Five Below (FIVE)

Q: What's priced into Five Below (FIVE) stock?

The valuation is expensive versus peers, with a sizeable premium, and the expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations are demanding. The priced-in assessment is tagged as justified, with low fragility, so the evidence does not point to a clear mismatch between valuation and the current business setup.

Q: What does the Five Below (FIVE) outlook hinge on?

Over the multi-year view, the thesis hinges on continued execution of store expansion and the raised revenue and EPS outlook. Near term, sector momentum may help if major retail bellwethers keep beating and raising guidance, while weaker results from those companies could remove that support.

NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-10-23

$223.24-1.16%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Five Below’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

11.06 → 11.07 EPS · FY ending Jan 31, 2028 · 14 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 13 to 14; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q3
Revenue	$1.21B–$1.23B	1.22B
EPS	—	1.125
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$5.63B–$5.71B	5.71B
EPS	—	10.249
Capital expenditure	$250M–$260M	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	6.25B
EPS	—	11.073

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
EPS near $8.82 in 2026	A primary condition in Five Below's published investment case. The stated target is ~$8.82.	Under Pressure	EPS falls below $7.5 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $3.99 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$8.82. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Sep 3, 20263.99 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Aug 1, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 0f844744-8f1d-44e9-8594-8b3b43f858d0. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Stable leadership and strategic direction	A supporting condition in Five Below's published investment case. The stated target is Maintain stable management and board.	Intact	Significant management turnover or strategic missteps	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue reaches about $5.44 billion in 2026	A primary condition in Five Below's published investment case. The stated target is ~$5.44B.	Under Pressure	Revenue falls below $5.0 billion in FY26	Revenue: $1.261B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$5.44B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Sep 3, 20261,261,493,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Aug 1, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 0f844744-8f1d-44e9-8594-8b3b43f858d0. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Expand store count by 200 in 2026	A primary condition in Five Below's published investment case. The stated target is Expand store count by 200.	Intact	Store count expansion falls short of 150 new stores in 2026	Target 200 stores vs Trip <150; no concrete 2026 count reported News confirms expansion strategy but lacks specific 2026 store count metrics to evaluate progress against the 200-store target. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$11.07

