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National Vision Holdings (EYE)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$17.96-3.49%
Close 2026-06-15 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, and it has a capital-friendly approach. However, risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with performance compared to sector peers being typical. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair, quality intact. If EYE cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Consumer Discretionary
- Industry
- Specialty Retail
- Market cap
- $1.49B
- Employees
- 13,238
- IPO date
- 2017-09-29
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $17.96. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfair
$18.54consensus
Range $16.76 – $21.42
vs price: -5% below
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$29.93consensus
Range $26.46 – $45.14
vs price: -41% below
Method agreement — · 5 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Durable premiummedium confidence
At $18 the market pays 20× p/e — above the 15× p/e peer median but in line with its own 20× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $19 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Analysts: $22–$40. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
19.7x
peer 15.4x · own history 19.8x
Premium
1.3x peer
1.0x its own history
Growth the price needs
-4%
our forecast 11%
Our fair value
$18.66
range $16.81 – $21.59
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fairfair — quality intact12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 4% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 11%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated strong grew net income 70% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
100th pctl · Consumer Discretionary
Earnings quality
robustOver the trailing year it converted 3.77x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated robust grew net income 65% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=2427).
83rd pctl · Consumer Discretionary
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
BearishEPS revised -11.5% / 30d, n=12for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.21 → $0.18 (-11.5% / 30d). 1 raised, 9 cut, 12 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 75% of analysts rate Buy.
Material events
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: consumer discretionary is in declining, with may be transitioning (~0.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- weak
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$234.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$482.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,759.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- DownsideHigh confidenceMonthsactive 4d
Watch for operating income margin in Q2 below 10%
Why it matters: If it drops below this level, it raises worries about costs and profits.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q2 operating income margin was less than 10%.
Disproves:Q2 operating income margin was more than 12%.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for EYE yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for June retail sales growth to turn positive
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like WSM, ULTA, and DKS keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Consumer Discretionary sector momentum should keep lifting EYE and other Consumer Discretionary names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If EYE raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-06-03), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If EYE cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-06-03), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like WSM, ULTA, and DKS start missing or guiding lower, the Consumer Discretionary tailwind helping EYE and other Consumer Discretionary names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits EYE and other Consumer Discretionary names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-0314d agoItem 7.01
Regulation FD Disclosure. Confirming Full Year 2026 Guidance and Providing Q2 Update In connection with participation in upcoming investor meetings and conferences, National Vision Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) is confirming its guidance. As previously announced, the Company will be presenting at the William Blair 46 th Annual Growth Stock Conference on June 3, 2026. At the conference, the Company will reaffirm its fiscal 2026 outlook as provided in its press release issued on May 13, 2026,…
Capital allocationpositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+1.4 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.