GEO Group, Inc. (GEO)
NYSEIndustrialsSecurity & Protection ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-30
$28.52-0.07%
Close 2026-10-30 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsSecurity & Protection ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-30
Research Workspace
Put GEO beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Environmental & Facilities Services is in steady. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar under pressure — Improve operating income to sustain margin gains: Operating income: $101.7M.
View ThesisRevenue growth is accelerating — up about 15% over the past year.
View GrowthMiddle-of-the-pack quality for its industry.
View QualityMiddle-of-the-pack management execution.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationThis stock is volatile — it swings about 2% on a typical day and fell roughly 29% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskGEO’s detention contracts and new facilities must sustain revenue growth to support its earnings case. Revenue growth slowed from 17% in Q1 FY2026 to 15% in Q2 FY2026, though both quarters beat. Q2 FY2026 non-GAAP earnings per share beat consensus. GEO trades at 25× P/E versus a 28× peer median. The price reflects less growth than our forecast. Operating income of $101.7 million puts the margin-improvement pillar under pressure. Our model puts the next-quarter miss probability near 22%. Peer multiples imply a price about 10% above where it trades; the thesis is on watch, and this read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-10-30. GEO is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 3 analysts currently covering GEO (as of Oct 2026).
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
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Compare GEO with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GEO Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 10 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-10-30. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Environmental & Facilities Services — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put GEO next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Advances: Reactivate idle facilities and secure new contracts
Contract extension secures continued facility operations and supports reactivating facilities through new or retained contracts.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-10-30. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Around the middle on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Advances: Improve operating income and adjusted EBITDA
Debt paydown improves financial stability and operating income.
Advances: Execute share repurchase program up to $500 million
Increased buyback capacity supports capital allocation objectives.
Advances: Pursue new growth opportunities and increase revenues
New contracts enhance revenue growth opportunities.
Threatens: Increase revenue growth
Concerns about growth sustainability could hinder revenue objectives.
Advances: Pursue new growth opportunities and increase revenues
New ICE contract expected to boost revenue significantly.
Advances: Pursue new growth opportunities and increase revenues
Contract expansions align with growth objectives and revenue increase.
Regulatory scrutiny could impact facility operations and contracts.