$9.73 → $11.07 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$6.25B

$6.02B → $6.25B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$9.73	$6,022,060,551	13 / 18
2026-07-25	$9.73	$6,022,060,551	13 / 18
2026-07-26	$9.73	$6,022,060,551	13 / 18
2026-07-27	$9.73	$6,022,060,551	13 / 18
2026-07-28	$9.73	$6,022,060,551	13 / 18
2026-07-29	$9.73	$6,022,060,551	13 / 18
2026-07-30	$9.75	$6,013,311,548	13 / 18
2026-07-31	$9.75	$6,013,311,548	13 / 18
2026-08-01	$9.75	$6,013,311,548	13 / 18
2026-08-02	$9.75	$6,013,311,548	13 / 18
2026-08-03	$9.75	$6,013,311,548	13 / 18
2026-08-04	$9.75	$6,013,311,548	13 / 18
2026-08-05	$9.75	$6,013,311,548	13 / 18
2026-08-06	$9.75	$6,013,311,548	13 / 18
2026-08-07	$9.75	$6,013,311,548	13 / 18
2026-08-08	$9.75	$6,013,311,548	13 / 18
2026-08-09	$9.75	$6,013,311,548	13 / 18
2026-08-10	$9.75	$6,013,311,548	13 / 18
2026-08-11	$9.75	$6,013,311,548	13 / 18
2026-08-12	$9.77	$6,019,743,640	24 / 23
2026-08-13	$9.77	$6,019,743,640	24 / 23
2026-08-14	$9.75	$6,013,311,548	13 / 18
2026-08-15	$9.75	$6,013,311,548	13 / 18
2026-08-16	$9.75	$6,013,311,548	13 / 18
2026-08-17	$9.75	$6,013,311,548	13 / 18
2026-08-18	$9.75	$6,013,311,548	13 / 18
2026-08-19	$9.75	$6,013,311,548	13 / 18
2026-08-20	$9.90	$6,036,113,668	13 / 18
2026-08-21	$9.89	$6,036,113,668	13 / 18
2026-08-22	$9.89	$6,036,113,668	13 / 18
2026-08-23	$9.92	$6,042,522,759	13 / 18
2026-08-24	$9.92	$6,042,522,759	13 / 18
2026-08-25	$9.92	$6,042,522,759	13 / 18
2026-08-26	$9.95	$6,049,569,944	13 / 18
2026-08-27	$9.95	$6,049,569,944	13 / 18
2026-08-28	$9.95	$6,049,569,944	13 / 18
2026-08-29	$9.96	$6,053,215,398	13 / 18
2026-08-30	$9.96	$6,053,215,398	13 / 18
2026-08-31	$9.96	$6,053,215,398	13 / 18
2026-09-01	$9.96	$6,053,215,398	13 / 18
2026-09-02	$9.98	$6,056,603,389	13 / 18
2026-09-03	$10.28	$6,101,723,146	13 / 18
2026-09-04	$11.06	$6,238,970,791	14 / 18
2026-09-05	$11.06	$6,238,970,791	14 / 18
2026-09-06	$11.06	$6,238,970,791	14 / 18
2026-09-07	$11.06	$6,238,970,791	14 / 18
2026-09-08	$11.06	$6,238,970,791	14 / 18
2026-09-09	$11.06	$6,238,975,139	13 / 18
2026-09-10	$11.06	$6,238,975,139	13 / 18
2026-09-11	$11.06	$6,238,975,139	13 / 18
2026-09-12	$11.06	$6,238,975,139	13 / 18
2026-09-13	$11.06	$6,238,979,900	13 / 18
2026-09-14	$11.06	$6,238,979,900	13 / 18
2026-09-15	$11.06	$6,238,979,900	13 / 18
2026-09-16	$11.06	$6,238,979,900	13 / 18
2026-09-17	$11.06	$6,238,979,900	13 / 17
2026-09-18	$11.06	$6,238,997,291	13 / 17
2026-09-19	$11.06	$6,238,997,291	13 / 17
2026-09-20	$11.06	$6,238,997,291	13 / 17
2026-09-21	$11.06	$6,238,997,291	13 / 17
2026-09-22	$11.06	$6,238,997,291	13 / 17
2026-09-23	$11.06	$6,238,997,291	13 / 17
2026-09-24	$11.06	$6,238,997,291	13 / 17
2026-09-25	$11.06	$6,238,997,291	13 / 17
2026-09-26	$11.06	$6,238,997,291	13 / 17
2026-09-27	$11.06	$6,238,997,291	13 / 17
2026-09-28	$11.06	$6,238,997,291	13 / 17
2026-09-29	$11.06	$6,238,997,291	13 / 17
2026-09-30	$11.06	$6,238,997,291	13 / 17
2026-10-01	$11.06	$6,238,997,291	13 / 17
2026-10-02	$11.06	$6,238,997,291	13 / 17
2026-10-03	$11.06	$6,238,997,291	13 / 17
2026-10-04	$11.06	$6,238,984,248	13 / 17
2026-10-05	$11.06	$6,238,984,248	13 / 17
2026-10-06	$11.06	$6,238,984,248	13 / 17
2026-10-07	$11.06	$6,238,984,248	13 / 17
2026-10-08	$11.06	$6,238,984,248	13 / 17
2026-10-09	$11.06	$6,238,984,248	13 / 17
2026-10-10	$11.06	$6,238,984,248	13 / 17
2026-10-11	$11.06	$6,238,984,248	13 / 17
2026-10-12	$11.06	$6,238,984,248	13 / 17
2026-10-13	$11.06	$6,238,984,248	13 / 17
2026-10-14	$11.06	$6,238,984,248	14 / 18
2026-10-15	$11.06	$6,238,984,248	14 / 18
2026-10-16	$11.06	$6,238,984,248	14 / 18
2026-10-17	$11.06	$6,238,984,248	14 / 18
2026-10-18	$11.06	$6,238,984,248	14 / 18
2026-10-19	$11.06	$6,238,984,248	14 / 18
2026-10-20	$11.06	$6,238,984,248	14 / 18
2026-10-21	$11.06	$6,238,984,248	14 / 18
2026-10-22	$11.06	$6,238,984,248	14 / 18
2026-10-23	$11.07	$6,245,776,571	14 / 18
2026-10-24	$11.07	$6,245,776,571	14 / 18

