Reading FIVE? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FIVE free→Reading FIVE? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FIVE free→NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, while management's recent track record has been steady. Earnings quality is mixed, and risk is moderate, with the sector backdrop presenting a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 43% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified, as it is rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends from bellwethers like WSM, ULTA, and DKS. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $189.41. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $194 the market pays 24× p/e — above the 15× p/e peer median but in line with its own 32× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $133 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts: $211–$285. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 46% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about 25%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality.
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated strong grew net income 70% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.55x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=3229).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.12 → $1.31 (+16.7% / 30d). 17 raised, 1 cut, 21 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 11 maintained. 64% of analysts rate Buy.
9 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 18.5% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 9.0% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$135.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$323.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,471.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This range is part of the company's guidance and shows its growth strategy. Meeting this target is crucial for overall revenue goals.
Confirms:Q2 net sales reported between $1.18 billion and $1.20 billion.
Disproves:Q2 net sales reported below $1.18 billion.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Threatens: Expand store count by 200 in 2026
Loss of key section may hinder store expansion plans.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On June 3, 2026, Five Below, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release regarding its sales and earnings results for the first quarter ended May 2, 2026 (the “Press Release”). A copy of the Press Release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1, and is being furnished, not filed, under
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$211.00 – $285.00 (median $242.00) · 11 analysts · as of 2026-06-05
Looks more expensive than peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Consumer Discretionary (broad).
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
FIVE Five Below | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 88 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
BURL Burlington Stores | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
DKS Dick's Sporting Goods | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 43 of 100 | full | moderate |
SN SharkNinja | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 55 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
H Hyatt | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 24 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated stable grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=483).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
The company aims to expand its store count by 200 locations in 2026.
The company aims to achieve revenue between $5.4 billion and $5.48 billion in 2026.
The company aims to increase its EPS to between $8.62 and $9.02 in 2026.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show sales and margins. This can affect how investors feel.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows stronger than expected sales growth and stable margins.
Confirms the other:The earnings report shows sales growth is weaker than expected. Margins may also be declining.
Why it matters: This growth rate is key to meeting the company's revenue outlook for 2026. It shows how well Five Below is attracting customers.
Confirms:Q2 comparable sales growth lands between 7% and 9%.
Disproves:Q2 comparable sales growth falls below 7%.
Why it matters: Meeting this revenue target shows the company's growth strategy is working. It is key for investor confidence.
Confirms:Q2 revenue reported within the range of $5.4B to $5.48B.
Disproves:Q2 revenue falls below $5.4B.
Why it matters: Retail sales data shows how people shop. It directly impacts Five Below's sales.
Confirms one read:The retail sales report shows growth over 1% from last month.
Confirms the other:The retail sales report shows a drop below 0% from last month.
Why it matters: This EPS range shows strong profits. It can make investors feel more positive.
Confirms:EPS reported within the range of $8.62 to $9.02.
Disproves:EPS reported below $8.62.
Why it matters: Tariffs can affect product costs and pricing. Monitoring this helps gauge potential impacts on sales and margins.
Confirms one read:Sales outlook stays steady even with current tariff rates.
Confirms the other:Sales outlook weakens due to the impact of tariffs.
Why it matters: Changes in consumer prices can change how people spend. This affects Five Below's sales.
Confirms one read:The CPI report shows inflation is easing. This helps support consumer spending.
Confirms the other:The CPI report shows inflation is rising. This leads to less consumer spending.
Why it matters: Opening new stores is part of Five Below's growth strategy. It indicates how well the company is expanding its footprint.
Confirms:About 50 new stores opened in Q2.
Disproves:Fewer than 45 new stores are opened in Q2.
Why it matters: If revenue growth falls below median, it signals a potential shift in the growth phase.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported below the median growth rate for the sector.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth remains above the median growth rate for the sector.
Why it matters: This range helps us see how much money Five Below makes. It shows how well the company controls costs and increases sales.
Confirms:Net income for Q2 2026 falls between $64 million and $71 million.
Disproves:Net income for Q2 2026 is below $64 million.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 18, 2026, Five Below, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release regarding its sales and earnings results for the fourth quarter and full year of fiscal 2025 (the “Press Release”). A copy of the Press Release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1, and is being furnished, not filed, under
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. George S. Hill’s employment with the Company ceased on February 3, 2026. On February 8, 2026, the Company and Mr. Hill entered into a Separation Agreement and Release (the “Separation Agreement”) to confirm his entitlement to severance benefits under the Company’s Executive Severance Plan (the “Executive Severance Plan”), subject to his execution o…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Appointment of Chief Financial Officer On August 25, 2025, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Five Below, Inc. (the “Company”) appointed Daniel Sullivan as the Company’s Chief Financial Officer, effective October 6, 2025 (the “Appointment Date”). Mr. Sullivan will assume the roles of principal financial officer and principal accounting officer…