Hertz (HTZ)

NASDAQIndustrialsRental & Leasing ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$2.04-6.42%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Hertz’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	2.17B
EPS	—	-0.275
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	9.19B
EPS	—	-0.778
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	9.55B
EPS	—	-0.059

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Improve cash from operations above $20 million quarterly	A primary condition in Hertz's published investment case. The stated target is cash from operations >= $20 million per quarter.	Under Pressure	cash from operations falls below $10 million	Cash from operations: $381M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: cash from operations >= $20 million per quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 2026381,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Grow Oro Mobility platform for new vehicle markets	The company launched Oro Mobility to expand into new markets.	Improving	no growth or setbacks in Oro Mobility platform	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Reduce operating losses toward break-even	Operating losses improved from -$525 million to -$304 million in the same period.	Under Pressure	operating loss worsens beyond -$400 million	Operating income: $171M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: operating loss > -$304 million but improving. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 2026171,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Sustain revenue growth near $2 billion per quarter	A primary condition in Hertz's published investment case. The stated target is >= $2.0 billion quarterly revenue.	Under Pressure	quarterly revenue falls below $1.8 billion	Revenue: $2.396B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $2.0 billion quarterly revenue. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 20262,396,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 5619a50e-044c-4926-8617-096910c3e1c0. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

Unavailable → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$9.55B

$9.43B → $9.55B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$9,431,237,676	2 / 6
2026-07-25	$-0.10	$9,426,699,090	6 / 8
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$9,422,178,460	3 / 8
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$9,426,653,803	2 / 6
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$9,426,653,803	2 / 6
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$9,426,653,803	3 / 6
2026-07-30	$-0.08	$9,426,685,000	7 / 8
2026-07-31	$-0.12	$9,422,610,000	7 / 8
2026-08-01	Unavailable	$9,422,621,153	3 / 6
2026-08-02	$-0.12	$9,422,610,000	7 / 8
2026-08-03	$-0.12	$9,422,610,000	7 / 8
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$9,422,621,153	3 / 6
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$9,422,621,153	3 / 6
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$9,422,621,153	3 / 6
2026-08-07	Unavailable	$9,422,621,153	3 / 6
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$9,422,621,153	3 / 6
2026-08-09	$-0.11	$9,529,516,900	7 / 8
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$9,422,621,153	3 / 6
2026-08-12	$-0.10	$9,550,191,900	7 / 8
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$9,422,621,153	3 / 6
2026-08-14	Unavailable	$9,422,621,153	3 / 6
2026-08-15	Unavailable	$9,422,621,153	3 / 6
2026-08-16	Unavailable	$9,422,621,153	3 / 6
2026-08-17	Unavailable	$9,422,621,153	3 / 6
2026-08-18	Unavailable	$9,422,621,153	4 / 6
2026-08-19	Unavailable	$9,422,621,153	4 / 6
2026-08-20	Unavailable	$9,567,017,776	4 / 6
2026-08-21	Unavailable	$9,567,017,776	4 / 6
2026-08-22	Unavailable	$9,567,017,776	4 / 6
2026-08-23	Unavailable	$9,567,017,776	4 / 6
2026-08-24	Unavailable	$9,567,017,776	4 / 6
2026-08-25	Unavailable	$9,567,017,776	4 / 6
2026-08-26	Unavailable	$9,567,017,776	4 / 6
2026-08-27	Unavailable	$9,567,017,776	4 / 6
2026-08-28	Unavailable	$9,567,017,776	4 / 6
2026-08-29	Unavailable	$9,567,017,776	4 / 6
2026-08-30	Unavailable	$9,567,017,776	4 / 6
2026-08-31	Unavailable	$9,567,017,776	4 / 6
2026-09-01	Unavailable	$9,567,017,776	4 / 6
2026-09-02	Unavailable	$9,567,017,776	4 / 6
2026-09-03	Unavailable	$9,567,017,776	4 / 6
2026-09-04	Unavailable	$9,567,017,776	4 / 6
2026-09-05	Unavailable	$9,567,017,776	4 / 6
2026-09-06	Unavailable	$9,567,017,776	4 / 6
2026-09-07	Unavailable	$9,567,017,776	4 / 6
2026-09-08	Unavailable	$9,567,017,776	4 / 6
2026-09-09	Unavailable	$9,567,017,776	4 / 6
2026-09-10	Unavailable	$9,567,017,776	4 / 6
2026-09-11	Unavailable	$9,567,017,776	4 / 6
2026-09-12	Unavailable	$9,557,775,834	3 / 6
2026-09-13	Unavailable	$9,557,775,834	3 / 6
2026-09-14	Unavailable	$9,557,775,834	4 / 6
2026-09-15	Unavailable	$9,557,775,834	4 / 6
2026-09-16	Unavailable	$9,557,775,834	4 / 6
2026-09-17	Unavailable	$9,557,775,834	4 / 6
2026-09-18	Unavailable	$9,557,775,834	4 / 6
2026-09-19	Unavailable	$9,557,775,834	4 / 6
2026-09-20	Unavailable	$9,557,775,834	4 / 6
2026-09-21	Unavailable	$9,557,775,834	4 / 6
2026-09-22	Unavailable	$9,557,775,834	4 / 6
2026-09-23	Unavailable	$9,557,775,834	4 / 6
2026-09-24	Unavailable	$9,557,775,834	4 / 6
2026-09-25	Unavailable	$9,557,775,834	4 / 6
2026-09-26	Unavailable	$9,557,775,834	4 / 6
2026-09-27	Unavailable	$9,557,775,834	4 / 6
2026-09-28	Unavailable	$9,557,775,834	4 / 6
2026-09-29	Unavailable	$9,557,775,834	4 / 6
2026-09-30	Unavailable	$9,557,775,834	4 / 6
2026-10-01	Unavailable	$9,557,775,834	4 / 6
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$9,557,775,834	4 / 6
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$9,557,775,834	4 / 6
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$9,557,775,834	4 / 6
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$9,557,775,834	4 / 6
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$9,544,163,334	4 / 6
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$9,544,163,334	4 / 6
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$9,544,163,334	4 / 6
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$9,528,138,556	4 / 6
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$9,528,138,556	4 / 6
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$9,528,138,556	4 / 6
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$9,528,138,556	4 / 6
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$9,528,138,556	4 / 6
2026-10-14	Unavailable	$9,528,138,556	4 / 6
2026-10-15	Unavailable	$9,528,138,556	4 / 6
2026-10-16	Unavailable	$9,545,123,003	4 / 6
2026-10-17	Unavailable	$9,545,123,003	4 / 6
2026-10-18	Unavailable	$9,545,123,003	4 / 6
2026-10-19	Unavailable	$9,545,123,003	4 / 6
2026-10-20	Unavailable	$9,545,123,003	4 / 6
2026-10-21	Unavailable	$9,545,123,003	4 / 6
2026-10-22	Unavailable	$9,545,123,003	4 / 6
2026-10-23	Unavailable	$9,545,123,003	4 / 6
2026-10-24	Unavailable	$9,545,123,003	4 / 6