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	16	9
2026-06-01	16	10
2026-07-01	17	10
2026-08-01	18	8
2026-09-01	17	8
2026-10-01	17	9

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 17 Buy / Strong Buy · 9 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Evercore ISISep 29 · prior Sep 3

$260.00 → $250.00-3.8%

Goldman SachsSep 25

$306.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$168.30$336.60

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

EPS near $8.82 in 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Stable leadership and strategic directionQualitative condition
Revenue reaches about $5.44 billion in 2026Published status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Dec 2, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.4%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-28.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Five Below outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

FIVE is a growing retailer with a store-expansion thesis, supported by robust earnings quality and strong recent financial performance. The long-term thesis is intact, but confidence has eased from high to medium and execution still needs to support the expansion story.

What's priced into Five Below

The valuation is expensive versus peers, with a sizeable premium, and the expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations are demanding. The priced-in assessment is tagged as justified, with low fragility, so the evidence does not point to a clear mismatch between valuation and the current business setup.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, management’s revenue and EPS guidance has been raised, and the company opened 101 stores in the first three quarters of 2026 toward its approximately 150-store goal for the fiscal year. However, FIVE missed its most recent quarter and is on a run of consecutive misses, while a guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful setback.

What Five Below hinges on

Over the multi-year view, the thesis hinges on continued execution of store expansion and the raised revenue and EPS outlook. Near term, sector momentum may help if major retail bellwethers keep beating and raising guidance, while weaker results from those companies could remove that support.

Bottom line

FIVE’s growth and recent operating strength keep the long-term thesis intact, but expensive peer-relative valuation and recent earnings misses make execution the key test over the next 1 to 3 years. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q3
Revenue	$1.21B–$1.23B	1.22B
EPS	—	1.125
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$5.63B–$5.71B	5.71B
EPS	—	10.249
Capital expenditure	$250M–$260M	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	6.25B
EPS	—	11.073

