Harley-Davidson (HOG)

NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - ManufacturersSnapshot 2026-10-23

$28.96-0.52%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Harley-Davidson’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.7%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

1.94 → 1.93 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 11 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 12 to 11; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	591.52M
EPS	—	-0.771
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	3.86B
EPS	—	0.703
Operating income	$45M–$60M	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	4.03B
EPS	—	1.926

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Capital investments remain within $175M-$200M and measured buybacks continue	A supporting condition in Harley-Davidson's published investment case. The stated target is $175M-$200M capital investment, continued measured buybacks.	Intact	Capital spending exceeds $200M or buybacks stop in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. The company maintained capital investment guidance of $175M-$200M for 2026 and repurchased $158M of shares in the first half of 2026, including $128M in Q1. The share repurchase activity and capital investment guidance reflect disciplined capital allocation with ongoing execution. Delivery assessment Oct 21, 2026
Harley maintains market share despite new electric motorcycle competition	Harley-Davidson grew North American motorcycle sales 14% in 2026-Q1.	Improving	Significant market share loss to electric motorcycle competitors	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income margin recovers to at least 5% next year	A primary condition in Harley-Davidson's published investment case. The stated target is >=5% margin.	Improving	Operating margin stays below 5% in FY27	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. HDMC operating income improved from a loss of $260M in 2025-Q4 to a profit of $72M in 2026-Q2, with operating margin rising from 5.9% to 6.6% year-over-year in Q2. Full-year 2026 HDMC operating income guidance was raised to $10M-$50M. The trajectory shows improvement and partial delivery on operating income and margin. Delivery assessment Oct 21, 2026
Global retail motorcycle sales grow at least 5% YoY	Harley-Davidson grew North American motorcycle sales 14% in 2026-Q1.	Improving	Global retail motorcycle sales growth falls below 5% YoY next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Global retail motorcycle sales grew from 132,535 units in full year 2025 to 42,500 units in Q2 2026 (up 1% year-over-year), with North American retail sales up 3% in Q2. The company raised full-year 2026 retail sales guidance to 133,500-138,500 units. The trajectory is delivering with growth in North America and a raised sales outlook. Delivery assessment Oct 21, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$1.93

