Reading ERII? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ERII free→Reading ERII? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
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NASDAQIndustrialsPollution & Treatment ControlsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
As of June 15, 2026, ERII shows a mixed profile with recent financial performance being steady, but management's track record has been volatile, and risk is elevated. Earnings quality is neutral, and the sector backdrop presents a headwind, with the company performing below typical compared to its peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 24% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. Key factors to watch include potential guidance cuts and sector trends, as these could significantly impact the stock's performance. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $8.58. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $8.76 ERII trades at 18× p/e, below its 23× p/e peer median. Our $12 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 24% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 2%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.41x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=4440).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.09 → $-0.04 (-140.4% / 30d). 1 raised, 2 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 25% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$187.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$351.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,627.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Signal changed from 'mixed' to 'cautious'.
Management fell by 8.9 points (from 46.0 to 37.1).
Valuation changed. It rose from "inexpensive" to "fair." Risk is elevated. The sector backdrop is a headwind.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Meeting the revenue target is crucial for the company's growth plans in 2026.
Confirms:Q2 revenue was at least $33 million. This shows strong growth.
Disproves:Q2 revenue is below $25 million. This shows big challenges in growth.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ERII yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
No upside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
No downside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Appointment of Interim President and Chief Executive Officer On May 28, 2026, Energy Recovery, Inc. (the “Company”) filed a Current Report on Form 8-K (the “Original Report”) to announce the appointment of Mr. Alex Buehler as the Company’s Interim President and Chief Executive Officer. At the time of the filing of the Original Report, Mr. Buehler’s…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Environmental & Facilities Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ERII Energy Recovery, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 18 of 100 | fair | elevated |
WM Waste Management | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | fair | moderate |
RSG Republic Services | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | fair | moderate |
ROL Rollins, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 65 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
VLTO Veralto | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 99 of 100 | fair | moderate |
7 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Industrials names rated volatile grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=840).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management has set a revenue growth target of at least $135 million for fiscal year 2026.
Energy Recovery, Inc. announced the appointment of Mr. Alex Buehler as Interim President and CEO.
Why it matters: Changes in the industrial sector could affect ERII's growth and market position.
Confirms:Sector growth is speeding up again. This helps ERII.
Disproves:Sector growth is slowing down. This hurts ERII's performance.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Departure of President and Chief Executive Officer On May 25, 2026, Mr. David Moon informed the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Energy Recovery, Inc. (the “Company”) of his intention to accelerate his previously announced retirement and resign from all positions within the Company, including as President, Chief Executive Officer and as a member…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On May 6, 2026, the Company announced that David Moon, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Company, has notified the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of his intention to retire following the appointment of his replacement. Mr. Moon will remain as President and Chief Executive Officer until a successor is appointed and has committed to supp…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 6, 2026, Energy Recovery, Inc. (the “Company”) issued an earnings press release announcing its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference in its entirety. The information in this report (including Exhibit 99.1) is being furnished pursuant to
Other Events On May 6, 2026 , the Company announced that the Board of the Company authorized the Company to repurchase up to $25.0 million of outstanding shares of its common stock, $0.001 par value per share, pursuant to a new share repurchase program (the “May 2026 Authorization”). Under the May 2026 Authorization, the Company may repurchase shares through open market trades, block trades and/or privately negotiated transactions, in compliance with applicable state and federal securities la…