1 million in first half 2026. Guidance for full year 2026 remains at $762 million to $766 million, consistent with prior quarter, showing progress and delivery on profitability goals. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Achieve about $3.7B revenue in 2026	A primary condition in HubSpot Inc's published investment case. The stated target is ~$3.7B total revenue.	Broken	revenue falls below $3.1B in FY26	Revenue: $911.74M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$3.7B total revenue. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 2026911,740,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: e2306a0e-0424-4556-91ce-b2848bed9c20. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue grew from $714.1 million in 2025-Q1 to $911.7 million in 2026-Q2, a 27.6% increase. Management's guidance for full year 2026 revenue remains near $3.7 billion, consistent with prior quarter guidance, indicating delivery on this growth priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$16.90

$15.62 → $16.90 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$4.20B

$4.29B → $4.20B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$15.62	$4,286,480,746	19 / 26
2026-07-25	$15.62	$4,286,480,746	19 / 26
2026-07-26	$15.62	$4,286,480,746	19 / 26
2026-07-27	$15.62	$4,286,478,728	20 / 26
2026-07-28	$15.62	$4,286,478,728	20 / 26
2026-07-29	$15.60	$4,286,213,890	34 / 33
2026-07-30	$15.60	$4,286,213,890	34 / 33
2026-07-31	$15.60	$4,286,213,890	34 / 33
2026-08-01	$15.59	$4,286,478,722	20 / 26
2026-08-02	$15.60	$4,286,213,890	34 / 33
2026-08-03	$15.60	$4,286,213,890	34 / 33
2026-08-04	$15.60	$4,286,213,890	34 / 33
2026-08-05	$15.60	$4,286,213,890	34 / 33
2026-08-06	$15.60	$4,286,213,890	34 / 33
2026-08-07	$16.16	$4,244,905,672	20 / 26
2026-08-08	$16.48	$4,212,037,760	32 / 31
2026-08-09	$16.54	$4,206,289,370	32 / 31
2026-08-10	$16.54	$4,206,289,370	32 / 31
2026-08-12	$16.56	$4,206,092,830	32 / 32
2026-08-13	$16.16	$4,244,905,672	20 / 26
2026-08-14	$16.16	$4,244,905,672	20 / 26
2026-08-15	$16.16	$4,244,905,672	19 / 26
2026-08-16	$16.16	$4,244,905,672	19 / 26
2026-08-17	$16.16	$4,244,905,672	19 / 26
2026-08-18	$16.16	$4,244,905,672	20 / 26
2026-08-19	$16.16	$4,244,905,672	20 / 26
2026-08-20	$16.69	$4,206,974,685	20 / 26
2026-08-21	$16.69	$4,206,974,685	20 / 26
2026-08-22	$16.73	$4,206,974,685	20 / 26
2026-08-23	$16.73	$4,206,974,685	20 / 26
2026-08-24	$16.73	$4,206,974,685	20 / 26
2026-08-25	$16.73	$4,206,974,685	20 / 26
2026-08-26	$16.73	$4,206,974,685	20 / 26
2026-08-27	$16.73	$4,206,974,685	20 / 26
2026-08-28	$16.73	$4,206,974,685	20 / 26
2026-08-29	$16.73	$4,206,974,685	20 / 25
2026-08-30	$16.73	$4,206,974,685	20 / 25
2026-08-31	$16.73	$4,206,974,685	20 / 25
2026-09-01	$16.73	$4,206,974,685	20 / 25
2026-09-02	$16.73	$4,206,975,585	20 / 25
2026-09-03	$16.73	$4,206,975,585	19 / 25
2026-09-04	$16.73	$4,206,033,069	19 / 25
2026-09-05	$16.73	$4,206,033,069	19 / 25
2026-09-06	$16.73	$4,206,033,069	19 / 25
2026-09-07	$16.73	$4,206,033,069	19 / 25
2026-09-08	$16.73	$4,206,033,069	19 / 25
2026-09-09	$16.73	$4,206,033,069	19 / 25
2026-09-10	$16.73	$4,206,033,069	19 / 25
2026-09-11	$16.76	$4,206,033,069	19 / 25
2026-09-12	$16.76	$4,206,033,069	19 / 24
2026-09-13	$16.76	$4,206,033,069	19 / 24
2026-09-14	$16.76	$4,206,033,069	19 / 24
2026-09-15	$16.76	$4,206,033,069	19 / 24
2026-09-16	$16.76	$4,206,027,701	19 / 24
2026-09-17	$16.76	$4,206,027,701	19 / 24
2026-09-18	$16.76	$4,206,027,701	19 / 24
2026-09-19	$16.76	$4,206,027,701	19 / 24
2026-09-20	$16.86	$4,206,037,356	18 / 23
2026-09-21	$16.86	$4,206,037,356	18 / 23
2026-09-22	$16.87	$4,206,037,356	19 / 24
2026-09-23	$16.87	$4,206,037,356	19 / 24
2026-09-24	$16.87	$4,206,037,356	19 / 24
2026-09-25	$16.88	$4,205,823,688	19 / 25
2026-09-26	$16.88	$4,205,823,688	19 / 25
2026-09-27	$16.88	$4,205,823,688	19 / 25
2026-09-28	$16.88	$4,205,823,688	19 / 25
2026-09-29	$16.88	$4,205,823,688	19 / 25
2026-09-30	$16.88	$4,205,823,688	19 / 25
2026-10-01	$16.88	$4,205,823,688	19 / 25
2026-10-02	$16.88	$4,205,823,688	19 / 25
2026-10-03	$16.88	$4,205,823,688	19 / 25
2026-10-04	$16.88	$4,205,823,688	19 / 25
2026-10-05	$16.88	$4,205,823,688	19 / 25
2026-10-06	$16.87	$4,203,076,312	19 / 25
2026-10-07	$16.87	$4,202,925,876	20 / 25
2026-10-08	$16.88	$4,201,776,286	19 / 25
2026-10-09	$16.88	$4,200,355,913	19 / 25
2026-10-10	$16.88	$4,200,355,913	19 / 25
2026-10-11	$16.88	$4,200,355,913	19 / 25
2026-10-12	$16.88	$4,200,355,913	19 / 25
2026-10-13	$16.88	$4,200,355,913	19 / 25
2026-10-14	$16.88	$4,200,355,913	19 / 25
2026-10-15	$16.90	$4,199,105,913	19 / 25
2026-10-16	$16.90	$4,199,105,913	19 / 25
2026-10-17	$16.90	$4,199,105,913	19 / 25
2026-10-18	$16.90	$4,199,106,945	19 / 25
2026-10-19	$16.90	$4,199,106,945	19 / 25
2026-10-20	$16.90	$4,199,106,945	19 / 25
2026-10-21	$16.90	$4,199,106,945	19 / 25
2026-10-22	$16.90	$4,199,106,945	19 / 25
2026-10-23	$16.90	$4,199,106,945	19 / 25
2026-10-24	$16.90	$4,199,106,945	19 / 25

