Reading GEO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track GEO free→Reading GEO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track GEO free→NYSEIndustrialsSecurity & Protection ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, indicating that reported profits are not well backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been neutral, and the company has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact future performance. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $28.61. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $29 GEO trades at 28× p/e, in line with its 23× p/e peer median. Our $28 fair value reflects that, medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 2% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 10%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated strong grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=3696).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.58x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated fragile grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.28 → $0.29 (+4.5% / 30d). 2 raised, 1 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 61.1% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$176.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$407.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,989.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding this guidance shows strong demand and growth momentum for GEO.
Confirms:Q2 2026 revenue reported at or above $715 million.
Disproves:Q2 2026 revenue reported below $715 million.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Advances: Increase revenue growth
Moody's upgrade supports revenue growth potential.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 6, 2026, The GEO Group, Inc. (“GEO” or the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026, updating its financial guidance for the full year ending December 31, 2026 and issuing its financial guidance for the second quarter ending June 30, 2026. The information furnished pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 o…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Environmental & Facilities Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
GEO GEO Group, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 79 of 100 | fair | elevated |
WM Waste Management | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 75 of 100 | fair | moderate |
RSG Republic Services | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | fair | moderate |
ROL Rollins, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 65 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
VLTO Veralto | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 99 of 100 | fair | moderate |
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1113).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing revenue growth through strategic initiatives.
Enhance operating income through cost management and efficiency.
Aim to enhance net income through strategic financial management.
Why it matters: This guidance will show if GEO can keep growing revenue as it aims to improve.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth guidance is above 6% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth guidance is below 3% year over year.
Why it matters: The result could greatly affect GEO's finances and legal issues.
Confirms:U.S. Supreme Court rules in favor of GEO, reducing potential liabilities.
Disproves:U.S. Supreme Court rules against GEO, increasing potential liabilities.
Why it matters: Changes in leadership can change financial goals. They can also affect how well the company does.
Confirms one read:Positive financial results were reported under the new CFO by Q3 2026.
Confirms the other:Negative financial results were reported under the new CFO by Q3 2026.
Why it matters: More share buybacks show that management believes in the company's worth.
Confirms:More share buybacks over $50 million are announced for Q2 2026.
Disproves:No share repurchases announced in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: New contracts can bring in more money. This helps GEO grow.
Confirms:New contracts worth over $100 million in yearly revenue are announced.
Disproves:No new contracts in Secure Services for the next quarter.
Why it matters: Better operating income means GEO is controlling costs and growing.
Confirms:Operating income rises by over 10% from Q1 results.
Disproves:Operating income falls or grows less than 5% from Q1 results.
Why it matters: Net income results will show if GEO is making more money as planned.
Confirms:Net income increases by more than 15% compared to Q1 results.
Disproves:Net income decreases or grows less than 5% compared to Q1 results.
Lawsuit could impact operational costs and income.
Lawsuit could affect public perception and operations.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Departure of Mark J. Suchinski as Chief Financial Officer On February 27, 2026, Mark J. Suchinski, the Company’s Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, notified The GEO Group, Inc. (“GEO” or the “Company”) of his decision to relocate out-of-state and leave his position effective March 31, 2026 (the “Separation Date”) to accept a positio…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On February 6, 2026, J. David Donahue, the Company’s Chief Executive Officer, provided notice to The GEO Group, Inc. (“GEO” or the “Company”) of his retirement effective February 28, 2026 (the “Separation Date”). Mr. Donahue and GEO entered into a Separation Agreement and General Release on February 9, 2026 (the “Separation Agreement”). Pursuant to…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 12, 2026, The GEO Group, Inc. (“GEO” or the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025, and issuing its financial guidance for the first quarter and full year 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information furnished pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deem…
Other Events. The following was announced today: The GEO Group, Inc. (“GEO”) has entered into a joint venture agreement with another contractor to provide management services for the State of Florida at the 1,310-bed North Florida Detention Facility in Baker County, Florida. SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized. THE GEO GROUP, INC. Octobe…