Grove Collaborative Holdings (GROV)
NYSEConsumer StaplesHousehold & Personal ProductsSnapshot 2026-09-09
$1.06-0.93%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesHousehold & Personal ProductsSnapshot 2026-09-09
Warn: Management is running behind on a stated commitment.
Grove aims to reach adjusted EBITDA breakeven in 2026. Revenue guidance was raised to about $147.5 million for 2026. The company focuses on strategic partnerships to grow. Recent earnings beats show some progress.
Grove is still loss-making with volatile management. Revenue fell from $43.5M to $36.2M in one year. CFO recently resigned, adding uncertainty. Analysts expect revenue to shrink about 2% next year.
The market expects about 2% revenue decline next year. Our fair value is $3.69, reflecting a turnaround but with risks. We see some upside if Grove hits breakeven and grows revenue.
Breaks if: Adjusted EBITDA remains negative or below breakeven in 2026
Continue disciplined cost management and operational improvements to reach Adjusted EBITDA breakeven or positive low single digit millions in 2026.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround scenario, as GROV aims to achieve adjusted EBITDA breakeven and improve revenue guidance. The current thesis state is cautious, with recent performance showing weakness compared to peers.
The market appears to price in a low expectation for GROV, reflecting a valuation that is cheap compared to peers. The expectations gap indicates that investors are not anticipating significant improvements in performance.
Management has reaffirmed its goals for adjusted EBITDA and revenue growth, but recent financial performance has been weak. The trajectory shows some positive signs, like consecutive quarters of positive adjusted EBITDA, but overall results remain below industry standards.
The thesis hinges on management's ability to deliver on its guidance and the potential for favorable sector conditions, such as inflation reaccelerating or strong performance from sector leaders. A cut in guidance could lead to negative sentiment.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Our read on the company is unchanged since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA guidance for full-year 2026 was approximately breakeven in 2025-Q4, raised to breakeven to positive low single digit millions in 2026-Q1 and reaffirmed in 2026-Q2. Actual Adjusted EBITDA was positive $0.3 million in 2026-Q1 and $0.5 million in 2026-Q2, marking consecutive quarters of positive Adjusted EBITDA. The trajectory is delivering as management has been emphasizing.
“Reaffirming full-year Adjusted EBITDA guidance of breakeven to positive low single digit millions.”
“Raising full-year Adjusted EBITDA guidance to breakeven to positive low single digit millions.”
“Full year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be approximately breakeven.”
Breaks if: Full-year revenue falls below $142.5 million in 2026
Raise and reaffirm full-year 2026 net revenue guidance to approximately $142.5 million to $152.5 million.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Full-year 2026 net revenue guidance was $140M-$150M in 2025-Q4, raised to $142.5M-$152.5M in 2026-Q1 and reaffirmed in 2026-Q2. Quarterly net revenue was $36.2M in 2026-Q1 and $36.6M in 2026-Q2, showing a slight sequential increase. The trajectory matches management's stated guidance.
“Reaffirming full-year net revenue guidance of approximately $142.5 million to $152.5 million.”
“Raising full-year net revenue guidance to approximately $142.5 million to $152.5 million, raised from prior range of $140 million to $150 million.”
“For full-year 2026, the Company expects net revenue to be approximately $140 million to $150 million.”
Breaks if: No meaningful revenue growth from partnerships by end 2026
Pursue and announce strategic partnerships to support growth and operational capabilities.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters with announcements of strategic partnerships in 2025-Q4, 2026-Q1, and 2026-Q2. While these partnerships are highlighted as growth drivers, the financials show revenue declines year-over-year but slight sequential improvement in 2026-Q2. The trajectory shows persistent focus with limited substantive revenue growth so far.
“GROV 6 strategic partnership announced on August 6, 2026.”
“GROV 6 strategic partnership announced on May 7, 2026.”
“GROV 6 strategic partnership announced on March 5, 2026.”
In the next 1 to 3 years, GROV's performance will depend on its execution against stated goals and broader market conditions. Not investment advice.