Reading CLH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CLH free→Reading CLH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CLH free→NYSEIndustrialsWaste ManagementSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, while earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, and it has a capital-friendly approach. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact performance compared to sector peers, where it is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 44% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. This analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $290.69. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $291 the market pays 39× p/e — above the 24× p/e peer median but in line with its own 31× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $207 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts: $280–$350. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 45% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 1%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.20x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $2.69 → $2.67 (-0.9% / 30d). 7 raised, 2 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 73% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$108.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$202.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,945.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Getting the expected benefits will show the deal is smart. It will also help make more money.
Confirms:Clean Harbors says it gained at least $4 million in yearly benefits from Terra Nova in the first year.
Disproves:Benefits are less than $4 million in the first year. This shows there are problems with the merger.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Advances: Expand Environmental Services Segment
New regulations could boost Environmental Services segment.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On May 19, 2026, Alan S. McKim, serving in the capacities of Executive Chairman of the Board of Directors (the “Board”) and Chief Technology Officer, notified the Board of his intention to retire from the Board and his role as Chief Technology Officer, effective upon the Board’s appointment of a new Chairman. The appointment of an independent Chair…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$280.00 – $350.00 (median $310.00) · 11 analysts · as of 2026-05-14
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Environmental & Facilities Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CLH Clean Harbors | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 39 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
WM Waste Management | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 76 of 100 | fair | moderate |
RSG Republic Services | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | fair | moderate |
ROL Rollins, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 66 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
VLTO Veralto | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 99 of 100 | fair | moderate |
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Industrials names rated stable grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=792).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on raising Adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow through operational efficiencies and strategic initiatives.
Continue to grow the Environmental Services segment through increased demand and operational efficiencies.
Improve the profitability and market position of Safety-Kleen Sustainability Solutions through strategic initiatives.
Finalize the acquisition of Terra Nova Solutions to expand service offerings and market reach.
Continue to drive operating income growth through operational efficiencies.
Why it matters: Growth in Adjusted EBITDA shows how well the company is doing. It also shows market demand.
Confirms:Clean Harbors reports Q2 Adjusted EBITDA growth of 5% to 9% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 Adjusted EBITDA growth is under 5%. This may mean there are problems with operations.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 6, 2026, Clean Harbors, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing the Company’s results of operations for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of that press release is furnished with this report as Exhibit 99.1.
Other Events. On May 14, 2026, Clean Harbors, Inc. issued a press release announcing the completion of its acquisition of Terra Nova Solutions. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On February 18, 2026, Clean Harbors, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing the Company’s results of operations for the fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of that press release is furnished with this report as Exhibit 99.1.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Issuance of 5.750% Senior Notes due 2033 On October 9, 2025, Clean Harbors, Inc. (the “Company”), issued $745.0 million aggregate principal amount of 5.750% senior notes due 2033 (the “Notes”). The Company used a portion of the net proceeds from the offering of Notes and $1,260.0 million in borrowings under the Amended Credit Agreement (defined below) to refinance all of the approximately $1,457.3 million aggregate principal amount of secured senior…