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	34	8	1
2026-06-01	27	8	1
2026-07-01	27	10	1
2026-08-01	24	19	1
2026-09-01	16	19	1
2026-10-01	14	22	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 14 Buy / Strong Buy · 22 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades3 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 6 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

UBSOct 12 · prior Sep 23

$230.00 → $240.00+4.3%

$0$132.00$264.00

1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain stable management and executionPublished status: Under Pressure
Achieve $762M-$766M operating income in 2026Published status: Broken
Achieve about $3.7B revenue in 2026Published status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

3.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-65.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

HubSpot Inc outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a high-growth technology business with strong recent financial performance, but it is still loss-making under the evidence snapshot’s earnings-quality measure. The multi-year view remains intact, though its signal has shifted from mildly favorable to mixed.

What's priced into HubSpot Inc

HUBS is valued at a 1.3-times premium to peers, and the valuation evidence labels it expensive. The expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations may be ahead of the model; the priced-in assessment is otherwise tagged as justified, with low valuation fragility.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term results show strong growth: quarterly revenue rose from $714.1 million in 2025-Q1 to $911.7 million in 2026-Q2, while management kept its 2026 revenue and operating-income guidance unchanged. Execution is on track against both goals, and the company has begun its share repurchase program; however, the signal is mixed, and guidance cuts or uneven earnings could weaken the setup.

What HubSpot Inc hinges on

The key near-term downside scenario is a guidance cut, which the evidence identifies as a meaningful negative. Rate cuts and continued strong results and guidance from sector peers could support the broader technology backdrop, while HUBS’s own delivery on growth and operating-income goals remains central to the multi-year thesis.