$1.97 → $1.93 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$4.03B

$4.02B → $4.03B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$1.97	$4,018,185,283	12 / 9
2026-07-25	$1.97	$4,018,185,283	12 / 9
2026-07-26	$1.93	$3,920,501,510	12 / 11
2026-07-27	$1.95	$3,915,883,540	14 / 11
2026-07-28	$1.97	$4,023,991,951	11 / 8
2026-07-29	$1.97	$4,023,991,951	11 / 8
2026-07-30	$1.96	$3,915,883,540	14 / 11
2026-07-31	$1.96	$3,915,883,540	14 / 11
2026-08-01	$1.91	$4,017,295,014	11 / 8
2026-08-02	$1.96	$3,915,883,540	14 / 11
2026-08-03	$1.91	$4,017,295,014	11 / 8
2026-08-04	$1.91	$4,017,295,014	11 / 8
2026-08-05	$1.96	$3,913,601,720	14 / 11
2026-08-06	$1.96	$3,913,601,720	14 / 11
2026-08-07	$1.91	$4,017,295,014	11 / 8
2026-08-08	$1.96	$3,913,601,720	14 / 11
2026-08-09	$1.96	$3,913,601,720	14 / 11
2026-08-10	$1.91	$4,017,295,014	11 / 8
2026-08-12	$1.96	$3,913,601,720	14 / 11
2026-08-13	$1.96	$3,913,601,720	14 / 11
2026-08-14	$1.91	$4,017,295,014	11 / 8
2026-08-15	$1.91	$4,017,295,014	11 / 8
2026-08-16	$1.91	$4,017,295,014	11 / 8
2026-08-17	$1.91	$4,017,295,014	11 / 8
2026-08-18	$1.91	$4,017,295,014	11 / 9
2026-08-19	$1.91	$4,017,295,014	11 / 9
2026-08-20	$1.91	$4,034,847,954	12 / 9
2026-08-21	$1.91	$4,034,847,954	12 / 9
2026-08-22	$1.91	$4,034,847,954	12 / 9
2026-08-23	$1.91	$4,034,847,954	12 / 9
2026-08-24	$1.91	$4,034,847,954	12 / 9
2026-08-25	$1.91	$4,034,729,577	12 / 9
2026-08-26	$1.91	$4,034,729,577	12 / 9
2026-08-27	$1.91	$4,034,729,577	12 / 9
2026-08-28	$1.91	$4,034,729,577	12 / 9
2026-08-29	$1.91	$4,034,729,577	12 / 9
2026-08-30	$1.91	$4,034,729,577	12 / 9
2026-08-31	$1.91	$4,034,729,577	12 / 9
2026-09-01	$1.91	$4,034,729,577	12 / 9
2026-09-02	$1.91	$4,034,729,577	12 / 9
2026-09-03	$1.94	$4,014,742,987	12 / 9
2026-09-04	$1.94	$4,014,742,987	12 / 9
2026-09-05	$1.94	$4,014,742,987	12 / 9
2026-09-06	$1.94	$4,014,742,987	12 / 9
2026-09-07	$1.94	$4,014,742,987	12 / 9
2026-09-08	$1.94	$4,014,742,987	12 / 9
2026-09-09	$1.94	$4,015,317,006	12 / 9
2026-09-10	$1.94	$4,015,317,006	12 / 9
2026-09-11	$1.94	$4,015,317,006	12 / 9
2026-09-12	$1.94	$4,015,317,006	12 / 9
2026-09-13	$1.94	$4,015,317,006	12 / 9
2026-09-14	$1.94	$4,015,317,006	12 / 9
2026-09-15	$1.94	$4,015,317,006	12 / 9
2026-09-16	$1.94	$4,015,317,006	12 / 9
2026-09-17	$1.94	$4,015,317,006	12 / 9
2026-09-18	$1.94	$4,015,317,006	12 / 9
2026-09-19	$1.94	$4,015,317,006	12 / 9
2026-09-20	$1.94	$4,015,317,006	12 / 9
2026-09-21	$1.94	$4,015,317,006	12 / 9
2026-09-22	$1.94	$4,015,317,006	12 / 9
2026-09-23	$1.94	$4,015,317,006	12 / 9
2026-09-24	$1.94	$4,015,317,006	12 / 9
2026-09-25	$1.94	$4,017,250,339	12 / 9
2026-09-26	$1.94	$4,017,250,339	12 / 9
2026-09-27	$1.94	$4,017,250,339	12 / 9
2026-09-28	$1.94	$4,017,250,339	12 / 9
2026-09-29	$1.94	$4,017,250,339	12 / 9
2026-09-30	$1.94	$4,017,250,339	12 / 9
2026-10-01	$1.94	$4,017,250,339	12 / 9
2026-10-02	$1.94	$4,017,250,339	12 / 9
2026-10-03	$1.94	$4,017,250,339	12 / 9
2026-10-04	$1.93	$4,023,082,506	11 / 9
2026-10-05	$1.93	$4,023,082,506	11 / 8
2026-10-06	$1.93	$4,023,082,506	11 / 8
2026-10-07	$1.94	$4,024,379,746	11 / 8
2026-10-08	$1.94	$4,024,379,746	11 / 8
2026-10-09	$1.94	$4,024,379,746	11 / 8
2026-10-10	$1.94	$4,024,379,746	11 / 8
2026-10-11	$1.94	$4,024,379,746	11 / 8
2026-10-12	$1.94	$4,024,379,746	11 / 8
2026-10-13	$1.94	$4,024,379,746	11 / 8
2026-10-14	$1.94	$4,024,379,746	11 / 8
2026-10-15	$1.94	$4,024,379,746	11 / 8
2026-10-16	$1.94	$4,024,379,746	11 / 8
2026-10-17	$1.94	$4,024,379,746	11 / 8
2026-10-18	$1.94	$4,024,379,746	11 / 8
2026-10-19	$1.94	$4,024,379,746	11 / 8
2026-10-20	$1.94	$4,024,379,746	11 / 8
2026-10-21	$1.93	$4,025,465,460	11 / 8
2026-10-22	$1.93	$4,025,465,460	11 / 8
2026-10-23	$1.93	$4,025,465,460	11 / 8
2026-10-24	$1.93	$4,025,465,460	11 / 8

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	5	9	2
2026-06-01	5	9	2
2026-07-01	6	9	2
2026-08-01	6	8	2
2026-09-01	6	8	2
2026-10-01	6	8	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 8 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

1 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Evercore ISIOct 5

$33.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$18.15$36.30

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Capital investments remain within $175M-$200M and measured buybacks continueDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Harley maintains market share despite new electric motorcycle competitionQualitative condition
Operating income margin recovers to at least 5% next yearDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Global retail motorcycle sales grow at least 5% YoYDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-37.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Harley-Davidson outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a cyclical recovery story, meaning results can vary with demand and the broader consumer sector. The long-term thesis has improved from mixed to mildly favorable, but the current state remains watch because recent financial performance is weak relative to its industry cohort.

What's priced into Harley-Davidson

The valuation is described as cheap, though HOG trades at a small premium to peers. Expectations appear broadly aligned with the thesis, with only a modest negative expectations gap, so the evidence does not point to severe weakness being fully reflected in the valuation.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term results may remain uneven: the company has a recent earnings miss as well as a more recent earnings beat, and its earnings quality is fragile. Over the multi-year view, retail sales and operating income are showing improvement, and management has raised full-year 2026 retail sales and operating income guidance.

What Harley-Davidson hinges on

A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative, while continued execution on retail sales and margins would support the recovery case. The sector backdrop also matters: stronger results and guidance from TSLA, GM, and F could sustain a tailwind, while misses or weaker guidance could remove it.