Harley-Davidson (HOG)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - ManufacturersSnapshot 2026-09-09
$26.67-1.88%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - ManufacturersSnapshot 2026-09-09
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Harley-Davidson grew North American motorcycle sales 14% in 2026-Q1. Global sales rose 8% despite international weakness. The company keeps capital spending between $175M and $200M. Cost cuts and US production moves help margins and cash flow.
Operating income fell 85% in 2026-Q1 to $23M. Revenue is expected to decline about 6% next year. Competition and leadership issues threaten growth and profits.
The price is about 1% above our fair value near $25. Analysts expect revenue to fall about 6% next year. Our fair value is below the Street median, reflecting cautious outlook.
Breaks if: Capital spending exceeds $200M or buybacks stop in FY26
Maintain disciplined capital investments of $175M-$200M and execute share repurchases strategically.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround story with a focus on improving operational metrics. The current thesis state is cautious, as recent financial performance has been weak, but there are signs of potential improvement.
The market appears to have priced in some fragility due to weak execution quality, but the valuation remains cheap compared to peers. There is a slight expectations gap, suggesting that the market is not overly optimistic about future performance.
Fundamentals may improve as management focuses on increasing motorcycle sales and enhancing operating income. However, there is a near-term risk of missing earnings expectations, which could impact sentiment.
The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to execute on their priorities, particularly in sales growth and margin improvement. Additionally, external factors like inflation and sector performance will play a crucial role in shaping future outcomes.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Signal changed from 'mixed' to 'mild_favorable'.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. DA Davidson raised its estimate for Harley-Davidson shares to $33, reflecting strong Q2 results. However, Canada is imposing a 50% tariff on U.S. motorcycles over 800cc, which could hurt sales. This tariff may shift market share to non-U.S. competitors, impacting future revenue.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. The company maintained capital investment guidance of $175M-$200M for 2026 and repurchased $158M of shares in the first half of 2026, including $128M in Q1. The share repurchase activity and capital investment guidance reflect disciplined capital allocation with ongoing execution.
“Repurchased $158 million of shares on a discretionary basis in first half 2026”
“Repurchased $128 million of shares on a discretionary basis in Q1 2026”
“Entered accelerated share repurchase agreement for $200 million in Q4 2025”
Breaks if: Significant market share loss to electric motorcycle competitors
Breaks if: Operating margin stays below 5% in FY27
Focus on improving operating income and margins across Harley-Davidson Motor Company and Financial Services segments.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. HDMC operating income improved from a loss of $260M in 2025-Q4 to a profit of $72M in 2026-Q2, with operating margin rising from 5.9% to 6.6% year-over-year in Q2. Full-year 2026 HDMC operating income guidance was raised to $10M-$50M. The trajectory shows improvement and partial delivery on operating income and margin.
“HDMC operating income of $72 million, up 18% vs prior year; operating margin 6.6%, up 0.7 pts”
“HDMC operating income of $19 million, down 84% vs prior year; operating margin 1.8%”
“HDMC operating loss of $260 million in Q4; full year operating loss of $29 million”
Breaks if: Global retail motorcycle sales growth falls below 5% YoY next year
Grow global retail motorcycle sales through North American strength and new product introductions.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Global retail motorcycle sales grew from 132,535 units in full year 2025 to 42,500 units in Q2 2026 (up 1% year-over-year), with North American retail sales up 3% in Q2. The company raised full-year 2026 retail sales guidance to 133,500-138,500 units. The trajectory is delivering with growth in North America and a raised sales outlook.
“North American retail motorcycle sales of 29,751 units, up 3% vs. prior year; global retail sales up 1%”
“Global retail motorcycle sales of 33,507 units, up 8% vs. prior year; North American retail sales up 14%”
“Global retail motorcycle sales of 132,535 units, down 12% from prior year”
Overall, HOG is in a watch state as it works through operational challenges and market headwinds. Not investment advice.