Five Below (FIVE)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-09
$247.12-2.74%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-09
Warn: Primary pillar under pressure — EPS near $8.82 in 2026: EPS $8.82 vs target $8.82.
Five Below grows revenue about 32% yearly. Profit per share is guided near $8.82 for 2026. The company plans to add 200 stores in 2026. Leadership changes may improve strategy.
Store safety issues and loss of key store sections may hurt growth. Guidance was cut despite recent earnings beat. The stock price fell nearly 29% from its high.
The price is about 17% below our fair value near $214. Analysts expect about 32% revenue growth. Our fair value is below the Street median, so weigh the Street range.
Breaks if: EPS falls below $7.5 in FY26
Breaks if: Significant management turnover or strategic missteps
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $5.0 billion in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
FIVE represents a durable compounder with a focus on growth through store expansion and revenue increases. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong financial performance, despite recent challenges such as an earnings miss.
The valuation is considered expensive compared to peers, reflecting a premium of 2.08. The market appears to have priced in robust growth expectations, though there is a slight expectations gap indicating some caution.
FIVE's fundamentals are likely to continue showing strong performance, as management has raised revenue and EPS guidance for fiscal 2026. However, there is a moderate risk due to a recent earnings miss and ongoing litigation.
The thesis hinges on management's ability to execute its expansion plans and maintain revenue growth. Additionally, external factors such as inflation rates and the performance of sector bellwethers like AMZN and BABA will be crucial.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Company momentum rose by 23.3 points (from -23.3 to 0.0).
Confidence changed from 'medium' to 'high'.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat showed strong sales growth, with net sales up 22.9% to $1.26 billion. Analysts raised their price targets, reflecting expectations for higher valuation multiples based on the company's performance. The outlook for achieving $5.4 billion to $5.48 billion in revenue for fiscal 2026 is now more secure.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
The company aims to expand its store count by 200 locations in 2026.
Breaks if: Store count expansion falls short of 150 new stores in 2026
The company aims to expand its store count by 200 locations in 2026.
Overall, FIVE's outlook remains positive for the next 1-3 years, but it faces risks that could impact its trajectory. Not investment advice.