Reading ARQ? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ARQ free→Reading ARQ? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
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NASDAQIndustrialsPollution & Treatment ControlsSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality cannot be assessed as the company was unprofitable over the past year, and risk is high. Peer multiples imply a price about 40% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples, but recent financials are weak or earnings quality is fragile. If ARQ cuts guidance on the next call, that would be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $2.72. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $2.72 ARQ trades at 1× p/s, below its 2× p/s peer median. Our $4.45 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 39% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 4%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
No fragility gates fired.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=3678).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.06x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.03 → $-0.03 (+0.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$200.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$567.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $7,878.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is crucial for hitting the full-year target of $120-$125M. A strong Q2 could signal progress.
Confirms:Q2 revenue is $30M or more. This shows strong growth.
Disproves:Q2 revenue is below $30M. This shows weak growth for the year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ARQ yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Appointment of Chief Financial Officer On May 26, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Arq, Inc. (the “Company”) appointed Shimon Steinmetz, 48, as the Company’s Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, effective as of his commencement date which will be on or prior to July 27, 2026. Upon the effective date of his appointment,…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Environmental & Facilities Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ARQ Arq, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 46 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
WM Waste Management | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | fair | moderate |
RSG Republic Services | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | fair | moderate |
ROL Rollins, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 65 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
VLTO Veralto | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 100 of 100 | fair | moderate |
14 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Industrials names rated volatile grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=840).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management aims to achieve a revenue target of $120-$125 million for the fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue was $29.053M in 2026-Q1, indicating limited progress towards the $120-$125M annual target. Management's confidence in achieving the guidance remains, but current trajectory shows mixed results.
“We remain confident in reiterating our full year 2026 guidance of revenue between $120 - $125 million.”
“For fiscal year 2026, Arq expects revenue of $120-125 million.”
“We are targeting revenue of $120-$125 million for 2026.”
Management aims to achieve an Adjusted EBITDA target of $17-$20 million for the fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. No specific EBITDA figures provided for 2026-Q1, making it difficult to assess progress towards the $17-$20M target. The trajectory remains unclear without detailed quarterly EBITDA data.
“Adjusted EBITDA of $17 - $20 million for 2026 is expected.”
Why it matters: Hitting the Adjusted EBITDA target is important for financial health. It shows progress.
Confirms:Adjusted EBITDA is $15M or more for Q2. This shows a strong recovery.
Disproves:Adjusted EBITDA is below $15M. This shows ongoing financial problems.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On June 10, 2026, Arq, Inc. (the "Company") held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders (the "Annual Meeting"). At the Annual Meeting, the Company’s stockholders voted to approve the Arq, Inc. 2026 Omnibus Incentive Plan (the "2026 Plan") and authorized the issuance of up to 1,500,000 shares of common stock thereunder plus certain shares remaining…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 6, 2026, Arq, Inc. ("Arq" or the "Company") issued a press release related to the filing of Arq's Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarterly period ended March 31, 2026, and posted to its website an investor presentation related to Arq's financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. The information furnished pursuant to this Item 2.02, including th…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. As previously disclosed, effective March 4, 2026, Jeremy “Deke” Williamson ceased serving as the Chief Operating Officer and Jay Voncannon ceased serving as Chief Financial Officer of Arq, Inc. (the “Company”) but remained employed by the Company until April 18, 2026. In connection with the termination of their employment, Messrs. Williamson and Vo…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On April 15, 2026, Arq, Inc. (the "Company"), a Delaware corporation, entered into the Ninth Amendment to its Tax Asset Protection Plan (the "Ninth Amendment") between the Company and Computershare Trust Company, N.A. (the "Rights Agent") that amends the Company's Tax Asset Protection Plan dated May 5, 2017, as amended (the "TAPP") between the Company and the Rights Agent. The Ninth Amendment amends the definition of "Final Expiration Date" under th…
“We expect Adjusted EBITDA of $17-$20 million for 2026.”