Harley-Davidson (HOG)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - ManufacturersSnapshot 2026-10-29
$30.33+2.74%
Close 2026-10-29 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - ManufacturersSnapshot 2026-10-29
Research Workspace
Put HOG beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Consumer Discretionary is in steady. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Management is running behind on a stated commitment.
View ThesisRevenue is contracting — down about 5% over the past year.
View GrowthRanks in the weakest quality tier of its industry — roughly the bottom 42%, softest on free-cash-flow margins.
View QualityMiddle-of-the-pack management execution.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationThis stock is volatile — it swings about 2% on a typical day and fell roughly 35% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskHarley-Davidson’s case rests on improving operating income, though recent performance remains weak. Revenue grew year over year in Q2 after falling in Q1; Q3 earnings missed. Q3 reported earnings per share missed consensus, despite raised guidance for HDMC and HDFS. HOG trades at 19× earnings versus a 15× peer median; expectations look modest versus our view. The next-quarter miss probability is 36%, and reported profits are weakly backed by cash. Management is running behind on a stated commitment. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the thesis is on watch. This read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-10-29. HOG is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 16 analysts currently covering HOG (as of Oct 2026).
Based on 5 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for HOG in the last 4 months.
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Compare HOG with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOG Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 9 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-10-29. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Consumer Discretionary (broad) — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Our valuation methods disagree too much on this name right now. Rather than print a number we don't believe, we're holding it back until they converge.
Compare the value case
Put HOG next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Advances: Grow LiveWire's electric motorcycle business
Separating LiveWire establishes a dedicated electric motorcycle business, though execution and commercial scale remain uncertain.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-10-29. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $30.33
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $30.33.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Around the middle on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Threatens: Grow LiveWire's electric motorcycle business
Reported refusal to support a struggling spinoff raises material concerns about LiveWire's viability and growth objective.
Threatens: Improve operating income and profitability
Low operating-income guidance signals profitability pressure despite a higher retail outlook.
Threatens: Focus on improving operating income
Sharp profit decline is a meaningful headwind to the operating-income objective.
Threatens: Focus on improving operating income
Q3 miss and sharp stock decline signal meaningful pressure on operating performance.
Advances: Increase global retail motorcycle sales
Higher projected sales volume supports retail growth despite net income decline.
Advances: Focus on improving operating income
Quarterly results and raised HDMC and HDFS guidance confirm improved operating outlook.
Threatens: Focus on improving operating income
Earnings and revenue misses signal near-term operating performance pressure.
