NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRecreational VehiclesSnapshot 2026-07-31
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Create your account →Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Consumer Discretionary is in steady. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar under pressure — Operating income margin recovers to at least 5% next year: operating margin 2.0% vs 5%.
View ThesisRevenue is contracting — down about 10% over the past year.
View GrowthMiddle-of-the-pack quality for its industry.
View QualityMiddle-of-the-pack management execution.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationThis stock is volatile — it swings about 2% on a typical day and fell roughly 43% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskHarley-Davidson's growth depends on strong North American sales to justify its price. Recent earnings showed a revenue increase of 6% year over year and a positive earnings surprise of 29%. It trades at 15.1 times P/E, which is below the peer median of 15.8 times. If the company cuts guidance, it could negatively impact the stock. Peer multiples imply a price about 16% above where it trades; this read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-07-31. HOG is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 17 analysts currently covering HOG (as of Jul 2026).
Based on 5 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for HOG in the last 4 months.
A consensus fair price across 9 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-08-01. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Consumer Discretionary (broad) — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Our valuation methods disagree too much on this name right now. Rather than print a number we don't believe, we're holding it back until they converge.
Advances: Increase global retail motorcycle sales
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-07-31. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $24.54
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $24.54.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Targets retail units and improves income outlook.
Advances: Improve operating income and margin
Earnings call provides insights on operating income.
Advances: Increase global retail motorcycle sales
Stronger sales of affordable bikes support retail sales growth.
Threatens: Improve operating income and margin
Profit dip threatens operating income and margin objective.
Advances: Increase global retail motorcycle sales
Sales climb supports global retail motorcycle sales growth.
Advances: Focus on improving operating income
Raised guidance enhances focus on improving operating income.
Threatens: Improve operating income and margin
Lower results due to rising costs threaten operating income.
Advances: Increase global retail motorcycle sales
Strong sales directly support the goal of increasing retail sales.