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	6	3
2026-06-01	6	3
2026-07-01	6	3
2026-08-01	6	3
2026-09-01	6	3
2026-10-01	6	3

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 3 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Improve cash from operations above $20 million quarterlyPublished status: Under Pressure
Grow Oro Mobility platform for new vehicle marketsQualitative condition
Reduce operating losses toward break-evenPublished status: Under Pressure
Sustain revenue growth near $2 billion per quarterPublished status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

3.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-80.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Hertz outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a higher-risk operating recovery, not a proven durable compounder. The multi-year view remains on watch: recent revenue measures improved, but financial performance remains weak and management execution is rated volatile.

What's priced into Hertz

The valuation signal is mixed: HTZ is described as cheap versus peers, while the peer comparison also shows a 6% premium and the valuation model has low confidence. The expectations gap is negative, and the priced-in assessment is marked justified with low fragility, so the evidence does not point to unusually fragile expectations.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue and commercial measures show progress: Q2 revenue rose 10% year over year, with revenue per day up 9% and revenue per unit up 8%. Profitability remains uneven, with a Q2 profit after losses in the prior two quarters, while cost results are mixed and the sector backdrop is a headwind. A guidance cut on the next call is a stated risk, despite a modest estimated miss probability.

What Hertz hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis hinges on whether revenue gains translate into steadier profitability and better cost control. Guidance is a key near-term swing factor. Results and outlook from industrial bellwethers URI, SUNB, and R may also signal whether the sector tailwind strengthens or fades.