Reading DKS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track DKS free→Reading DKS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track DKS free→NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and management's recent track record has been steady. Earnings quality is neutral, and risk is moderate, while the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, DKS is typical in performance. Peer multiples imply a price about 12% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, priced roughly in line with peer multiples. This analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $225.92. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $220 DKS trades at 16× p/e, in line with its 15× p/e peer median. Our $202 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Analysts: $210–$300. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 9% near-term growth, below our forecast of about 34%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated strong grew net income 70% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.81x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=3229).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $3.90 → $3.77 (-3.4% / 30d). 4 raised, 13 cut, 22 covering analysts.
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 9 maintained. 58% of analysts rate Buy.
5 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 19.0% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$151.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$321.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,937.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Strong sales growth shows the company can attract customers and make more money.
Confirms:Q2 comparable sales growth for DICK'S Business exceeds 4.0%.
Disproves:Q2 comparable sales growth for DICK'S Business falls below 2.5%.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Advances: Increase comparable sales growth
Expansion supports comparable sales growth objective.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION On May 27, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing its results for the first fiscal quarter ended May 2, 2026 and certain other information that is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$210.00 – $300.00 (median $267.00) · 8 analysts · as of 2026-05-28
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Consumer Discretionary (broad).
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
DKS Dick's Sporting Goods | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 37 of 100 | full | moderate |
BURL Burlington Stores | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
SN SharkNinja | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 55 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
H Hyatt | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 24 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
BWA BorgWarner | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | full | moderate |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated stable grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=483).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on raising the low end of full year 2026 guidance for comparable sales growth.
Continue to uphold the operating income guidance for fiscal year 2026.
Focus on managing capital expenditures with a target of approximately $1.6 billion for 2026.
Why it matters: A steady or higher dividend shows good finances and care for shareholders.
Confirms:The Board declares a quarterly dividend of at least $1.25 per share.
Disproves:The Board suspends or reduces the quarterly dividend.
Why it matters: Steady guidance shows good cost control and profit. It gives investors confidence in finances.
Confirms:Operating income guidance stays the same or goes up in the next update.
Disproves:Operating income guidance goes down in the next update.
Why it matters: This would signal a slowdown in growth for DICK'S, impacting investor confidence.
Confirms:Q2 sales growth was less than 2.5%.
Disproves:Q2 sales growth was more than 4.0%.
Why it matters: Key economic reports can influence consumer spending and retail performance. They provide context for Dick's sales.
Confirms one read:Consumer Price Index shows inflation below 2% in June.
Confirms the other:Consumer Price Index shows inflation above 4% in June.
Why it matters: The next earnings report will show how the company is doing. It can change how investors feel.
Confirms one read:Announcement of the next earnings report date.
Confirms the other:No announcement of the next earnings report date before the end of June.
Why it matters: Expanding the Fast Break initiative shows Foot Locker's growth potential and success.
Confirms:Foot Locker's Fast Break initiative scales to 250 stores by back-to-school.
Disproves:Foot Locker fails to reach 250 stores for the Fast Break initiative by back-to-school.
Why it matters: If revenue growth falls below the median, it could signal a shift in the growth phase for the sector. This would impact how investors view Dick's Sporting Goods.
Confirms:Revenue growth reported below the median for the sector in the next quarter.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains above the median for the sector in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Positive growth shows the Fast Break plan and Foot Locker deal are working.
Confirms:Foot Locker's sales growth was more than 1.5%.
Disproves:Foot Locker's sales growth was less than 1.0%.
Why it matters: Managing capital spending is crucial for future growth. It impacts cash flow and investment potential.
Confirms one read:Capital spending drops by more than 10% from last year.
Confirms the other:Capital spending rises by more than 10% from last year.
OTHER EVENTS On May 26, 2026, the Board of Directors of Dick's Sporting Goods, Inc. authorized and declared a quarterly dividend in the amount of $1.25 per share on the Company's Common Stock and Class B Common Stock. The dividend is payable in cash on June 26, 2026 to stockholders of record at the close of business on June 12, 2026.
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION On March 12, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing its results for the fourth fiscal quarter ended January 31, 2026 and certain other information that is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K.
OTHER EVENTS On March 11, 2026, the Board of Directors of Dick's Sporting Goods, Inc. authorized and declared a quarterly dividend in the amount of $1.25 per share on the Company's Common Stock and Class B Common Stock. The dividend is payable in cash on April 10, 2026 to stockholders of record at the close of business on March 27, 2026.