Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS)

NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-10-23

$144.67-2.76%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Dick's Sporting Goods’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-1.5%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

13.28 → 13.08 EPS · FY ending Jan 31, 2028 · 10 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q3
Revenue	—	5.07B
EPS	—	1.424
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$21.9B–$22.2B	22.07B
EPS	$13.5–$14.5non-GAAP $13.27–$14.27	11.452
Operating income	$1.71B–$1.83Bnon-GAAP $1.69B–$1.81B	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	22.62B
EPS	—	13.077

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Capital expenditures managed near $1.6B in FY26	Capital spending is managed around $1.6B, supporting expansion.	Improving	Capital expenditures exceed $1.7 billion or fall below $1.4 billion in FY26	Capital expenditures: $382.726M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$1.6 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Sep 3, 2026382,726,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Aug 1, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Comparable sales growth improves with new loyalty and partnerships	New loyalty programs and Foot Locker deal boost sales growth.	Intact	Comparable sales growth turns negative next year	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. DICK'S Business comparable sales grew from 3.1% in 2026-Q1 to 6.0% in 2026-Q2 and 4.9% in 2026-Q3, showing strong growth and market share gains. Foot Locker's proforma comps showed volatility, declining 3.4% in 2026-Q1, improving to 0.6% in 2026-Q2, then declining 3.6% in 2026-Q3, reflecting challenging footwear market conditions. The trajectory is mixed with DICK'S delivering growth while Foot Locker faces headwinds. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Operating income near $1.7B to $1.8B in FY26	Profit margins remain solid with operating income near $1.7B to $1.8B.	Under Pressure	Operating income falls below $1.69 billion in FY26	Operating margin: 7.89% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.69 billion. Target and observation currencies differ. Source published Sep 3, 20267.889218 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Aug 1, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 5d918d88-1e9a-4796-83ec-900e03f014c0. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue grows to at least $22.1B in FY26	A primary condition in Dick's Sporting Goods's published investment case. The stated target is >= $22.1 billion.	Intact	Revenue falls below $22.1 billion in FY26	Revenue: $5.587B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $22.1 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Sep 3, 20265,586,815,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Aug 1, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 5d918d88-1e9a-4796-83ec-900e03f014c0. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. DICK'S Business comparable sales grew from 3.1% in 2026-Q1 to 6.0% in 2026-Q2 and 4.9% in 2026-Q3, showing strong growth and market share gains. Foot Locker's proforma comps showed volatility, declining 3.4% in 2026-Q1, improving to 0.6% in 2026-Q2, then declining 3.6% in 2026-Q3, reflecting challenging footwear market conditions. The trajectory is mixed with DICK'S delivering growth while Foot Locker faces headwinds. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$13.08

$16.40 → $13.08 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$22.62B

$23.11B → $22.62B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$16.40	$23,114,720,514	15 / 17
2026-07-25	$16.40	$23,114,720,514	15 / 17
2026-07-26	$16.40	$23,114,720,514	15 / 17
2026-07-27	$16.40	$23,114,720,514	15 / 17
2026-07-28	$16.40	$23,114,720,514	15 / 17
2026-07-29	$16.40	$23,114,720,514	15 / 17
2026-07-30	$16.40	$23,114,720,514	15 / 17
2026-07-31	$16.40	$23,114,720,514	15 / 17
2026-08-01	$16.40	$23,114,720,514	15 / 17
2026-08-02	$16.41	$23,092,618,840	15 / 17
2026-08-03	$16.41	$23,092,618,840	15 / 17
2026-08-04	$16.41	$23,092,618,840	15 / 17
2026-08-05	$16.41	$23,092,618,840	15 / 17
2026-08-06	$16.41	$23,092,618,840	15 / 17
2026-08-07	$16.41	$23,092,618,840	15 / 17
2026-08-08	$16.41	$23,092,618,840	15 / 17
2026-08-09	$16.41	$23,092,618,840	15 / 17
2026-08-10	$16.41	$23,092,618,840	15 / 17
2026-08-11	$16.41	$23,092,618,840	15 / 17
2026-08-12	$16.34	$23,182,490,490	25 / 22
2026-08-13	$16.41	$23,092,618,840	15 / 17
2026-08-14	$16.41	$23,092,618,840	15 / 17
2026-08-15	$16.41	$23,092,618,840	15 / 17
2026-08-16	$16.41	$23,092,618,840	15 / 17
2026-08-17	$16.41	$23,092,618,840	15 / 17
2026-08-18	$16.41	$23,092,618,840	15 / 17
2026-08-19	$16.41	$23,092,618,840	15 / 17
2026-08-20	$16.40	$23,102,450,880	15 / 17
2026-08-21	$16.39	$23,098,625,880	15 / 17
2026-08-22	$16.39	$23,122,685,409	15 / 17
2026-08-23	$16.39	$23,122,685,409	15 / 17
2026-08-24	$16.39	$23,122,685,409	15 / 17
2026-08-25	$16.36	$23,117,318,852	16 / 17
2026-08-26	$14.43	$22,895,091,085	16 / 17
2026-08-27	$14.43	$22,895,091,085	16 / 17
2026-08-28	$14.43	$22,895,091,085	16 / 17
2026-08-29	$13.56	$22,666,858,641	15 / 17
2026-08-30	$13.56	$22,666,858,641	15 / 17
2026-08-31	$13.56	$22,666,858,641	15 / 17
2026-09-01	$13.47	$22,666,854,096	15 / 17
2026-09-02	$13.47	$22,666,854,096	15 / 17
2026-09-03	$13.47	$22,666,854,096	15 / 17
2026-09-04	$13.47	$22,666,854,096	15 / 17
2026-09-05	$13.47	$22,665,946,539	15 / 17
2026-09-06	$13.47	$22,665,946,539	15 / 17
2026-09-07	$13.47	$22,665,946,539	15 / 17
2026-09-08	$13.47	$22,665,946,539	15 / 17
2026-09-09	$13.47	$22,665,946,539	15 / 17
2026-09-10	$13.38	$22,648,426,915	10 / 17
2026-09-11	$13.38	$22,648,426,915	10 / 18
2026-09-12	$13.38	$22,648,426,915	10 / 18
2026-09-13	$13.38	$22,648,426,915	10 / 18
2026-09-14	$13.38	$22,648,426,915	10 / 18
2026-09-15	$13.38	$22,648,426,915	10 / 18
2026-09-16	$13.38	$22,648,426,915	10 / 18
2026-09-17	$13.38	$22,648,426,915	10 / 18
2026-09-18	$13.38	$22,648,426,915	10 / 18
2026-09-19	$13.28	$22,628,168,560	10 / 18
2026-09-20	$13.28	$22,628,168,560	10 / 18
2026-09-21	$13.28	$22,628,168,560	10 / 18
2026-09-22	$13.28	$22,628,168,560	10 / 18
2026-09-23	$13.28	$22,628,168,560	10 / 18
2026-09-24	$13.28	$22,628,168,560	10 / 18
2026-09-25	$13.28	$22,628,168,560	10 / 18
2026-09-26	$13.28	$22,628,168,560	10 / 18
2026-09-27	$13.28	$22,628,168,560	10 / 18
2026-09-28	$13.28	$22,628,168,560	10 / 18
2026-09-29	$13.28	$22,628,168,560	10 / 18
2026-09-30	$13.28	$22,628,168,560	10 / 18
2026-10-01	$13.26	$22,628,168,560	10 / 18
2026-10-02	$13.21	$22,619,281,604	10 / 18
2026-10-03	$13.21	$22,619,281,604	10 / 18
2026-10-04	$13.21	$22,619,281,604	10 / 18
2026-10-05	$13.21	$22,619,281,604	10 / 18
2026-10-06	$13.21	$22,619,281,604	10 / 18
2026-10-07	$13.21	$22,621,964,212	10 / 18
2026-10-08	$13.21	$22,621,964,212	10 / 18
2026-10-09	$13.21	$22,621,964,212	10 / 18
2026-10-10	$13.11	$22,600,364,212	10 / 18
2026-10-11	$13.11	$22,600,364,212	10 / 18
2026-10-12	$13.11	$22,600,364,212	10 / 18
2026-10-13	$13.11	$22,600,364,212	10 / 18
2026-10-14	$13.11	$22,600,364,212	10 / 18
2026-10-15	$13.11	$22,600,364,212	10 / 18
2026-10-16	$13.11	$22,600,364,212	10 / 18
2026-10-17	$13.11	$22,600,364,212	10 / 18
2026-10-18	$13.11	$22,600,364,212	10 / 18
2026-10-19	$13.11	$22,600,364,212	10 / 18
2026-10-20	$13.11	$22,600,364,212	10 / 18
2026-10-21	$13.06	$22,603,811,218	10 / 17
2026-10-22	$13.06	$22,603,811,218	10 / 17
2026-10-23	$13.07	$22,612,384,643	10 / 18
2026-10-24	$13.08	$22,616,951,950	10 / 18

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	15	11	2
2026-06-01	15	9	2
2026-07-01	15	10	2
2026-08-01	17	12	1
2026-09-01	14	12	2
2026-10-01	13	12	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 13 Buy / Strong Buy · 12 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Wolfe ResearchOct 21

$181.00New observation · no comparable prior

Truist FinancialOct 1 · prior Aug 26

$135.00 → $128.00-5.2%

$0$99.55$199.10

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Capital expenditures managed near $1.6B in FY26Capital expenditures: $382.726M
Comparable sales growth improves with new loyalty and partnershipsQualitative condition
Operating income near $1.7B to $1.8B in FY26Published status: Under Pressure
Revenue grows to at least $22.1B in FY26Revenue: $5.587B

Next proof point

Nov 24, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-49.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Dick's Sporting Goods outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a retail business with strong recent results in DICK’S core business and a more uncertain outlook after its acquisition of Foot Locker. The long-term thesis is intact, but management execution is volatile and the evidence is mixed.

What's priced into Dick's Sporting Goods

The evidence describes DKS as cheap versus peers, while also showing a sizable premium versus peers in its valuation measure, so the relative valuation picture is mixed. The expectations gap is negative, and the priced-in signal is tagged as justified with low fragility, suggesting the market is not assuming a fragile recovery.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, DICK’S comparable sales have remained positive, but consolidated operating income guidance was lowered and Foot Locker is expected to incur segment losses. Capital spending is tracking its stated plan, while a recent earnings miss and a run of misses remain risks despite improving company momentum.

What Dick's Sporting Goods hinges on

Over the next few quarters, a reversal in guidance would be evidence that recent pressure is easing; further downward revisions would weaken the thesis. Sector conditions also matter, with major consumer discretionary companies’ results and guidance serving as signals for the broader backdrop.