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Hertz (HTZ)
NASDAQIndustrialsRental & Leasing ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-15
Watch· this month
$5.130.00%
Close 2026-06-15 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is weak. Earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady. Risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, HTZ trades below typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 89% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk. This pattern occurs because it trades below peer multiples, but recent financials are weak. The read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-15
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Rental & Leasing Services
- Market cap
- $1.62B
- Employees
- 26,000
- IPO date
- 2016-08-08
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-06
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $5.13. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryinexpensive
$47.70consensus
Range $47.70 – $47.70
vs price: -89% below
Method agreement — · 1 method
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-year—
—consensus
Range — – —
vs price: —
Method agreement —
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-year—
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peerslow confidence
At $5.13 HTZ trades at 0× p/s, below its 2× p/s peer median. Our $48 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $5.00–$5.50. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/S)
0.2x
peer 1.9x · own history 0.2x
Premium
0.1x peer
1.0x its own history
Growth the price needs
-89%
our forecast 2%
Our fair value
$47.70
range $47.70 – $47.70
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is above the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
inexpensivecheap — value-trap risk12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 89% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 2%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired.
Historical context
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
weakOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=3678).
25th pctl · Industrials
Earnings quality
loss makingOver the trailing year it converted -2.19x of net income into operating cash flow.
Macro sensitivity
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
Management & capital allocation
neutral7 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1113).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bearishEPS revised -38.2% / 30d, n=7for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $-0.15 → $-0.20 (-38.2% / 30d). 0 raised, 3 cut, 7 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target -3.3% above current price.
Material events
1 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: industrials is in (~3.2 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutralProvisional
- Capital allocation
- weak
- Earnings discipline
- weak
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- weak
Met or beat guidance 0% of the last 1 guided quarters · -200.0% avg surprise
as of 2026-06-15
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$302.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$669.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,119.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
highas of 2026-06-15
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 18d
Watch for Q2 revenue growth to exceed 10% year-over-year
Why it matters: Steady revenue growth shows Hertz's strategies and operations are working.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth is over 10% compared to last year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth is below 5% compared to last year.
Earnings call
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-06-134d agoYahoo! Finance
Macro pressures could hinder growth and operational objectives.
ChallengesUnconfirmed report
This sector is also watching
- Watch for impacts from upcoming FOMC decisions
- Watch for revenue growth speeding up in Industrials
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like URI, SUNB, and UHAL keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Industrials sector momentum should keep lifting HTZ and other Industrials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If HTZ raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-07), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If HTZ cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-07), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like URI, SUNB, and UHAL start missing or guiding lower, the Industrials tailwind helping HTZ and other Industrials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits HTZ and other Industrials names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-0215d agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. HVF III Rental Car Asset Backed Note Offerings On May 28, 2026, Hertz Vehicle Financing III LLC (“ HVF III ”), a wholly-owned, special-purpose and bankruptcy remote subsidiary of The Hertz Corporation (“ THC ”), issued two series of notes to unaffiliated third parties: (1) the Series 2026-1 Fixed Rate Rental Car Asset Backed Notes, Class A, Class B, Class C, Class D, and Class E, in an aggregate principal amount equal to $500,000,000, pursuant to th…
M&A activitypositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+4.0 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-15
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.