Reading CWST? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CWST free→Reading CWST? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CWST free→NASDAQIndustrialsWaste ManagementSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but the capital stance is capital unfriendly, and risk is elevated. The sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact CWST's performance compared to sector peers, where it is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 141% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. This analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $88.10. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $88 the market pays 69× p/e — above the 23× p/e peer median but in line with its own 100× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $36 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts: $101–$115. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 142% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 16%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
Over the trailing year it converted 47.89x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1113).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.30 → $0.30 (+0.0% / 30d). 1 raised, 1 cut, 10 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 73% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$155.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$317.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,637.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If guidance goes up, it shows strong demand and good operations. If it goes down, there may be market challenges.
Confirms one read:Management raises revenue guidance for 2026 beyond the current range of $2.060 billion to $2.080 billion.
Confirms the other:Management cuts revenue guidance for 2026. It is now below the current range.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CWST yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
of this Form 8-K (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the "Securities Act"), or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$101.00 – $115.00 (median $102.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-05-04
Looks more expensive than peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Environmental & Facilities Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CWST Casella Waste Systems, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 49 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
WM Waste Management | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | fair | moderate |
RSG Republic Services | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | fair | moderate |
ROL Rollins, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 65 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
VLTO Veralto | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 100 of 100 | fair | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Casella Waste Systems aims to increase its revenue guidance for fiscal year 2026.
Casella Waste Systems is focused on the remarketing of $15 million in revenue bonds.
Casella Waste Systems entered into a Master Lease Agreement for leasing or financing motor vehicles and other equipment.
Focus on improving operating income as part of ongoing operational priorities.
Why it matters: Growth in operating income shows good cost management. This is important for future profits.
Confirms:Operating income for Q2 is over $4.86M, showing growth.
Disproves:Operating income falls or stays under $4.86M.
Why it matters: An increase in revenue guidance shows strong growth potential. It can boost investor confidence.
Confirms:Management says revenue for 2026 will be more than current estimates.
Disproves:Management maintains or lowers the revenue guidance for 2026.
Why it matters: Higher operating income shows better cost control and more profit.
Confirms:Operating income is up more than 5% compared to last year.
Disproves:Operating income falls or grows by less than 5% compared to last year.
Why it matters: If remarketing works, Casella can manage money better and lower interest costs. If it fails, there may be market problems.
Confirms:The bonds are sold again at the expected interest rate of 4.300%.
Disproves:The remarketing fails or the interest rate exceeds 4.300%.
Why it matters: Higher operating income shows better cost control and pricing power. A drop could mean operational problems.
Confirms:Operating income is higher than the Q1 2026 results.
Disproves:Operating income is lower than the Q1 2026 results.
Other Events. On May 11, 2026, Casella Waste Systems, Inc. (the “Company”) announced that it has commenced the remarketing of $15.0 million aggregate principal amount of New York State Environmental Facilities Corporation (the “Issuer”) Solid Waste Disposal Revenue Bonds (Casella Waste Systems, Inc. Project) Series 2014R-2 (collectively, the “Bonds”). The Bonds were issued pursuant to an Indenture dated as of December 1, 2014 (the “Indenture”) and drawn down on June 2, 2016. The Bonds have a…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On April 20, 2026, Casella Waste Systems, Inc. (“Casella”), and certain of its subsidiaries (each a “Subsidiary,” and collectively, the “Subsidiaries,” and together with Casella, the “Co-Lessees”), entered into a Master Lease Agreement No. 68105 and an Addendum to Master Lease Agreement No. 68105 (Co-Lessee) (collectively, the “Master Lease”) with Huntington National Bank (“HNB”) for the purpose of leasing or financing motor vehicles and other equip…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The discussion of the Master Lease set forth under
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On March 6, 2026, Sean Steves notified Casella Waste Systems, Inc. (the “Company”) of his decision to resign from his position as the Company’s Senior Vice President and Chief Operating Officer of Solid Waste Operations to pursue other opportunities outside of the waste and recycling industry. His resignation will be effective on the mutually agree…