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$11.07

$9.73 → $11.07 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$6.25B

$6.02B → $6.25B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$9.73	$6,022,060,551	13 / 18
2026-07-25	$9.73	$6,022,060,551	13 / 18
2026-07-26	$9.73	$6,022,060,551	13 / 18
2026-07-27	$9.73	$6,022,060,551	13 / 18
2026-07-28	$9.73	$6,022,060,551	13 / 18
2026-07-29	$9.73	$6,022,060,551	13 / 18
2026-07-30	$9.75	$6,013,311,548	13 / 18
2026-07-31	$9.75	$6,013,311,548	13 / 18
2026-08-01	$9.75	$6,013,311,548	13 / 18
2026-08-02	$9.75	$6,013,311,548	13 / 18
2026-08-03	$9.75	$6,013,311,548	13 / 18
2026-08-04	$9.75	$6,013,311,548	13 / 18
2026-08-05	$9.75	$6,013,311,548	13 / 18
2026-08-06	$9.75	$6,013,311,548	13 / 18
2026-08-07	$9.75	$6,013,311,548	13 / 18
2026-08-08	$9.75	$6,013,311,548	13 / 18
2026-08-09	$9.75	$6,013,311,548	13 / 18
2026-08-10	$9.75	$6,013,311,548	13 / 18
2026-08-11	$9.75	$6,013,311,548	13 / 18
2026-08-12	$9.77	$6,019,743,640	24 / 23
2026-08-13	$9.77	$6,019,743,640	24 / 23
2026-08-14	$9.75	$6,013,311,548	13 / 18
2026-08-15	$9.75	$6,013,311,548	13 / 18
2026-08-16	$9.75	$6,013,311,548	13 / 18
2026-08-17	$9.75	$6,013,311,548	13 / 18
2026-08-18	$9.75	$6,013,311,548	13 / 18
2026-08-19	$9.75	$6,013,311,548	13 / 18
2026-08-20	$9.90	$6,036,113,668	13 / 18
2026-08-21	$9.89	$6,036,113,668	13 / 18
2026-08-22	$9.89	$6,036,113,668	13 / 18
2026-08-23	$9.92	$6,042,522,759	13 / 18
2026-08-24	$9.92	$6,042,522,759	13 / 18
2026-08-25	$9.92	$6,042,522,759	13 / 18
2026-08-26	$9.95	$6,049,569,944	13 / 18
2026-08-27	$9.95	$6,049,569,944	13 / 18
2026-08-28	$9.95	$6,049,569,944	13 / 18
2026-08-29	$9.96	$6,053,215,398	13 / 18
2026-08-30	$9.96	$6,053,215,398	13 / 18
2026-08-31	$9.96	$6,053,215,398	13 / 18
2026-09-01	$9.96	$6,053,215,398	13 / 18
2026-09-02	$9.98	$6,056,603,389	13 / 18
2026-09-03	$10.28	$6,101,723,146	13 / 18
2026-09-04	$11.06	$6,238,970,791	14 / 18
2026-09-05	$11.06	$6,238,970,791	14 / 18
2026-09-06	$11.06	$6,238,970,791	14 / 18
2026-09-07	$11.06	$6,238,970,791	14 / 18
2026-09-08	$11.06	$6,238,970,791	14 / 18
2026-09-09	$11.06	$6,238,975,139	13 / 18
2026-09-10	$11.06	$6,238,975,139	13 / 18
2026-09-11	$11.06	$6,238,975,139	13 / 18
2026-09-12	$11.06	$6,238,975,139	13 / 18
2026-09-13	$11.06	$6,238,979,900	13 / 18
2026-09-14	$11.06	$6,238,979,900	13 / 18
2026-09-15	$11.06	$6,238,979,900	13 / 18
2026-09-16	$11.06	$6,238,979,900	13 / 18
2026-09-17	$11.06	$6,238,979,900	13 / 17
2026-09-18	$11.06	$6,238,997,291	13 / 17
2026-09-19	$11.06	$6,238,997,291	13 / 17
2026-09-20	$11.06	$6,238,997,291	13 / 17
2026-09-21	$11.06	$6,238,997,291	13 / 17
2026-09-22	$11.06	$6,238,997,291	13 / 17
2026-09-23	$11.06	$6,238,997,291	13 / 17
2026-09-24	$11.06	$6,238,997,291	13 / 17
2026-09-25	$11.06	$6,238,997,291	13 / 17
2026-09-26	$11.06	$6,238,997,291	13 / 17
2026-09-27	$11.06	$6,238,997,291	13 / 17
2026-09-28	$11.06	$6,238,997,291	13 / 17
2026-09-29	$11.06	$6,238,997,291	13 / 17
2026-09-30	$11.06	$6,238,997,291	13 / 17
2026-10-01	$11.06	$6,238,997,291	13 / 17
2026-10-02	$11.06	$6,238,997,291	13 / 17
2026-10-03	$11.06	$6,238,997,291	13 / 17
2026-10-04	$11.06	$6,238,984,248	13 / 17
2026-10-05	$11.06	$6,238,984,248	13 / 17
2026-10-06	$11.06	$6,238,984,248	13 / 17
2026-10-07	$11.06	$6,238,984,248	13 / 17
2026-10-08	$11.06	$6,238,984,248	13 / 17
2026-10-09	$11.06	$6,238,984,248	13 / 17
2026-10-10	$11.06	$6,238,984,248	13 / 17
2026-10-11	$11.06	$6,238,984,248	13 / 17
2026-10-12	$11.06	$6,238,984,248	13 / 17
2026-10-13	$11.06	$6,238,984,248	13 / 17
2026-10-14	$11.06	$6,238,984,248	14 / 18
2026-10-15	$11.06	$6,238,984,248	14 / 18
2026-10-16	$11.06	$6,238,984,248	14 / 18
2026-10-17	$11.06	$6,238,984,248	14 / 18
2026-10-18	$11.06	$6,238,984,248	14 / 18
2026-10-19	$11.06	$6,238,984,248	14 / 18
2026-10-20	$11.06	$6,238,984,248	14 / 18
2026-10-21	$11.06	$6,238,984,248	14 / 18
2026-10-22	$11.06	$6,238,984,248	14 / 18
2026-10-23	$11.07	$6,245,776,571	14 / 18
2026-10-24	$11.07	$6,245,776,571	14 / 18

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings