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Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc (GPMT)
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-06-15
Watch· this week
$1.45-1.36%
Close 2026-06-15 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is weak, and earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and it has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is low, but the sector backdrop is a headwind, with performance compared to sector peers being typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 74% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples, but recent financials are weak. This analysis is provisional.
as of 2026-06-15
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Real Estate
- Industry
- Reit - Mortgage
- Market cap
- $70.44M
- Employees
- 28
- IPO date
- 2017-08-14
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-04
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $1.45. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryinexpensive
$5.80consensus
Range $5.80 – $5.80
vs price: -75% below
Method agreement — · 1 method
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearexpensive
$0.44consensus
Range $0.44 – $0.44
vs price: +228% above
Method agreement — · 1 method
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-year—
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peerslow confidence
At $1.45 GPMT trades at 1× p/s, below its 2× p/s peer median. Our $5.09 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/S)
0.5x
peer 1.9x · own history —
Premium
0.3x peer
Growth the price needs
-72%
our forecast -15%
Our fair value
$5.09
range $5.09 – $5.09
WhyEarnings too small for P/EPeer anchor overstates the discount
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
inexpensivecheap — value-trap risk12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 72% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -15%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
weakOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=1506).
16th pctl · Real Estate
Earnings quality
loss makingOver the trailing year it converted -0.16x of net income into operating cash flow.
Macro sensitivity
Not enough signal yet.
Management & capital allocation
neutral6 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
60th pctl · Real Estate
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bearish2 analysts, 0% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $-0.20 → $-0.20 (+0.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 2 cut, 2 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
Material events
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Sector context
Intermediate · Weeklyheadwind-6.7%sector vs S&P 500, 60d
via XLRE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- weak
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- weak
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-15
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
Not enough price history for this read.
How much price usually moves either way.
Not enough price history for this read.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $649.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
lowas of 2026-06-15
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideMedium confidenceQuartersactive 4d
Watch for sector revenue growth speeding up again.
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it could signal a positive shift in the real estate sector.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Real estate sector revenue growth exceeds 5% year over year.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains below 5% year over year.
Sector context
as of 2026-06-15
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for GPMT yet.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for GPMT and other Real Estate names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like AGNC, DX, and ARR keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Real Estate sector momentum should keep lifting GPMT and other Real Estate names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If GPMT beats again next quarter like it did this past one (a big beat of +82% on the 2026-03-31 print), the momentum tends to extend, with Street estimates ratcheting up and the stock typically following.
Downside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like AGNC, DX, and ARR start missing or guiding lower, the Real Estate tailwind helping GPMT and other Real Estate names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits GPMT and other Real Estate names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-0512d agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On June 4, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc. (the “Company”) adopted a revised Director Compensation Policy (the “Policy”), effective immediately. The Policy provides for cash and equity compensation to be paid to members of the Board for their service on the Board and its committees. Under the Policy a…
Executive changeneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+1.4 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-15
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.