Reading GROV? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track GROV free→Reading GROV? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track GROV free→NYSEConsumer StaplesHousehold & Personal ProductsSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and it has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, but compared with sector peers, GROV is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 68% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while recent financials are weak. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $1.20. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $1.20 GROV trades at 0× p/s, below its 1× p/s peer median. Our $3.94 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 70% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -15%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
No fragility gates fired.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=1144).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.08x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
12 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=491).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.07 → $-0.06 (+14.3% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$164.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$456.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,121.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Retail sales data shows how much people want to buy. This affects Grove's sales.
Confirms one read:Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report shows retail sales growth above 1% month over month.
Confirms the other:Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report shows retail sales decline month over month.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for GROV yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 7, 2026, Grove Collaborative Holdings, Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing its earnings for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of such press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and incorporated herein by reference. The information provided pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, is being furnished to the Securities and Exchange Commission and shall not…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Household Products.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
GROV Grove Collaborative Holdings | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 31 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
CL Colgate-Palmolive | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 56 of 100 | full | moderate |
KMB Kimberly-Clark | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | fair | moderate |
CHD Church & Dwight | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 38 of 100 | expensive | low |
CLX Clorox | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 73 of 100 | fair | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLP
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management aims to achieve Adjusted EBITDA breakeven to positive low single-digit millions by the end of 2026.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. The company has consistently guided towards Adjusted EBITDA breakeven to positive low single-digit millions for 2026. Despite this, the financials show a net income loss of $1.009 million in 2026-Q1, indicating limited progress towards profitability.
“Adjusted EBITDA guidance to breakeven to positive low single digit millions.”
“Full year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be approximately breakeven.”
“Full year 2025 Adjusted EBITDA is still expected to be within the previously communicated guidance range.”
The company raised its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $142.5 million to $152.5 million.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The company raised its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $142.5M-$152.5M. However, revenue declined from $43.5M in 2025-Q1 to $36.2M in 2026-Q1, indicating a challenging trajectory towards meeting the guidance.
The company is focusing on strategic partnerships to enhance growth and market presence.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The company has announced strategic partnerships as a key growth strategy. Despite these announcements, revenue has declined from $43.5M in 2025-Q1 to $36.2M in 2026-Q1, showing limited impact on financial performance so far.
“Grove announced a strategic partnership as part of its growth strategy.”
Why it matters: If sector growth picks up, it could improve Grove's performance outlook.
Confirms:Consumer Staples revenue growth exceeds 6% year over year.
Disproves:Consumer Staples revenue growth remains below 4% year over year.
Other Events Where You Can Find More Information Investors and others should note that we announce material financial and operational information to company investors using a variety of disclosure channels as a means of disclosing information about the company, our products and for complying with disclosure obligations under Regulation FD , including: • Our company website (grove.co) • Our investor relations website (investors.grove.co) • Our company social media channels including: x.com/gro…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On March 5, 2026, Grove Collaborative Holdings, Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing its earnings for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of such press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and incorporated herein by reference. The information provided pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, is being furnished to the Securities and Exchange Commission…
Other Events On March 17, 2026, Grove Collaborative Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) received notification from the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) that the Company has regained compliance in relation to the NYSE’s quantitative continued listing standard as a result of the Company’s achievement of compliance with the NYSE’s minimum market capitalization and stockholders’ equity requirement of Section 802.01B of the NYSE Listed Company Manual (the “NYSE Manual”) as of March 17, 2026.
Other Events Where You Can Find More Information Investors and others should note that we announce material financial and operational information to company investors using a variety of disclosure channels as a means of disclosing information about the company, our products and for complying with disclosure obligations under Regulation FD , including: • Our company website (grove.co) • Our investor relations website (investors.grove.co) • Our company social media channels including: x.com/gro…
“The Company now expects full-year net revenue of approximately $142.5 million to $152.5 million.”
“For full-year 2026, the Company expects net revenue to be approximately $140 million to $150 million.”
“Grove Collaborative Holdings, Inc. received notification from the NYSE.”