GEO Group, Inc. (GEO)
NYSEIndustrialsSecurity & Protection ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-15
$31.26+1.33%
Close 2026-09-15 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsSecurity & Protection ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-15
Research Workspace
Put GEO beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Environmental & Facilities Services is in steady. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar under pressure — Improve operating income to sustain margin gains: Operating income not reported.
View ThesisRevenue growth is accelerating — up about 15% over the past year.
View GrowthMiddle-of-the-pack quality for its industry.
View QualityMiddle-of-the-pack management execution.
View ManagementExpectations look high — the market is pricing in about 22% growth a year, above the roughly 12% analysts expect, leaving little room for error.
View ValuationThis stock is volatile — it swings about 1% on a typical day and fell roughly 40% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskGEO's growth depends on successfully expanding revenue through new contracts and facilities. Recent earnings showed revenue growth of 15% year over year, with a significant beat in Q2. It trades at 27× P/E versus a peer median of 25×, indicating the price reflects modest growth expectations. If GEO cuts guidance on the next call, that could negatively impact the stock. Peer multiples imply a price about 21% below where it trades. The thesis is on watch due to pressure on operating income margins.
Trailing returns as of 2026-09-15. GEO is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 3 analysts currently covering GEO (as of Sep 2026).
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
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Compare GEO with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GEO Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 10 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-15. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Environmental & Facilities Services — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put GEO next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Advances: Pursue new growth opportunities and increase revenues
New ICE contract expected to boost revenue significantly.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-09-15. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Around the middle on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Advances: Pursue new growth opportunities and increase revenues
Contract expansions align with growth objectives and revenue increase.
Regulatory scrutiny could impact facility operations and contracts.
Advances: Increase revenue growth
Strong revenue guidance indicates positive growth trajectory.
Advances: Increase revenue growth
New facility indicates potential for increased revenue growth.
Threatens: Reactivate and activate idle facilities for new contracts
Activist pressure may hinder new contracts and growth.
Legal issues could impact reputation and operations.
Legal issues could impact operations and public perception.
